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March Madness Final Four Predictions, Odds, Picks 2025: Transfer Portal Chaos Shifting Betting Odds

Written by: Andrew Norton
Updated November 4, 2024
17 min read
  • Head coach Dan Hurley and the UConn Huskies seek a three-peat in 2024-25 after going back-to-back for the first time since the Florida Gators in 2006 and 2007. The Huskies have beaten every NCAA Tournament in the past two seasons by double-digit points.

  • The Huskies have won four Final Fours since 2011, by far the most in the country in that span.

  • The 2023 NCAA Tournament was the first time that a No. 1, 2, and 3 seed failed to make the Final Four.

The 2024 Final Four featured two No. 1 seeds, one No. 4 seed, and one No. 11 seed, which resulted in a far more predictable Final Four than the previous year. Will we see something more predictable in 2025, especially given the momentum that NIL deals and the transfer portal have given to major programs?

Early signs point to the powerhouse programs having another dominant season due to money, reputation, and exposure opportunities.

The transfer portal has turned into a second form of recruiting, as it seems like few players stay at just one college for their entire career anymore. So, which teams have positioned themselves well entering the 2024-25 college basketball season? Let’s get into it below.

March Madness Final Four/Championship Odds 

The difference between March Madness Final Four odds and NCAA Tournament championship odds is that it only takes four wins in the NCAA Tournament to make the Final Four, but six games (two more) to win the whole tournament.

Therefore, Final Four odds will always be shorter (more likely) than NCAA Tournament championship odds.

Below is a table we will fill in with the Final Four odds once they are available.

Disclaimer: The table in this section currently has NCAA Tournament championship odds (from FanDuel Sportsbook) since the Final Four odds have not been released. Once they drop, we will update the table to reflect those changes. Place your bets at FanDuel and claim the following bonus: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

TeamOdds
Duke Blue Devils+950
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UConn Huskies+1100
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Houston Cougars+1100
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Kansas Jayhawks+1100
BET HERE
Alabama Crimson Tide+1200
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Gonzaga Bulldogs+1600
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Iowa State Cyclones+1600
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Auburn Tigers+2000
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Arizona Wildcats+2500
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North Carolina Tar Heels+2500
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Baylor Bears+3000
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Arkansas Razorbacks+3000
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Creighton Bluejays+4000
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Tennessee Volunteers+4000
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Texas Tech Red Raiders+4000
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St. John’s Red Storm+4000
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Purdue Boilermakers+4000
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Kentucky Wildcats+4000
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Indiana Hoosiers+5000
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Ohio State Buckeyes+6000
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights+6000
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Cincinnati Bearcats+6000
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Marquette Golden Eagles+6000
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Michigan Wolverines+6000
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BYU Cougars+6000
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Florida Gators+6000
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Texas Longhorns+6000
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Michigan State Spartans+6000
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Kansas State Wildcats+7500
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Miami Hurricanes+7500
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Final Four Predictions

March Madness Final Four Predictions - Favorites to Make Final Four 

In the section below, we cover our March Madness Final Four predictions, which include the teams listed below.

Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks (+1100) at FanDuel

The Kansas Jayhawks are one of just five D-I teams with no players hitting the transfer portal, joining Army, Navy, Marquette, and Binghamton. 

If that does not tell you about this incoming team’s culture, chemistry, focus, and determination, then it is hard to say what would. 

It should not be difficult to explain Army and Navy’s overall roster retention, but for the Jayhawks to be one of the other teams as a major D-I program is shocking and a perfect indication of how these players feel about head coach Bill Self, the Jayhawks’ program, and their fans.

Kansas retained 7-foot-2 do-it-all center Hunter Dickinson after acquiring him in the transfer portal last spring; he will be undoubtedly one of the best big men in the nation again after averaging roughly 18 points and 11 rebounds on a 55/35/62 shooting split. 

A slight improvement in 3-point and free throw shooting would make Dickinson arguably the most well-rounded overall player (or at least one of them) in college basketball. 

Two other starters from the 2023-24 Jayhawks team return alongside Dickinson, including K.J. Adams Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr., two players who have already won National Championships before.

Then, Bill Self decided that he would dominate the transfer portal in a similar fashion to another team listed below. 

Self brought in Zeke Mayo, a guard transfer from South Dakota State, guard Rylan Griffen, a sharpshooter from Alabama’s Final Four team, and standout guard A.J. Storr from Wisconsin. Talk about a ridiculous haul.

Kansas was a consensus top-25 team for essentially the entire year but a late-season injury to Kevin McCullar Jr. derailed its championship hopes. 

The Jayhawks had an abundance of talent during the 2023-24 campaign, but that team will pale in comparison to the talent and depth they have this year. 

In fact, Kansas also signed a 5-star freshman center, Flory Bidunga, who was ranked as the No. 17 prospect in the ESPN 100. 

The frontcourt of Dickinson, Storr, and Adams Jr. will be undoubtedly one of the top two or three units in the nation. If depth is considered in that frontcourt ranking, the Jayhawks might rise to No. 1, as Bidunga will be coming off the bench.

The backcourt for Kansas is equally as dangerous, with Griffen, Harris, and Mayo. 

The Jayhawks will be the team to beat entering the 2024-25 regular season. Anything short of Big 12 regular season and conference tournament titles, as well as a serious run at a National Championship should be considered a failure for this beyond-loaded squad.

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Favorite: Alabama Crimson Tide (+1200) at FanDuel

The big question entering this season for the Alabama Crimson Tide was whether or not star point guard Mark Sears would return or declare for the 2024 NBA Draft.

Sears opted to return after getting feedback from teams in the pre-draft process, skyrocketing the Crimson Tide back into title contention.

Last season, Sears posted 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game on a head-scratchingly efficient 51/44/86 shooting split. 

When the NCAA Tournament rolled around, Sears was even better, scoring 24.2 points per game on a 68.8% true shooting percentage. 

Sears’ postseason play, experience, and poise are all reasons to feel good about backing the Crimson Tide to make the Final Four!

On the season, Sears led the high-octane Crimson Tide offense to finish second in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, finishing only behind the unstoppable UConn Huskies team in that category.

Sears will be joined by three other key returners, including 6-foot-11 unicorn forward Grant Nelson (11.9 PPG and 5.9 RPG on 48.8% shooting), Jarin Stevenson (5.3 PPG on 41.8% from the floor), and Latrell Wrightsell Jr (8.9 PPG on 44.7% from 3-point land).

Between those four players, the Crimson Tide would already be a legitimate contender, but head coach Nate Oats hit the transfer portal and recruiting trail hard, too.

Oats’ portal haul features former 5-star point guard Aden Holloway (Auburn), elite rim protector and double-double monster Clifford Omoruyi (Rutgers), three-level scoring wing Chris Youngblood (South Florida), and sharpshooter Houston Mallette (Pepperdine).

A few of Alabama’s incoming recruits could also see some floor time and help bolster what will already be an outrageously talented squad. Oats brought in three Top-30 recruits, including Derrion Reid (No. 11), Auden Sherrell (No. 21), and Labaron Philon (No. 30).

So, in short, Alabama has one of the best portal classes, one of the best recruiting classes, and one of the best-returning units in the country. 

The Crimson Tide will again be a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end of the floor, but if they can improve defensively, which shouldn’t be too much of an issue now that Omoruyi will be patrolling the paint and helping to limit opponents’ interior scoring, they will become nearly unbeatable.

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Long Shot: Indiana Hoosiers (+5000) at FanDuel

The 2023-24 regular season was underwhelming for Hoosiers fans, especially since head coach Mike Woodson didn’t move on from the antiquated “two-big” offensive concept that only worked when he had Trayce Jackson-Davis, a playmaking hub, to revolve the offense around the season before.

Still, look at who they brought back from last season’s team, who they brought in from the transfer portal, and who they recruited to the program out of high school. 

Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako are big-time offensive weapons and have another year of college basketball under their belt. 

Reneau averaged just shy of 16 points, six rebounds, and three assists per game on 55.8% shooting from the field, while Mgbako struggled in the beginning of the season but posted nearly 15 points per game in the last 17 games of his freshman season.

Indiana also brought back super senior guards Trey Galloway and Anthony Leal. Leal did not get much playing time but can provide valuable defense and 3-point shooting when he is on the floor. 

On the other hand, Galloway struggled with his shooting from the perimeter last season, but his passing, defense, and slashing abilities have allowed him to be a highly effective player for several years; he averaged close to 11 points and five assists per game for the Hoosiers.

Additionally, Indiana gets Gabe Cupps back, who logged many minutes as a freshman and could be a valuable backup in the rotation, and Jakai Newton, a consensus 4-star and Top 100 recruit from the 2023 class, will return after missing the entire season with an injury.

That collection of players would make Indiana at least a halfway decent team entering the 2024-25 regular season, but the Hoosiers have a whole lot more incoming, including freshman 5-star forward Bryson Tucker and transfers Oumar Ballo (Arizona), Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford), Myles Rice (Washington State), and Luke Goode (Illinois). 

Ballo was the best player in the portal after yet another dominating season for the Arizona Wildcats. Ballo posted 13 points and 10 rebounds per game on an astonishing 65.8% shooting from the field. 

We also expect Reneau to continue his transition to the power forward position full-time, which means he should take a major leap in his perimeter game and 3-point shooting. 

Rice and Carlyle were also two of the most highly-coveted guard transfers in the portal and should help immensely with guard play, which, besides 3-point shooting, has been by far the team’s biggest weakness. 

The questions entering this season for IU will be whether they can improve their 3-point shooting and whether Woodson can coach at a high enough level to compete with coaches like Dan Hurley, Mark Few, Kelvin Sampson, and Bill Self.

Only time will tell, but from an experience and individual talent standpoint, this team has what it takes to be one of the best teams in the nation. 

Health and chemistry will be imperative, and Woodson has to elevate his coaching, which includes the team’s half-court offense and the sets associated with it. But the sky is the limit if they can click and address all of the aforementioned concerns in the 2024-25 season.

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Stay Away: Purdue Boilermakers (+4000) at FanDuel

After winning back-to-back Wooden Awards, Zach Edey opted to declare for the NBA Draft and was consequently selected ninth overall by the Memphis Grizzlies.

Edey dominated college basketball at 7-foot-4 with great footwork, touch, balance, and upper and lower body strength; he was an unstoppable force.

In fact, he averaged an incredulous 25.2 points and 12.2 rebounds per game on 62.3% shooting from the field last season while carrying the Boilermakers to the National Championship game. 

Besides scoring and dominating the glass, Edey also had a high offensive gravity, allowing Purdue’s other players to get open for clean inside-out 3-point looks. 

That is how Purdue catapulted from a bottom-third 3-point shooting team in 2022-23 to the second-best in the country last year.

Without Edey absorbing so much of the focus from opposing defenses, Purdue’s 3-point shooting could plummet. And without a force like Edey in the post, the Boilers won’t have nearly as much paint scoring.

The Boilermakers also lost sharpshooting forward Mason Gillis (46.3% from 3-point land) to the transfer portal and third-leading scorer and combo guard Lance Jones to eligibility.

Braden Smith will be fantastic; Fletcher Loyer will knock down some 3s; Camden Heide will surprise some fans. However, the Boilers won’t be anywhere near a Final Four-caliber squad in 2024-25.

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Who Will Win the March Madness Final Four - My Pick 

Indiana Hoosiers (+5000) at FanDuel

Where there is value, I will always follow. Concerns about 3-point shooting and Woodson as a head coach are valid to some degree. 

But look no further than the Purdue Boilermakers in the 2023-24 season as a team that was able to fix their 3-point shooting as a team from one season to the next. 

Indiana does not need to make that drastic a change, as the Boilers catapulted from the bottom third of the country in 3P% in 2022-23 to first in 3P% in 2023-24; however, a significant leap in this area would instantly make the Hoosiers a Final Four dark horse 

Myles Rice, Kanaan Carlyle, Oumar Ballo, and Luke Goode joining forces with Malik Reneau, Mackenzie Mgbako, and Trey Galloway gives IU the size, interior play, scoring talent, defense, and rebounding necessary to compete with any team in America. 

It will all come down to how much these players work on their 3-point shooting and whether Woodson can improve his half-court offensive sets and be less stubborn in general. Adapting is imperative in college basketball; sometimes, you have to throw game plans out the window and hit the reset button.

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Who Won the March Madness Final Four in 2023

The 2024 Final Four included two No. 1 seeds (Purdue Boilermakers and UConn Huskies), one No. 4 seed (Alabama Crimson Tide), and one No. 11 seed (N.C. State Wolfpack).

UConn and Alabama faced off in one of the Final Four matchups, with the Huskies winning by double-digits via a dominating second half. 

On the other side of the bracket, the N.C. State Wolfpack battled with the Purdue Boilermakers but fell short in their unlikely quest to make the National Championship game, leaving Purdue and UConn. Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, they were unable to secure the program’s first title, as the Huskies crushed them from start to finish.

In 2024, UConn added a sixth National Championship banner and the second one in the past two seasons. Can the Huskies become just the second program in college basketball history to win three consecutive titles?

March Madness Final Four History

The first year of the NCAA Tournament was in 1939, and it featured eight teams; however, it was not until the 1960s that the phrase “Final Four” was first used in reference to the tournament. The term became even more popularized in 1975 when Ed Chay, a Cleveland sports writer, used it in an article. 

The phrase “March Madness” was first used in conjunction with basketball by an assistant executive secretary (Henry V. Porter) for the IHSA (Illinois High School Association.) Interestingly enough, he used this phrase to describe basketball in the month of March in 1939, which just so happened to be the first year of the NCAA Tournament.

Past March Madness Final Four Winners

Check out the past 15 years of March Madness Final Four teams, beginning with the most recent seasons:

Final Four TeamsYear
UConn Huskies, Purdue Boilermakers,  Alabama Crimson Tide, N.C. State Wolfpack2024
UConn Huskies, San Diego State Aztecs, Miami Hurricanes, and Florida Atlantic Owls2023
Kansas Jayhawks, Villanova Wildcats, Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels2022
Baylor Bears, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Houston Cougars, UCLA Bruins2021
Virginia Cavaliers, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Auburn Tigers, Michigan State Spartans2019
Villanova Wildcats, Michigan Wolverines, Kansas Jayhawks, Loyola-Chicago Ramblers2018
North Carolina Tar Heels, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Oregon Ducks, South Carolina Gamecocks2017
Villanova Wildcats, North Carolina Tar Heels, Oklahoma Sooners, Syracuse Orange2016
Duke Blue Devils, Wisconsin Badgers, Kentucky Wildcats, Michigan State Spartans2015
UConn Huskies, Kentucky Wildcats, Florida Gators, Wisconsin Badgers2014
Louisville Cardinals, Michigan Wolverines, Syracuse Orange, Wichita State Shockers2013
Kentucky Wildcats, Kansas Jayhawks, Louisville Cardinals, Ohio State Buckeyes2012
UConn Huskies, Butler Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, VCU Rams2011
Duke Blue Devils, Butler Bulldogs, Michigan State Spartans, West Virginia Mountaineers2010
North Carolina Tar Heels, Michigan State Spartans, UConn Huskies, Villanova Wildcats2009
Kansas Jayhawks, Memphis Tigers, North Carolina Tar Heels, UCLA Bruins2008

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the March Madness Final Four

With so many sportsbooks available, choosing which one to use can be overwhelming, especially if you are new to online sports betting. However, this section can hopefully make the process a little clearer.

Several factors can go into choosing a sportsbook, including the user interface, app navigability, betting odds, betting types, payment options, and the sports offered. Bettors who are more experienced (and bet more frequently) often have numerous online sportsbooks, so they can always find the best odds and promotions to get a betting edge.

Some of the most popular sportsbooks are BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel; the table below should simplify the process for you, detailing pertinent information for each online sportsbook! Let's have a look.

BetMGMCaesarsFanDuel
March Madness Final Four Winner OddsOdds Not AvailableOdds Not AvailableOdds Not Available
Welcome BonusBet $10, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly$1,000 First Bet on Caesars OR $250 in Bonus BetsBet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins 
Payment Options- ACH Payments Bank Transfer
- Visa
- Mastercard
- American Express
- Discover credit card
- PayPal
- Neteller
- Skrill
- ACH/ Instant Check- Credit Cards (Visa and Mastercard)
- Debit Cards
- Online Bank Transfer
- PayPal
- Caesars Prepaid Play+ Card
- Skrill
- ACH Payments Bank Transfer
- Mastercard
- Visa
- FanDuel Prepaid Card
- Online Transfer
- Wire Transfer
- PayPal
Withdrawal TimeInstantUp to 72 hours Instant
Bet on March Madness Final Four HereBET HEREBET HEREBET HERE

How to Read March Madness Final Four Odds

If you are a new bettor and reading betting odds overwhelms you, do not worry. We will break it down as simply as possible for you ahead of March Madness, one of the biggest sporting events in the world!

If there is a minus sign (-) in front of a team’s Final Four odds, then they are a favorite, meaning their implied probability is greater than 50%. For example, if the Houston Cougars have Final Four odds of -115, then you would have to bet $115 to win $100. 

Conversely, if a team is an underdog, then they will have a plus sign (+) in front of their Final Four odds. If the Creighton Bluejays are +450 to make the Final Four, then a bettor would have to bet $100 to win $450.

March Madness Final Four FAQ

Who is favored to win the March Madness Final Four?

When is the March Madness Final Four?

Where is the March Madness Final Four?

What Channel is the March Madness Final Four on?

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Andrew Norton WSN

Andrew Norton

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
NCAAB
Betting Picks
Andrew has always been an avid sports fan and followed his hoop dreams all the way to college. He’s well-versed in everything betting with multiple years of experience and is qualitatively and quantitatively knowledgeable in sports statistics and analytics.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience: 5 years
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