AGA Estimates $3.3 Billion Will be Wagered on March Madness

• The AGA estimates a 6% increase in wagers year-over-year

• States banning player prop bets will slow growth for this year’s tournament

• The impact prediction markets will have remains unknown

March Madness has been the most wagered-on event in the world, and it doesn’t appear that will change in 2026.

The American Gaming Association has projected over $3.3 billion in bets placed during this year’s NCAA Tournament. That number represents a 6% increase year-over-year, which is smaller than in years past. While bettor fatigue and the lack of new markets played a factor in that, the estimated betting handle would still be the highest in history. 

One factor in the growth of March Madness betting was the new Missouri market. The state launched mobile sports betting on December 1, making this year’s tournament the first one it will be live for. 

The biggest reason for the drop in growth compared to past seasons is a push to ban player prop bets on college athletes. NCAA President Charlie Baker has called on states to eliminate the controversial bet type, with several states complying. While those states will still offer betting on game winners, spreads, and totals, the lack of prop bets will result in a massive drop in their betting handle. 

The estimated $3.3 billion handle would be roughly double that seen during February’s Super Bowl.

Prediction Markets Not Included in Estimate

One other reason for the AGA’s lower handle projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament is the rise of sports prediction markets. The industry has taken off over the last year while remaining largely unregulated. That has allowed them to operate in all 50 states, including those without legal sports betting.

While the AGA’s estimate accounts for prediction markets, it's hard to know how large the industry’s impact will be. 

Only a handful of operators were live for last season’s tournament, but this year will feature a vastly more robust market. That means they could easily outearn projections while taking a big chunk out of the sports betting industry’s handle.