Italy vs Spain Euro 2020 Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips

  • Italy marched through to the semi-finals with a victory over Belgium
  • Spain squeezed past Switzerland last time out via a penalty shoot-out
  • The Italians look to have a better balance and that gives them the edge here

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Italy vs Spain Odds

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To Win the Match Odds
Italy +155
Tie +215
Spain +200

Italy vs Spain Pick

Our Pick

Back Italy to beat Spain. The Azzurri are more effective in both boxes than Luis Enrique’s side, and their intensity and energy could make the difference. Spain’s unhelpful penchant for sloppy defending could be their undoing in the first semi-final of the competition.

The best odds for this match

Odds provided by Unibet

How to Watch Italy vs Spain

Italy vs Spain Information
Teams Italy vs Spain
Location Wembley Stadium, London, England
Time Tuesday, 6 July 2021, 15.00 PM EDT
How to watch ESPN

Italy Pass Belgium Test and Have Momentum on Their Side

Italy are the only team left in the European Championship with a 100 percent winning record. They were made to work hard for their latest victory against Belgium on Friday, but goals from Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne proved enough to see off the challenge of Roberto Martinez’s men. Italy played on the front foot in the first half, as has become customary at this tournament. But they had to show another side to their game after the interval, and Roberto Mancini will be delighted that his players passed that test.

Belgium came on strong in the second half, and Italy had to dig deep to preserve their lead. Leonardo Bonucci and, in particular, Giorgio Chiellini were more than happy to defend their penalty area, as they have done with aplomb for many years. We are likely to see Italy have less possession against Spain than they have in other matches at this tournament, so Chiellini and Bonucci will once again have to stand strong in deeper areas.

Italy are one of the most cohesive sides at Euro 2020. They have demonstrated that ever since the opening night when they dispatched Turkey with a minimum of fuss. Their pressing is particularly impressive. At the international level, where managers have less time to work with their players on the training ground, it can be difficult to implement a successful pressing regime. The whole point of closing down in this way is that it must be collective, rather than individuals chasing after the ball like headless chickens.

Italy have mastered it, and that stands them in good stead for when they face a possession-focused side like Spain. However, the loss of Leonardo Spinazzola to injury is a huge blow for Mancini. The right-footed left-back has been one of the stars of the competition, and Emerson Palmieri will be under pressure to replicate Spinazzola’s thrust and drive down the flank.

Spain Have as Many Questions as Answers In Knockouts

Spain were unable to get the job done against Switzerland in 90 minutes, which means they have won only one of their five matches at this tournament in regulation time. In fairness to Luis Enrique’s side, they eventually beat Croatia 5-3 after extra time in the round of 16, and really should have seen off Switzerland before the penalty shoot-out. They did not, but Spain held their nerve to convert three of their spot-kicks to the Swiss’ one.

Even so, it was not a particularly convincing all-around display from Spain last time out. A 1-1 draw was a fair outcome after 90 minutes, and La Roja only began to create an abundance of clear-cut chances after Switzerland had been reduced to 10 men, with Remo Freuler harshly sent off. Yann Sommer, the Swiss goalkeeper, pulled off some heroics in the additional 30 minutes, but Spain’s performance before extra time was rather ordinary.

Not for the first time at this tournament, Spain were let down in both boxes. A defensive mix-up led to Switzerland’s equalizer, while at the other end Spain lacked sharpness and a clinical edge. Neither Alvaro Morata nor Gerard Moreno has looked particularly threatening, and that could ultimately prove to be Spain’s undoing.

Yet there is still reason to believe that Luis Enrique’s team are capable of going all the way. Despite their occasional woes inside the penalty area, including having missed more big chances than any other team, Spain are the competition’s top scorers with 12 goals. Sergio Busquets and Pedri have been excellent in midfield, and Jordi Alba has been an important outlet on the left-wing. If Spain can find their shooting boots, they have the quality to beat Italy.

Italy Have Been More Convincing Than Spain up to Now

Italy have been the more convincing team to date, though. There is a better balance to Mancini’s side, who are yet to fall behind at the competition. They attack with tempo and purpose, whereas Spain can sometimes move the ball too slowly in the final third. And it is also worth bearing in mind that almost half (five of 12) of Spain’s goals at Euro 2020 came against a poor Slovakia side in the group stage.

Including qualifiers, Italy have now won 15 European Championship games on the bounce. The fact they have not even fallen behind at this tournament means we are not sure how they would react to conceding the first goal. If Spain open the scoring on Tuesday, their ability to dominate possession would force Italy to solve a problem they have little recent experience of.

Overall, though, Italy’s energy, dynamism and intensity could prove too much for Spain, who do not look comfortable when their rhythm is disrupted. Switzerland had some joy when they upped the tempo on Friday, and Luis Enrique’s defense has been relatively easy to exploit when opposing teams get enough of the ball. Back Italy to reach the final of the Euros.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]