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Most Likely Upsets March Madness 2024

Written by: Michael Savio
Updated March 18, 2024
8 min read

March Madness is officially here!

A wild Championship Week saw several favorites lose, leading to many bubble teams' hopes dashed on Selection Sunday. 

This year’s Tournament field promises some fantastic matchups. We saw many mid-majors succeed last year, leading to many savvy bettors winning big betting on underdogs. We expect more of the same in 2024 and are here to help you capitalize.

Below are some of our favorite upset picks for the tournament's opening round. We’ll give you the latest odds and insights to help you bet confidently this week.

Also, have a closer look at our podcast Ride the Line and get extra tips on March Madness Upsets by our in-house experts Tanner Kern and Grant Mitchell.

Just hit Play on the video below!

#11 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. #6 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Team Spread Moneyline Total
NC State +4.5 (-110) +170 Over 145.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -4.5 (-110) -205 Under 145.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Sign up today to claim $150 in Bonus Bets!

One week ago, this NC State team looked destined for the NIT after losing their final four games of the season. That changed this week when the Wolfpack made a stunning run to win the ACC Tournament. The team looked unstoppable, defeating #11 Duke, Virginia, and #4 North Carolina. 

We are betting on NC State to advance thanks to their recent play. While some believe they will be emotionally drained, we see a team already in tournament mode. Conversely, Texas Tech was blown out by Houston in its second Big 12 Tournament game. The Raiders managed to win an impressive win over Baylor to end the season, but they lost three of their previous six. Texas Tech had the better season, but they won’t be able to match the level that NC State is currently playing at.

The other reason we love this upset is the Wolfpack’s combination of DJ Burns and DJ Horne. Burns was fantastic during their ACC Tournament run, posting 39 points and making over 73% over their final two games. He is a massive presence down low and more physical than Texas Tech’s Warren Washington. 

DJ Horne has been the Wolfpack’s top sorcerer all season, and he has tournament experience from last season when he was at Arizona State. In the team's two games, he scored 37 points while making 63.2% of his shots and 80%. He is a big-time player and will prove that against Texas Tech this week.

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#10 Nevada Wolfpack vs. #7 Dayton Flyers

Team Spread  Moneyline Total
Nevada -1.5 (-102) -110 Over 135.5 (-115)
Dayton +1.5 (-120) -110 Under 135.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Use this link for a chance to win $200 in Bonus Bets.

We are selling hard on Dayton heading into the NCAA Tournament. While the advanced stats loved this team, they sputtered and burned out to close the season. They have now lost three of their last six games, avoiding a fourth with an overtime win against VCU. It led to a drop in the Flyers’ KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin (+17.30), landing them just four spots ahead of Nevada (+16.81).

Dayton and Nevada are both balanced teams. The Flyers have a solid point differential of +8.4, which led the A-10. The Wolfpack were slightly better, finishing with a differential of +9.3. The most significant difference between these two teams is their ability to shoot from three, with Dayon posting the third-best percentage in the country (40.2%). That advantage is dangerous, but can it carry over against a good Nevada defense?

While Dayton stumbled at the end of the season, Nevada has been red hot. While they lost in the Mountain West Tournament, they won ten of their final 11 games of the season. The run included wins over four tournament teams: Colorado State, Utah State, San Diego State, and Boise State. Those are good teams, far better than any the Flyers have seen lately. 

That experience will make the difference, leading to a first-round upset win for Nevada.

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#12 James Madison Dukes vs. #5 Wisconsin Badgers

Team Spread Moneyline Total
James Madison +4.5 (-110) +165 Over 145.5 (-110)
Wisconsin -4.5 (-110) -200 Under 145.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Use Promo Code WSNMGM for up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets

Wisconsin had one of the best Champ Weeks of any team, landing them in the Big Dance. However, this Badgers team lost eight of their final 11 games. This has been a theme for Wisconsin, which has looked like both a Final Four team and an NIT team throughout the season. That inconsistency signals Wisconsin’s recent hot streak is likely over, making this a favorable matchup for James Madison.

 The Dukes' biggest weapon is their scoring ability. They averaged 84.4 points per game this season, the tenth-best mark in the country. However, two of their three losses came to an Appalachian State team that led the Sun Belt in defense. That shows the Dukes can be slowed down and contained against a great defense, but Wisconsin does not have that. The Badgers finished sixth in the Big Ten, allowing 69.9 points per game this season.

We see the difference in this game being decided at the 3-point arc. Jame Madison led the Sun Belt by making 36.5% of their attempts this season. Conversely, Wisconsin was the worst team in the Big Ten at defending the three, allowing opponents to make 37.1% of their attempts. That means the Dukes will have plenty of opportunity to get hot outside, forcing the Badgers to shoot from outside and abandon their size advantage. Wisconsin made just 34.8% of their threes this season.

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#11 New Mexico Lobos vs. #6 Clemson Tigers

Team Spread Moneyline Total
New Mexico -2.5 (-110) -145 Over 149.5 (-110)
Clemson +2.5 (-110) +122 Under 149.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Get up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets when you sign up using promo code WSN1000.

This is one of our favorite bets of the first round. While Clemson had an impressive season in the ACC, they have lost four of their previous five games. All three losses were to teams that did not make the NCAA Tournament: Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Boston College. Their ACC Tournament loss to Boston College was a 76-55 blowout, a cause for concern heading into this matchup.

New Mexico’s offense has been one of the best in the country all season, ranking twenty-second in scoring (81.5 PPG). Their defense has been a problem, but they did not allow more than 66 points in their four Mountain West Tournament games. If they can continue to play at that level defensively, the Lobos could find themselves in the Final Four.

Clemson is also strong on offense, but its defense will not be able to contain New Mexico. It has allowed the eighth most points in the ACC (71.3 PPG) this season and has given up more than 75 in three of its previous four games.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions, so we are rolling with a streaking Lobos team this week.

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

369 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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