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Sony Open Odds: Waialae Debut for Matt Fitzpatrick

Written by: Matt Cooper
Updated January 10, 2024
8 min read
  • Swedish phenom Ludvig Aberg leads the betting

  • International golfers have won three of the last four renewals

  • Last week’s winner Chris Kirk has a superb tournament record

The Sony Open Odds

Odds from BetMGM. Bet $5, Get $158 in Bonus Bets with Code WSNMGM.

Player Odds 
Ludvig Aberg +1400
Matt Fitzpatrick +1600
Tyrrell Hatton +1600
Brian Harman +2200
Russell Henley +2500
Eric Cole  +3000
Chris Kirk  +3300
Corey Conners +3300
Sahith Theegala +3300
J.T. Poston +3500

The Sony Open Picks and Predictions

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Sony Open 2024 Predictions

Sony Open Intro

There are golf tournaments that offer minimal hints to bettors and there are also other events which have more clues than an Agatha Christie novel.

Having too many clues might create another problem entirely, of course, but it’s preferable to having none and the Sony Open at Waialae is definitely a clue-laden layout.

Winners here tend to have solid course experience and they are also likely to have secured wins at other courses which present a similar test.

Think narrow, tree-lined fairways. 

Think blustery, seaside locations. 

Think small, Bermuda-grass greens.

Think El Camaleon and Harbour Town and, to a lesser degree, Southwind, PGA National, and Colonial.

Last week’s winner Chris Kirk is chasing back-to-back triumphs and will fancy his chances because he is a two-time runner-up at Waialae.

Who will take the honors this week? Let’s find out.

Waialae CC Winners

YearChampion and Winning Score
2023Si Woo Kim (Korea) -18
2022Hideki Matsuyama (Japan) -23 (Playoff)
2021Kevin Na (U.S.A.) -21
2020Cameron Smith (Australia) -11 (Playoff)
2019Matt Kuchar (U.S.A.) -22
2018Patton Kizzire (U.S.A.) -17 (Playoff)
2017Justin Thomas (U.S.A.) -27
2016Fabian Gomez (Argentina) -20
2015Jimmy Walker (U.S.A.) -23
2014Jimmy Walker (U.S.A.) -17

Waialae Course Notes

  • The course is a par 70 that plays to 7,044 yards

  • It was designed by Seth Raynor and renovated by Tom Doak

  • In contrast to last week, it is a very flat layout

  • It’s a tree-lined course with a series of tight doglegs

  • It’s a test that rewards exceptional wedge play

  • The greens are small, and flat and feature Bermuda grass

Favorites to Win the Sony Open

Ludvig Aberg (+1400) at BetMGM

The Swede closed 2023 with eight consecutive top-15 finishes, a run that included two wins, a playoff defeat, and a failure to convert a 54-lead. An astonishing run for a man who was still playing college golf in early June. Oh, and he also starred in Europe’s Ryder Cup triumph. He’s gun from the tee and his victories in Crans and at Sea Island suggest he could thrive this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600) at BetMGM

A Waialae debut for the Englishman but there is every reason to think he will enjoy the test. He is, after all, a man who has won among the wind-blown trees of Valderrama, on the small greens at Harbour Town, and by the seaside in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. He carded a second-round 64 when finishing 14th last week at Plantation.

Tyrrell Hatton (+1600) at BetMGM

Another Englishman. Another making his debut this week. And guess what? Another who finished 14th last week, in his case posting a Friday 62. He’s even, like Fitzpatrick, a winner of the Dunhill Links and has finished third at Harbour Town (when the 54-hole leader). His win at Bay Hill in 2020 also reads relatively well for this week. 

Head over to BetMGM to bet on our picks - Bet $5, Get $158 in Bonus Bets with Code WSNMGM.

Another English Winner?

Hark back to all those Sony Open clues and the name of Harris English crops up.

Course form? He’s finished third, fourth, and ninth at Waialae.

Quality golf at similar venues? He’s been a winner at El Camaleon and Southwind.

He’s also won in Hawaii (at Plantation) and has been third at Colonial (also tree-lined with doglegs like this week).

It’s also true that eight of the last 10 winners in the second week of the Tour’s fortnight in Hawaii had played in the first week.

English was ninth last week and just three shot off the lead heading into the final round.

He’s a quality performer who has looked ready to return to the winner’s circle over the last 12 months and this is a great opportunity for him.

BetMGM Sportsbook are offering +4000 for the win and +700 for a top five.

Henley in His Sweet Spot

Russell Henley made it pretty clear on his Waialae debut that he liked the place.

How so? Well, he carded three rounds of 63 to win his first PGA Tour title and he has since made it five top 20 finishes there in 11 starts.

His form is even better with 13 of his last 17 starts reaping top 20s.

Moreover, since March last year, every examination similar to Waialae has seen him finish top 20: at Harbour Town, Colonial, Sedgefield, Southwind, and Sea Island.

This is the sort of golf he enjoys and he can be backed to land yet another top 20 with the FanDuel Sportsbook offering +120.

Kuchar Cruncher

In recent years Matt Kuchar has been an absolute monster every time he tees it up at Waialae Country Club.

The turnaround has been remarkable: he had one top 60 in his first eight Sony Open starts and, in contrast, eight top-15 finishes in his last 10 appearances.

That helps explain why he leads Keegan Bradley 7-1 in Waialae head-to-head.

Moreover, although the pair are 5-5 in the head-to-head since the start of last year, whenever the conditions are Waialae-like Kuchar dominates.

He leads Kuchar 3-0 at Harbour Town, 2-1 at El Camaleon and that run can continue this week. 

Take the -110 in the match-up at DraftKings Sportsbook.

How to Watch the Sony Open

  • Tournament: Sony Open

  • Location: Waialae CC, Honolulu, Hawaii

  • Date: Thursday, January 11 - Sunday, January 14

  • How to Watch: Thursday & Friday 7 - 10:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday & Sunday TBD (NFL determined) (Golf Channel). And all four days on Sky Sports.

21+ | T&Cs apply. *Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.
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Matt Cooper

68 Articles

Matt Cooper has been a sports journalist since 2009 with his work appearing at ESPN, Sky Sports, NBC, Sporting Life and the Planet Sport Network among many others, in addition to guest appearances on the BBC and CNN. Although a specialist in golf, who has traveled the world to cover the sport, Matt has also covered rugby, cricket, football and the Olympics. Email: [email protected]

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