Most Likely Upsets March Madness 2026 - Final Four

The Final Four is here at last, and it brings us two incredible matchups.

While both are expected to be close, we see the Arizona Wildcats as the better upset pick. The line against Michigan is close for good reason, but we believe this team is still incredibly underrated. The Wolverines have overshadowed their southern rival over the last few weeks, but that will change on Saturday.

We’ll share our reasoning behind our Final Four upset pick and the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbooks. If you are looking to sign up with Caesars to bet on March Madness, be sure to use promo code WSNDYW to claim your welcome offer: Bet $1, Double Your Winning 10x.

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#1 Michigan Wolverines vs. #1 Arizona Wildcats

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbooks. 

Make no mistake about it, this is going to be one of the most anticipated games of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Both teams can score at an elite level and play solid defense, while ranking among the best in the nation in rebounding. It’s a perfect matchup between two teams that didn’t meet in the regular season, leading to the small spread from bookmakers.

The Michigan Wolverines became the betting favorite to win March Madness after dominating the opening weekend. That didn’t change after dispatching #4 Alabama and #6 Tennessee in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The team has a whopping +90-point differential heading into the Final Four, but that will change on Saturday. 

Arizona is the only team that has arguably been even better than Michigan. However, we are more impressed with their path to the Final Four. It includes dominating wins against #4 Arkansas and a great #2 Purdue team. Both of those squads had high hopes for the Final Four, but looked like they weren’t even in the same league as the Wildcats. 

These two teams have an almost identical strength-of-schedule rating, but we’re more impressed by the wins the Wildcats posted. Those include fellow Final Four team UConn, as well as some top tournament teams, like Florida and Iowa State (twice). Arizona’s two losses were to ranked teams (Kansas and Texas Tech) by a combined seven points, with one ending in overtime. 

With these teams so evenly matched, we place far greater emphasis on experience, leading us to side with Arizona. As good as Michigan is, the pressure of the moment will be too much against this great team, leading to a late loss.

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