After failing to cash the NRFI in the contest between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night, we try our luck again as another pair of productive arms are set to take the mound. At the same time as their opening pitch, we also focus on the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals as Mitch Keller gets the benefit of facing off against an offense who struggles with making contact.
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After severely underwhelming in 2024 due to injuries, Clayton Kershaw has rounded back into dominant form as the former NL Cy Young winner is averaging an ERA of 3.43 and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched. Even though his FIP of 4.34 indicates negative regression is looming large, the Dodgers back end helps mask his struggles as their defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency.
Against Milwaukee, Kershaw will have a great opportunity to push aside his regression as he faces off against an offense who struggles with making contact at a consistent rate. As of writing, the Brewers rank 17th overall in Team Total Hits. Their inconsistent play hurts their chances of getting into scoring position which will help Kershaw get off to a hot start and hold them scoreless in the first inning.
On the other side of the field, Jacob Misiorowski draws a much tougher assignment as the NL Rookie of the Year award contender faces off against an offense who leads the league in most key offensive metrics. Fortunately for Misiorowski, the star prospect has shown he can neutralize any lineup with his elite individual production as the Brewers pitcher is averaging an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 0.915.
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After contending for the AL Cy Young award last year, Seth Lugo has managed to carry over his momentum into this season as the Kansas City Royals pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 1.095. His success can be attributed to his low Contact Rate as Lugo is also averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and just 4.62 Hits per game.
In a favorable matchup against Pittsburgh, Lugo will have a great opportunity to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against an offense who ranks near dead last in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Especially with his back end excelling in coverage as the Royals defense ranks top-10 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.
Like Lugo, the Pirates Mitch Keller will also have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as he is set to battle it out against a Royals offense who ranks in the bottom half of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics. Expect the Royals struggles with getting into scoring position to continue to persist as Keller enters the contest averaging an ERA of 3.64, a WHIP of 1.194, and a FIP of 3.24.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Athletics - Didier Fuentes vs. Jeffrey Springs - The Atlanta Braves and Athletics are in a favorable position to open up the scoring in the first inning as they face off against a pair of pitchers who average a FIP higher than 4.00 and less than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.
Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox - Kyle Freeland vs. Brayan Bello - Expect the Boston Red Sox top of their order to get into scoring position from the opening pitch as they get the benefit of swinging against Kyle Freeland who is averaging an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.578.
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