Sony Open in Hawaii Predictions, Betting Odds & Top Picks

• The PGA Tour moves from Maui to Honolulu for the second leg of the Hawaiian Swing
• Waialae Country Club, a short par 70, plays host once more
• Kevin Na defends the trophy he won by shooting 21-under last year

Sony Open in Hawaii Odds

The odds for this tournament are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to Caesars and place a bet.

Sony Open in Hawaii Picks

Hideki Matsuyama won again in late 2021 and had strong SG: Approach numbers when tied 13th last week. Back him for the win at +1800 with Caesars Sportsbook

Course horse Brendan Steele has a strong head-to-head record against Keegan Bradley. Back him to win their 72-hole matchbet at -120 with Caesars Sportsbook

Webb Simpson has three straight top fours at Waialae, two of those coming when it was his first start of the year. Back him to place top 5 at +300 with Caesars Sportsbook

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Sony Open in Hawaii Predictions

After record-breaking scoring on the Plantation Course, the PGA Tour moves from Maui to Honolulu to complete its calendar-opening Hawaiian Swing.

With little wind and a soft course last week, Cameron Smith (-34), Jon Rahm (-33), and Matt Jones (-32) all broke the Tour’s previous 72-hole scoring record of 31-under.

This week’s course, Waialae Country Club, presents a vastly different optic but once again the birdie count should be high, if not quite as extreme.

As opposed to last week’s par 73 which featured severe undulations, massive fairways, and vast greens, Waialae is a short par 70. The fairways are on the tight side, the Bermuda putting surfaces small and the lie of the land flat.

And, of course, while the Sentry Tournament of Champions was a winners-only event contested by just 38 players, this is the first full-field event (144 golfers) of the calendar year.

Looking at its history, Waialae has hosted this event since 1965.

Americans have won 11 of the last 13 editions, the exceptions being Fabian Gomez in 2016 and last week’s winner, Cam Smith, in 2020.

Notably, 16 of the last 23 winners here had played in the previous week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions so warming up on an albeit very different course is clearly of benefit.

Kevin Na lifted the silverware with 21-under 12 months ago, becoming the fifth champion in the last seven years to card 20-under or better. He’s back to defend.

If the wind blows, the test becomes much harder and Smith triumphed with 11-under two years ago. But the weather forecast doesn’t look testing this week so expect low scoring once more on the short 7,044-yard par 70.

Make it Matsuyama

With the majority of winners here usually having played at the Sentry, my outright pick comes from the bunch who contested last week’s tournament. At the prices, the one I like is Hideki Matsuyama.

The Japanese star is coming off a memorable year. He won The Masters at Augusta and added another win when the PGA Tour visited his home country for the ZOZO Championship.

That was in late October so there’s no surprise there was some rust in his play at The Plantation Course last week.

That said, he still shot some strong numbers in his tied 13th place finish.

Strokes Gained: Approach is an excellent pointer to success in this event and Matsuyama ranked fifth in that category at the Sentry so his irons were pretty dialed in.

This course initially caused him some difficulties but he’s changed that around in recent years.

Matsuyama shot all four rounds in the 60s when tied 27th in 2017, overcame a poor start to take tied 12th in 2020, and added tied 19th last year.

The only question mark is his putting although he registered positive Strokes Gained Putting stats in three of his four rounds last week.

This classy operator is better than twice the price of market leader Smith and that doesn’t seem right.

Steele Can Outscore Bradley

For this week’s 72-hole match bet I’m going to side with Brendan Steele to get the better of Keegan Bradley.

There’s an element of risk as we don’t fully know the state of either man’s game after the break.

But by all the known metrics, Steele appears to be coming out on top.

At this course, Steele was runner-up in 2020 and fourth last year, shooting a stunning 61 in round three.

They’re the only two times Steele and Bradley have contested this event together in the last 10 years and no surprises that the former came out on top both times.

Widening the lens and Steele finished runner-up on the PGA Tour as recently as October when posting second place behind Matsuyama in the ZOZO.

Wind back to The Memorial last June and Steele has outscored Bradley in six of the last eight events (one tie), including each of the last four.

The evidence is stacking up so let’s take the Californian at -120 with Caesars Sportsbook.

Simpson Can Crack the Top Five

The year 2021 wasn’t the best one on the course for Webb Simpson.

He failed to get a win and his world ranking dropped from 6th at the end of 2020 to 27th at the end of 2021. He’s now 29th.

But there were signs in the fall that things were turning. Simpson finished tied 14th in the CJ CUP and tied eighth in the RSM Classic.

This looks the ideal venue for him to hit the ground running in 2022 as his last three finishes here are fourth, third, fourth.

In two of those three, Simpson hadn’t played the Sentry the week before so it appears he doesn’t require that tune-up.

Simpson has a brilliant record on grainy greens (Bermuda/Paspalum), banking 15 top fives in his last 39 events played on them. That, of course, includes a 3-for-3 top five record here since 2019.

Let’s back him to land another top 5 at +300 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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