March Madness Final Four Predictions, Odds, Picks 2024

• Only one double-digit seed, the No. 11 N.C. State Wolfpack made it to the Sweet 16 in this season’s NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack have won seven consecutive games, including five games in five days in the ACC Tournament.

• Two teams, the Houston Cougars and UConn Huskies, are currently favorites to make the 2024 Final Four.

• UConn has won three of the past 12 NCAA Tournaments and is a favorite to make the Final Four again.   

The Sweet 16 begins on Thursday, with mostly high seeds battling for a spot in the Elite Eight. N.C. State is the only double-digit seed to have a shot at the Final Four, while No.  5 San Diego State and No. 6 Clemson are the only other relative underdogs in the running.

Will the UConn Huskies repeat as champions this season, or will we see another “Blue Blood” like Duke or North Carolina add another title to their showcase?

Below, we analyze the remaining Sweet 16 teams and their respective odds of making a Final Four this season. Check it out!

March Madness Final Four Odds 

To make the Final Four, a team must win four straight games (or five if it is in a “First Four” game) in the NCAA Tournament. The table below lists the Sweet 16 teams and their respective odds to make the March Madness Final Four, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Check out our Ride the Line podcast and hear more insights on Final Four by our in-house experts Tanner Kern and Grant Mitchell. Just hit the play button on the video below!

March Madness Final Four Predictions - Favorites to Make Final Four 

In the section below, we cover our March Madness Final Four predictions, which include the teams listed below.

Tennessee Volunteers

After decimating Saint Peter’s in their Round of 64 game, the Tennessee Volunteers were tested against the No. 7 Texas Longhorns, a team that had a lot more talent than their seed indicated. Tennessee had created a double-digit lead on the Longhorns but a horrible offensive stretch allowed them to climb back into the game.

In fact, at one point, the Vols were just 1-for-21 from behind the arc, which could hardly be attributed to Texas’ middle-of-the-road perimeter defense that allowed opponents to shoot 33.6% from deep this season. 

Despite their shooting draught (33.8% from the field and 12% from behind the arc), Tennessee still found a way to win, leaning on its defense and rebounding to carry it over the finish line.

The Vols held Texas (29th in adjusted offensive efficiency) to merely 36.4% shooting from the field and 30.4% from three-point land; they also pulled down eight more rebounds than the Longhorns and forced them into 16 turnovers. 

This is what makes Tennessee so dangerous. If the Vols can beat a formidable opponent despite missing 20 of their first 21 three-point attempts, who can’t they beat when they are firing on all cylinders? Regardless, they aren’t a bad three-point shooting team, knocking down roughly 34% of their attempts!

Tennessee is also a very tough team and could wear down teams like Creighton and Purdue, the two teams it will likely have to play to get to the Final Four, with its physicality. Additionally, it is promising for Vols backers to see a more concerted effort on the defensive glass, as they have pulled down nearly 81% of their opponent’s misses in their past three outings.

This Tennessee squad added the only piece they were missing last season: Dalton Knecht. Knecht has the offensive capability to carry this team on his back. Look out for the Vols!

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North Carolina Tar Heels

We didn’t need any more convincing of the viability of a North Carolina Final Four bet after the Tar Heels’ road win against rival Duke in the always-scary Cameron Indoor Stadium. UNC didn’t look rattled one bit, holding a nine-point halftime lead on its way to a clean sweep of the Blue Devils this season. 

Yet, the Heels have continued to impress heading into their Sweet 16 matchup against the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide. UNC drew a tough Round of 32 matchup against the No. 8 seed Michigan State Spartans, a team that was the fourth-ranked team in the preseason.

Even though the Spartans had a disappointing season, they were still regarded as a solid team, especially in many advanced analytics, like KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. Michigan State jumped on UNC in the first half, but the Heels stormed back, overcoming a double-digit deficit to a shocking nine-point halftime lead. They didn’t look back after that, winning by 16 points.

From the near-midpoint of the first half to the end of the game, UNC won by close to 30 points, establishing its dominance on both ends of the floor. The Tar Heels protected the ball (five turnovers), hit their perimeter shots (38.5%), and got to the free-throw line (and converted those attempts), knocking down 83% of their 23 attempts.

North Carolina’s aptitude on the defensive end (sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom) and rebounding ability (17th in total rebounding rate, fourth in DREB%) make it a “hard out” in the NCAA Tournament, but the duo of Davis and Bacot make the Heels a legitimate Final Four candidate.

Those two players are used to playing in games of this magnitude, as they were on the Tar Heels’ runner-up team two seasons ago. Don’t expect this team to be on upset alert any time soon.

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Arizona Wildcats

The next two games for Arizona will be against the No. 6 Clemson Tigers, who had lost three of their past four games (Boston College, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame) leading up to the NCAA Tournament, and the winner of No. 4 Duke versus No. 4 Alabama. We really like the Wildcats’ odds of getting to the Final Four this season.

Arizona’s first two games of the NCAA Tournament have been somewhat sweatless, as it beat Long Beach State by 20 and followed that up with a ten-point win against the Dayton Flyers. Despite an underwhelming night on the offensive glass, where it ranks 17th in offensive rebounding percentage in the nation, the ‘Cats still dominated the Flyers. 

In fact, they shot close to 53% from the field and 44% from behind the arc. Arizona also won the rebounding battle overall, which has been the case for most of its games this season.

The Wildcats have yet to be tested in the NCAA Tournament, truly, and we don’t see that happening against Clemson.

Arizona is one of only three teams that ranks in the top ten in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, per KenPom. The Wildcats also rank third in total rebounding rate, third in points per game, 24th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in three-point percentage, and 49th in opponent turnovers per game.

Simply put, the Wildcats are loaded with talent and committed on both ends of the floor. Few remaining teams have depth comparable to Arizona. Head coach Tommy Lloyd has no issue turning to his bench, which gives the ‘Cats an advantage against other teams that could struggle if players get into foul trouble.

The combination of Caleb Love, Pelle Larsson, Oumar Ballo, Keshad Johnson, Jaden Bradley, K.J. Lewis, and Kylan Boswell can get past Clemson and either North Carolina or Alabama without much of a sweat.

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Gonzaga Bulldogs

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have caught fire at the perfect time of the season. In fact, Gonzaga has won 16 of its past 18 games (two losses to Saint Mary’s), including victories against Kansas (last week) and Kentucky on the road. 

It gets even crazier. The offensive clinic that the Bulldogs have put on, particularly in their past ten games, has been beyond sensational. In that stretch, they have shot 55.3% from the field and 44.2% from behind the arc. Even more impressive has been the ‘Zags averaging just 8.4 turnovers per game in that stretch despite playing at a fast pace (86th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom). 

Gonzaga struggled at times in the first half of the 2023-24 season, especially on the defensive end of the floor, but it has held opponents to just 41.6% shooting overall in its past ten games and has climbed to 42nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Zags don’t have quite as much pop as they did with Drew Timme as the offensive focal point, but they still have knock-down shooters (Anton Watson and Nolan Hickman), a talented lead guard (Ryan Nembhard), and a two-way big man (Graham Ike).

With Gonzaga’s recent shooting, it is not inconceivable that this team would make the Final Four.

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Who Will Win the March Madness Final Four - My Pick 

Tennessee Volunteers (+230) at DraftKings Sportsbook

At some point in the Final Four, the Vols might get overpowered by an opponent with similarly disciplined and intense defense, better rebounding, and more scoring options. Further, despite his seemingly superhuman output, we have seen stars like Dalton Knecht run out of energy at the tail end of an NCAA Tournament run before. However, the likelihood of this Vols team getting knocked off before the Final Four seems thin; they have slaughtered inferior opponents all season long and there is no guarantee that the Purdue Boilermakers, who are playing with a ton of pressure after last year’s early exit, will make the Elite Eight. Even if they do, Tennessee has the physicality to tire reigning Naismith Award winner Zach Edey.

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Who Won the March Madness Final Four in 2023

The 2023 Final Four included the No. 9 seeded Florida Atlantic Owls, the No. 5 seeded Miami Hurricanes, the No. 4 seeded UConn Huskies, and the No. 5 seeded San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs prevailed in a narrow, one-point game against Florida Atlantic to make the championship game, while the Huskies controlled Miami from tip-off to the final horn. Then, the Huskies drubbed the Aztecs in the championship game, giving UConn its fifth national championship.

March Madness Final Four History

The first year of the NCAA Tournament was in 1939, and it featured eight teams; however, it was not until the 1960s that the phrase “Final Four” was first used in reference to the tournament. The term became even more popularized in 1975 when Ed Chay, a Cleveland sports writer, used it in an article. 

The phrase “March Madness” was first used in conjunction with basketball by an assistant executive secretary (Henry V. Porter) for the IHSA (Illinois High School Association.) Interestingly enough, he used this phrase to describe basketball in the month of March in 1939, which just so happened to be the first year of the NCAA Tournament.

Past March Madness Final Four Winners

Check out the past 15 years of March Madness Final Four teams, beginning with the most recent seasons:

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the March Madness Final Four

With so many sportsbooks available, choosing which one to use can be overwhelming, especially if you are new to online sports betting. However, this section can hopefully make the process a little clearer.

Several factors can go into choosing a sportsbook, including the user interface, app navigability, betting odds, betting types, payment options, and the sports offered. Bettors who are more experienced (and bet more frequently) often have numerous online sportsbooks, so they can always find the best odds and promotions to get a betting edge.

Some of the most popular sportsbooks are BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel; the table below should simplify the process for you, detailing pertinent information for each online sportsbook! Let's have a look.

How to Read March Madness Final Four Odds

If you are a new bettor and reading betting odds overwhelms you, do not worry. We will break it down as simply as possible for you ahead of March Madness, one of the biggest sporting events in the world!

If there is a minus sign (-) in front of a team’s Final Four odds, then they are a favorite, meaning their implied probability is greater than 50%. For example, if the Houston Cougars have Final Four odds of -115, then you would have to bet $115 to win $100. 

Conversely, if a team is an underdog, then they will have a plus sign (+) in front of their Final Four odds. If the Creighton Bluejays are +450 to make the Final Four, then a bettor would have to bet $100 to win $450.