Sometimes it makes sense to stay away from the usual suspects with prop bets, but other times it’s best to stick to familiar faces. The latter is true on Friday because we are relying on the Yankees and Dodgers, not to mention the red-hot Alex Bregman, to deliver for us. Of course, we’re targeting mostly bets with plus-odds, so there is a lot of good value with our picks.
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We lost this exact prop bet with Judge not too long ago, but we’re getting back on the horse. During a three-game series in Baltimore this week, Judge went 7 for 11. The guy has multiple hits in four of his last five games and six of his last eight games. With these odds, how do you not take a chance on Judge having another multiple-hit game? Going 2 for 6 in his career against Tampa starter Ryan Pepiot doesn’t hurt either.
But at this point, Judge is batting .427, so it doesn’t matter who’s pitching; he’s going to hit.
Overall, the Yankees have been a little shaky lately, going 5-6 in their last 11 games. But Fried has been their good-luck charm all season. The Yankees are 6-0 in games he’s started, with Fried being the winning pitcher in his last five starts. It’s time to jump on the bandwagon, especially since Fried dominated the Tampa lineup for 7.2 scoreless innings less than two weeks ago.
The southpaw has thrown at least six innings without giving up an earned run in three of his last four starts. He’s also going deep into games, helping protect New York’s shaky bullpen. Those are all good reasons to take plus-odds on Fried being the winning pitcher on Friday.
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He’s not quite reached Judge-levels of hot, but Bregman does have an 11-game hitting streak. In those 11 games, he’s collected multiple bases seven times thanks to a high volume of doubles and home runs this season. There’s every chance that Bregman keeps it going on Friday against the Twins. While Joe Ryan poses a problem for most of Boston’s lineup, Bregman is 6 for 13 (.462) with four extra-base hits in his career against Ryan.
That’s enough of a track record to think that Bregman will have another big game.
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It’s safe to say the Dodgers have broken out of their mini-slump. They’ve won five straight games, averaging 10.2 runs per game during that streak. Players like Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Shohei Ohtani are all among the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Rather than target several members of the Dodgers, it’s easier just to fade the unfortunate pitcher who has to face them on Friday.
While Holmes has a respectable 4.50 ERA, he’s allowed more than 2.5 earned runs in three of his last five starts. That includes four runs in four innings of work against the Dodgers in late March. It’s hard to believe Friday’s game will be any different with the way the Los Angeles lineup has mashed lately.
On the other side, Atlanta’s hitters will have their hands full with Yamamoto on Friday night. The Los Angeles ace is the current MLB leader in ERA at 1.06. He’s held opposing teams to one earned run or less in five of his six starts. Giving up two runs in five innings against the Tigers in late March is Yamamoto’s worst start of the season.
In April, he made four starts, allowing just four runs, only one of which was earned, on 15 hits across 24 innings. The Braves could only muster one run on three hits at Coors Field on Wednesday, and then had an off day on Thursday. That’s going to make it tough for them to hit Yamamoto on Friday, so we’ll take the plus-odds on this prop.
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