The TOUR Championship Predictions, Picks, Odds

TOUR Championship Predictions

  • The final event of the 2020/21 PGA Tour season
  • Last week’s winner Patrick Cantlay leads the staggered scoring
  • East Lake Golf Club hosts for the 21st time

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The TOUR Championship Odds

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Player Odds
Patrick Cantlay +333
Jon Rahm +350
Bryson DeChambeau +550
Tony Finau +700
Justin Thomas +1600
Cameron Smith +2000
Dustin Johnson +2000
Rory McIlroy +2500
Jordan Spieth +2800
Abraham Ancer +3300

The TOUR Championship Picks and Predictions

Jordan Spieth is the outright pick at +2500 with Caesar’s Sportsbook

Viktor Hovland in the outright without starting strokes at +2800 with bet365

How to Watch The TOUR Championship

TOUR Championship Information
Tournament The TOUR Championship
Location East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia
Time Thursday, September 2 – Sunday, September 5
How to watch Thursday 1pm & 7pm ET (Golf Channel), Friday 1pm & 8pm ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 1pm & 10pm ET (Golf Channel), Sunday 1pm & 9pm ET (Golf Channel). And all four days on Sky Sports.

The TOUR Championship Profile

We’ve had two years of the PGA Tour’s new method of scoring the final tournament of the season.

In theory, the method has some merit: players are rewarded for their seasonal, and also their Playoff performance, with a staggered starting score. Here is this week’s top 10:

10-under Patrick Cantlay

8-under Tony Finau

7-under Bryson DeChambeau

6-under Jon Rahm

5-under Cameron Smith

4-under Justin Thomas, Harris English, Abraham Ancer, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns

3-under Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson

2-under Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Brooks Koepka

It’s immediately clear, therefore, that the leading five players hold quite an advantage and that frustrates many watchers – there’s a sense that, rather than watching a new tournament, we’re actually jumping into the middle of one we’ve not seen the start of.

From a punting point of view, it’s as if we’re betting in-play and that’s probably the best way of viewing it.

There is, however, an added curiosity this week which is that the leading five players in the scoring have really rather poor records at East Lake. The course is quite distinct. It has narrow fairways which, when found, provide a great lie so players can attack the pin, but the rough is full of tangly Bermuda grass – and it’s very difficult to control balls hit from it.

An added factor is that the greens are very slopey and fast – it’s essential that players leave their ball below the hole, enhancing the need to hit those fairways from the tee. And the top five at the start of this week have struggled with that test. Really struggled.

Patrick Cantlay has a best of T20th in three starts (remember, the field is only 30), Tony Finau has no top five in four starts, Bryson DeChambeau has no top 10 in three starts, and Cameron Smith, like Cantlay, has a best of T20th in two starts.

The exception is Jon Rahm who was fourth last year, but that was only because of the starting strokes. Had it been a case of the low score counting, he too would be without a top-five in four starts.

Rahm is definitely the man to beat this week, but the records of that top five looks vulnerable.

Spieth Can Mount a Charge

Course form has tended to matter at East Lake. Indeed, six of the last 10 winners had already finished in the top three at the course before they triumphed.

Double winners are also quite common and Jordan Spieth can join their number.

He was the champion in 2015, runner-up on debut in 2013 and he was also tied seventh in 2017.

This will be the first time he has encountered the starting stroke system, but he’s not in a bad spot – six off the lead and only two back of Rahm.

I also like that winners here have often had a good year in the major championship without actually winning one. It’s almost as if they arrive at this end-of-season finale and are reminded that they haven’t quite got from the year what they had hoped to.

Spieth was second in the Open at Royal St George’s and he has also enjoyed a fine revival this calendar year. It’s entirely possible he will feel he needs something substantial to book end the campaign and he’s the pick of the chasers.

Take him each way in the outright market at +2500 with Caesar’s Sportsbook, a good price, and paying out five places.

Bet on Jordan Spieth, Here!

Hovland Can End 2021 On A High

The importance of quality driving, as discussed above, is emphasised by what the players say.

Justin Rose has said of the test: “It’s not long, but it’s tough to hit the fairways.”

Gary Woodland added: “You’ve got to drive it in the fairway, the rough is brutal.”

Justin Thomas completes the three-point plan with: “If you drive it well, you have a lot of wedges.”

In other words, hit the fairways and you can score well. Miss fairways, you’re in trouble. In the last two weeks of the PlayOffs, Viktor Hovland has both times ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and last week he was also third for Strokes Gained Off the Tee.

The latter category is always a strength of his and, indeed, he ranked 12th for it in his course debut 12 months ago. He also ranked second for Approaches so he took advantage when he found that short grass.

He was sounding very enthused after his top 20 finish last week, saying:

I felt like I made a lot of progress. I hit a lot of really nice iron shots to pins on the right side, where I had to hit cuts, and then I hit a couple of good shots into left pins, so it was good all round.

The Norwegian has also putted well on grainy greens in the past so he looks well capable of going low. He’s starting the week off the pace, at 3-under, but that might be an advantage of sorts, allowing him to freewheel.

Take him in bet365’s 72-hole Stroke Play Winner (Starting Strokes Do Not Count) market at +2800 each way.

Bet on Viktor Hovland, Here!

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Matt Cooper

Expert on Golf

Matt Cooper has been a sports journalist since 2009 with his work appearing at ESPN, Sky Sports, NBC, Sporting Life and the Planet Sport Network among many others, in addition to guest appearances on the BBC and CNN. Although a specialist in golf, who has traveled the world to cover the sport, Matt has also covered rugby, cricket, football and the Olympics. Email: [email protected]