FIFA World Cup 2026 Group Stage Odds and Breakdown

With 48 teams taking part this summer, World Cup 2026 will be the biggest edition of the tournament we have ever seen. The USA, Canada, and Mexico will stage 104 matches between them in June and July, and by the end of it all one team will be crowned champions of world soccer.

In this article, we have analyzed all 12 groups at the upcoming tournament. As well as revealing the latest World Cup group odds, we have made some predictions for the event and highlighted a key match-up in each section.

2026 World Cup Group Stage: Favorites and Underdogs

Which teams are expected to progress to the knockout phase, and which sides will have to upset the odds to do so? Here is our analysis of all 12 World Cup 2026 groups. All odds below are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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World Cup - Group A

⚽ Group A Teams: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia

Mexico enters the tournament as co-hosts and will benefit from massive crowd support in every match. However, they must also manage the heavy pressure of an expectant home fanbase, which could impact their consistency if early results falter. South Korea will rely heavily on Son Heung-min in what is likely his final World Cup appearance. They are dangerous on the counterattack but remain highly dependent on their star forward to generate offense. Czechia provides a tough matchup as a strong, direct team. Their physical style and efficiency on set pieces make them a serious contender to advance from the group. Finally, South Africa plays a tidy, possession-based style of soccer but lacks overall physicality. This size disadvantage will make it difficult for them to secure points against the more robust teams they will face.

• Key Matchup -  South Korea vs Czechia: With Mexico in pole position to win Group A, this clash will determine who finishes as runners-up.

• Predicted to Advance: Mexico and Czechia.

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World Cup - Group B

⚽ Group B Teams: Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland. 

The World Cup Group B odds rightly show Switzerland as the favorites. They caught the eye at Euro 2024 by reaching the quarter-finals and remain a well-coached team that avoids unforced errors. The battle for the second qualification spot will be highly competitive. Playing at home will serve Canada well, allowing the co-hosts to rely on crowd support and their team pace to pressure opponents. However, Bosnia & Herzegovina are also real contenders for a top-two finish. They carry momentum after stunning Italy in the play-offs, proving they can grind out results against top-tier competition. Finally, Qatar will struggle to qualify. They lack the defensive depth to keep pace with the rest of the group, leaving them as the underdogs in all three fixtures.

• Key Matchup - Switzerland vs Canada: If both teams perform well in their first two games, this will probably be a Group B decider on matchday three.

• Predicted to Advance: Switzerland and Canada.

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World Cup - Group C

⚽ Group C Teams: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland.

Brazil ranks among the strongest sides across all 2026 World Cup groups. With elite depth across the pitch, it is hard to envisage them encountering problems advancing from Group C. However, Morocco should not be underestimated. They bring proven tournament experience and a highly organized defense, making them a serious threat to take points off anyone. The remainder of the group faces a steep climb. Scotland enters a critical scenario where they must beat Haiti to stand any realistic chance of progressing to the round of 32. Haiti serves as the clear underdog and will likely focus on defending deep, but they could still disrupt the group standings if they force their opponents into dropping points.

• Key Matchup - Brazil vs Morocco: The Selecao will have to break down stubborn opposition in Morocco in their first outing.

• Predicted to Advance: Brazil and Morocco.

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World Cup - Group D

⚽ Group D Teams: USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey.

Of all the 2026 World Cup groups, this is arguably the hardest to predict. The betting lines will be tight, as it would not be a surprise to see any of these four teams advance. Turkey boasts the most top-level talent on their roster, giving them a slight edge on paper. However, the USA holds a critical advantage as tournament co-hosts, relying on home crowds to tilt close matches in their favor. Paraguay brings an organized, resolute defense that makes them difficult to break down, likely leading to low-scoring affairs. Meanwhile, Australia will lean on their renowned team cohesion and physical conditioning to grind out results. With no clear weak link to target for easy points, every fixture in this group carries massive qualification implications.

• Key Matchup - Turkey vs USA: The USA face their stiffest test in their third group game, as Turkey attempt to win Group D at their expense.

• Predicted to Advance: Turkey and USA.

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World Cup - Group E

⚽ Group E Teams: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao.

Germany is positioned as the heavy favorite to top the Group D standings. Under the tactical direction of Julian Nagelsmann, they feature elite offensive playmakers like Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz who can consistently break down opposing defenses. Behind them, the primary battle will be a two-way tussle for the second qualification spot between Ecuador and Ivory Coast. Their head-to-head matchup will likely decide who advances, pitting Ecuador's pace against Ivory Coast's physicality and tournament experience. Finally, Curacao enters as the clear outsider. They lack the necessary squad depth to compete at this level and will likely serve as the team the other three nations target to build their goal differential.

• Key Matchup - Ivory Coast vs Ecuador: Germany will back themselves to win Group E, leaving Ivory Coast and Ecuador to fight for second spot. 

• Predicted to Advance: Germany and Ecuador.

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World Cup - Group F

⚽ Group F Teams: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia.

The Netherlands enter Group F as the clear favorites to advance. Japan provides a strong challenge and carries a proven track record, having defeated both Spain and Germany to win their group at the 2022 World Cup. Sweden struggled with consistency during the qualifying rounds, but their elite attacking duo of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres gives them the direct firepower needed to secure points against any opponent. Meanwhile, Tunisia will rely on a highly structured, defensive approach. They will likely aim to keep matches tight and low-scoring, attempting to grind out enough results to quietly sneak into the knockout phase.

• Key Matchup - Netherlands vs Japan: This is a chance for the Samurai Blue to make a statement against a European heavyweight in their first group game.

• Predicted to Advance: Japan and Netherlands.

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World Cup - Group G

⚽ Group G Teams: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand. 

Belgium enters Group G as the clear favorite to advance. While much of their golden generation has retired, the Red Devils still retain enough top-level quality to control their fixtures and win the group. Behind them, the race for the second qualification spot is completely open. Both Egypt and Iran traditionally rely on structured, defensive tactics, and are expected to struggle with overall goal production. This low-scoring dynamic across the rest of the group creates a distinct opportunity for New Zealand, giving them a realistic chance to grind out enough results to secure a spot in the round of 32.

• Key Matchup - Egypt vs Iran: Belgium are the strongest team in Group G, with Egypt and Iran both targeting second place.

• Predicted to Advance: Belgium and Iran.

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World Cup - Group H

⚽ Group H Teams: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay.

Spain enters as the group favorite, building off their Euro 2024 title. Their technical, possession-based style will serve as a crucial advantage in managing the taxing summer heat and humidity of North America. Behind them, Uruguay manager Marcelo Bielsa faces significant pressure heading into the tournament. However, the South American squad still holds a clear talent advantage over the rest of the group. They should have enough firepower to comfortably handle both Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, who lack the depth required to consistently challenge the top two teams for a qualification spot.

• Key Matchup - Uruguay vs Spain: Spain, the European champions, must be fully focused against a Uruguay team that relish being underdogs.

• Predicted to Advance: Spain and Uruguay.

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World Cup - Group I

⚽ Group I Teams: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway.

France enters Group I as the favorites. Having won the tournament in 2018 and reached the final in 2022, they know how to navigate the group stage under Didier Deschamps. The race for the second spot will be contested between Norway and Senegal. Norway offers direct offensive power with Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, giving them a clear scoring threat. However, Senegal brings physical and tactical discipline, making them capable of taking points from the other contenders. Iraq rounds out the group as the outsider. They will struggle to match the talent of their opponents and are expected to be the team the others target to build their goal differential.

• Key Matchup - Norway vs France: Erling Haaland’s Norway will go head-to-head with Kylian Mbappe’s France on matchday three in Group I.

• Predicted to Advance: France and Senegal.

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World Cup - Group J

Argentina enters Group J aiming to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to win back-to-back World Cups. While their current roster may not be as strong as the squad that won in 2022, they still hold a clear talent advantage over the rest of the group. The primary battle for the second qualification spot will be between Austria and Algeria. Both teams will likely target each other to secure the points needed to advance behind the reigning champions. Jordan makes their tournament debut as an unknown quantity. While they lack World Cup experience, they could potentially disrupt the standings if they manage to frustrate the more established teams.

⚽ Group J Teams: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan.

• Key Matchup - Algeria vs Austria: The winner of this clash in Kansas City will be the favorites to join Argentina in the round of 32.

• Predicted to Advance: Argentina and Algeria.

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World Cup - Group K

⚽ Group K Teams: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia. 

Cristiano Ronaldo continues to generate headlines, but Portugal are arguably a better team without their talisman. Colombia presents a serious challenge and will compete directly with Portugal to win the group. DR Congo serves as a dark horse in the section, with a realistic chance to secure enough points to reach the round of 32. Uzbekistan rounds out the group making their World Cup debut, and their lack of tournament experience will make it difficult for them to advance.

• Key Matchup - Colombia vs Portugal: This will be Portugal’s first major test at World Cup 2026, with Colombia more than capable of giving them a game.

• Predicted to Advance: Portugal and Colombia.

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World Cup - Group L

⚽ Group L Teams: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama. 

This group features two European teams in England and Croatia. Under Thomas Tuchel, England enters as the favorite, aiming to win an overseas tournament for the first time. Croatia remains a proven tournament team, still led by the experience of Luka Modric. Ghana presents a difficult matchup and has the potential to take points from the group leaders and push for a qualification spot. Meanwhile, Panama is the clear favorite to finish at the bottom of the standings and will struggle to compete with the rest of the group.

• Key Matchup - England vs Croatia: These two teams have played each other numerous times in recent years, but this is still an intriguing encounter. 

• Predicted to Advance: England and Croatia.

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The World Cup 2026 Dark Horses

Every World Cup features at least one surprise package. Here are four teams who will likely punch above their weight.

• Japan: Japan caught the eye four years ago, beating both Spain and Germany in the group stage. The Samurai Blue are Asia’s best hope of a first world champion.

• Mexico: With home advantage on their side, Mexico are aiming to reach the latter stages of World Cup 2026. El Tri have been building towards this moment for years.

• Ecuador: Ecuador had one of the youngest squads at World Cup 2022. Four years on, their gifted group of players is capable of springing a surprise or two.

• Switzerland: The draw has been kind to Switzerland, especially after Italy failed to qualify via the play-offs. They impressed at Euro 2024 and are one to watch in North America.

Understanding the New 2026 Group Stage Format

The expansion of the World Cup has forced FIFA to tinker with the format. There will be 12 groups of four at the upcoming edition, with the eight best third-place finishers advancing to the round of 32 alongside the group winners and runners-up.

This new structure changes how teams approach the group stage. Goal differential and avoiding heavy defeats will be critical for teams fighting for those third-place spots. It also introduces an entirely new knockout phase, meaning the eventual champions will need to navigate an eight-game schedule. For a complete breakdown of how the knockout pathways work, check out our in-depth guide on the World Cup 48 team bracket.

The Favorites: Who is Most Likely to Win the 2026 World Cup? 

The following four teams are the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup in North America.

• France: Les Bleus possess unmatched depth, experience, and prime-age superstar talent. They have reached the last two finals and are strong contenders in 2026.

• Brazil: Brazil’s attacking firepower is up there with the best, and the five-time champions are not short of motivation having now gone 22 years without winning the World Cup.

• England: The Premier League is the strongest league in the world, so England have an elite domestic talent pool to choose from. In addition, Thomas Tuchel is a world-class coach.

• Spain: Spain are the reigning European champions and they are now aiming to triumph on the world stage. Their possession game is ideally suited to the heat of North America.

Who Lifts the World Cup 2026 Trophy?

We are backing Brazil to lift the 2026 World Cup trophy. Even with the managerial shift to Dorival Júnior, the Seleção still boast an unmatched depth of elite attacking talent. Their current roster is built to efficiently break down defensive blocks during the group stage and outpace opponents in the newly expanded, eight-game knockout format. With a highly favorable projected pathway and elite players competing at the highest levels of European club soccer, Brazil has the ideal mix of experience and firepower to win FIFA World Cup 2026. We expect them to edge out France in the final.