The line between sports betting and prediction markets was further blurred this week.
Kalshi, the industry-leading sports prediction platform, announced it has certified more prop bet markets for the NFL season. With no approval from the CFTC or states required, the markets can go live as soon as the operator is ready.
The move comes about one month after Kalshi launched spread, total, and game prop markets while also allowing bettors to create parlays.
The new Kalshi prop bet markets will include:
Passing attempts, completions, interceptions, touchdowns, and yards
Rushing attempts, touchdowns, yards
Receiving receptions, touchdowns, yards
Combined yards from scrimmage, touchdowns
Defensive interceptions, passes defended, sacks, tackles
Special Teams extra points, field goals, punts, punt yards, return touchdowns
While the operator's pricing is still lagging behind most sportsbooks, these new markets will allow them to offer an almost identical experience. By adding the ability to use your Robinhood account and cryptocurrency, it's clear why Kalshi has seen a surge in popularity this NFL season.
Since US law currently considers sports prediction markets to be commodity trading, their new markets will be able to go live in all 50 states.
Kalshi's decision to offer player prop bets is opening the door for spot-fixing. These betting scandals involve players altering their stats to ensure a wager wins. The NCAA is currently dealing with one of these scandals, which included three Fresno State players who wagered on their own games. Those players received a lifetime ban and are no longer enrolled with the school.
The sports betting industry has significantly improved at detecting scandals like these, but sports prediction platforms have not. That didn’t stop Kalshi from launching player prop betting as states push to ban the controversial bet type. We know athletes are looking for ways to win money on their performance, and they will look to do just that with these new markets.
The risk Kalshi is taking is significant, but their confidence may not be unfounded. The operator, along with the CFTC, monitors trading very closely and can detect suspicious movement. This should enable them to detect betting scandals and take swift action.
Those looking to spot-fix using Kalshi will likely be facing far more severe consequences. The federal government will investigate and prosecute these cases, as opposed to state regulators. Since the industry is considered to be commodity trading, violators could be facing massive fines along with prison terms.
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