Thursday’s pitching matchups should be very competitive, which means there should be limited scoring.
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Let’s dive into our three-leg parlay, featuring the Cardinals, Diamondbacks vs Mets Under 7.5, and Rockies vs Giants Under 7.5 at +670.
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The Cardinals are a bad team on the road. They are currently 14-17, but 4-12 on the road. However, I like them in this spot.
Matthew Liberatore has been tremendous this season. He is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, allowing under one hit per inning. He has surrendered just one home run and two walks in 31 innings.
Andrew Abbott will pitch for Cincinnati, and he has been solid. He has posted a 3.6 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 15 innings, but look at his competition.
Abbott has faced the Pirates, Orioles, and Rockies. Baltimore is 20th, Pittsburgh is 25th, and Colorado is last in runs scored.
Abbott is due for some regression. The Reds' offense is much better than St. Louis's, but the Cardinals are middle of the road in runs scored and seventh in OBP.
They need some timely hits, but the value is there for them to take the finale.
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The New York Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball, and they have done it without much offense. Don't get fooled by their 19-run slaughter of Washington on Monday because they don't hit.
Juan Soto's early struggles have been an issue. He is walking, but when he does get chances to swing, he isn't converting.
The Mets are 14th in team OBP, and they would be 16th in runs scored, taking away the 19-run performance earlier this week.
These statistics don't align with their current offensive record, but their pitching has been excellent.
Kodai Senga is 3-1 with a 1.26 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
He has allowed one home run in 28.2 innings. Zac Gallen will pitch for Arizona, and he has struggled with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, but he has faced potent offenses.
The Mets' bats could be just what he needs to limit runs, and even if he doesn't, I still see this game staying under the line.
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The Colorado Rockies have the worst offense in baseball. Despite earning a win on Wednesday against the Braves, they only scored two runs.
We don’t expect Colorado to hit well in San Francisco, even against a struggling Justin Verlander. Verlander is 0-2 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.4 WHIP.
He has allowed 31 hits in 30.2 innings, but still has strong strikeout ability. The Rockies could be precisely what he needs to get back on track.
The Giants will likely hit, but there should be a solid buffer if Colorado produces their usual night.
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