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Toyota Owners 400: Why are Penske Teammates’ Odds the Same?

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated March 30, 2023
12 min read
  • Martin Truex Jr. looks to break long drought at a track he mastered recently.
  • Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano? Why are Penske teammates’ odds the same?
  • Kyle Busch is an undervalued asset in the spring event at Richmond Raceway.

Toyota Owners 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

WinnerOdds

William Byron

+450
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Kevin Harvick

+550
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Kyle Larson

+650
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Christopher Bell

+750
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Denny Hamlin

+900
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Martin Truex Jr.

+1000
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Kyle Busch

+1200
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Ryan Blaney

+1600
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Joey Logano

+1600
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Tyler Reddick

+1800
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Ross Chastain

+1800
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Our Picks for the Toyota Owners 400

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Toyota Owners 400

Toyota Owners 400 Predictions

Can Martin Truex Jr. Break Drought at a Track He’s Learned to Love?

For the vast majority of his NASCAR Cup Series career, veteran driver Martin Truex Jr. was batting zero at the short tracks on the schedule.

Then came the breakthrough 2019 season, when Truex swept the two events at .75-mile Richmond and also collected the first of his three victories at .526-mile Martinsville.

In 2020, Truex picked up another win at Martinsville, and in 2021 he finished second in the series standings, with four victories that included triumphs at Martinsville and one-mile Phoenix.

Then the well ran dry. Truex didn’t win in 2022, and with last Sunday’s 17th-place run at Circuit of the Americas, his winless streak has reached 50 races.

Even though the last of Truex’s 31 victories came at Richmond in 2021, we don’t think he’s a good value in Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 at +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

We’re more inclined to favor Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin, priced at +900 (DraftKings) at his home track.

Though we’re not backing Hamlin to win—even though he’s a four-time victor at the track—we think he’ll beat another JGR teammate, Christopher Bell, head-to-head at +120 (DraftKings), despite Bell’s superior start to the season.

Despite the Odds, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano Are Not the Same

Both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney drive for Team Penske, but in terms of recent performance, that’s where the similarity ends.

Logano is the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion, having won four races last year, including the Championship 4 season finale in Phoenix. The driver of the No. 22 Ford already has a victory to his credit this year, having taken the checkered flag at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Blaney hasn’t won since the August Daytona race in 2021, amounting to a current drought of 52 races. His typical modus operandi over the past two seasons has been to start strong and fade at the finish.

Consider also that Blaney has but three top 10s, with a best finish of 7th, in 13 starts at Richmond. Logano, on the other hand, boasts two wins, 12 top fives and 16 top 10s in 27 starts at the .75-mile track.

So why is DraftKings offering Blaney and Logano at +1600 each? We have no clue why there’s no spread between the drivers. But if you’re a Ford aficionado, Logano’s the play.

And we like Ross Chastain to beat Blaney head-to-head at +110 (DraftKings).

Kyle Busch Is an Undervalued Asset in the Spring Race at Richmond

We’re picking Kyle Busch to win Sunday’s race, and we’re saying thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook for the generous +1200 odds on Rowdy.

Busch is the leading active winner at Richmond Raceway with six victories, five of which have come in the spring race at the historic short track.

He comes to Richmond riding a streak of 10 straight top 10s at the track. Overall, in 34 career starts there, Busch has 18 top fives and 27 top 10s with 1,529 laps led and 13,628 of a possible 13,629 laps completed.

In other words, Busch almost assuredly will be on the lead lap competing for the win at the finish.

In his first year with Richard Childress Racing, Busch already has a victory at Auto Club Speedway and is coming off last Sunday’s runner-up result at Circuit of the Americas.

Small wonder he’s our choice to win.

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How to Watch the Toyota Owners 400

  • What: Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race
  • Where: Richmond Raceway
  • When: Sunday, Apr. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: FS1

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AUTHOR

Reid Spencer

211 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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