Toyota Owners 400 Predictions: It’s Kyle Larson vs. the Toyotas on Sunday

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated March 29, 2024
4 min read
  • Defending Richmond winner Kyle Larson already has a victory this season.

  • It’s just a matter of time before Ty Gibbs gets a breakthrough triumph.

  • Virginia native Denny Hamlin is due for a victory at his home track.

Toyota Owners 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click odds in the table below and claim $150 in bonus bets when wagering at least $5 at DraftKings.

Denny Hamlin+500
Christopher Bell+500
Martin Truex Jr.+600
Kyle Larson+850
Ty Gibbs+900
William Byron+1100
Tyler Reddick+1200
Brad Keselowski+1200
Kyle Busch+1300
Chris Buescher+1300
Ryan Blaney+1500

Our Picks for the Toyota Owners 400

  • Denny Hamlin to win the race at +500 at DraftKings

  • Ty Gibbs to beat Martin Truex Jr. head-to-head at +100 at DraftKings

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Toyota Owners 400 Predictions

Toyota Owners 400 Predictions

Defending Winner Kyle Larson Says Richmond Is a Mixed Bag

In last spring’s NASCAR Cup Series event at Richmond Raceway, Kyle Larson led 93 laps and won by 1.535 seconds over Hendrick Motorsports teammate Josh Berry, who was subbing for injured Chase Elliott.

Larson, however, hasn’t been consistent at the 0.750-mile short track. He has three poles and two victories in 18 starts there, but the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has scored only two other top-fives to go with his wins.

“It seems like Richmond has been hit-or-miss for us,” said Larson, who picked up his first victory of the 2024 season at Las Vegas. “We’ve done really well of short tracks recently, and we won a race at Richmond last year.

“But we didn’t have a good race there in the summer, so we’re hoping to improve on that so we can challenge for another win there.”

Though he’s defending his crown in this race, we’re not confident enough in Larson’s performance to back him at +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ty Gibbs Is on the Cusp of a Breakthrough NASCAR Cup Series Win

If there’s one overwhelming consensus in the NASCAR Cup Series garage, it’s that Ty Gibbs is headed for his first victory in the series sooner rather than later.

Gibbs posted 11 victories in his first 50 NASCAR Xfinity Series races before making the jump to NASCAR’s premier series. One of those wins came at Richmond.

In his sophomore season, Gibbs has scored top-10 results in his last five races, including a pair of thirds at Phoenix and Circuit of the Americas.

“We’ve run well and hopefully we can have another good race this week in Richmond,” Gibbs said. “It’s been great. I work really well with my team.”

No doubt. Though we’re on the Gibbs bandwagon, and we favor Toyotas at the short tracks, we don’t think the driver of the No. 54 Camry is your winner this week at +900 via DraftKings (though the price is attractive).

We do think Gibbs will beat teammate Martin Truex Jr. head-to-head at +100 at DraftKings.

Virginia Native Denny Hamlin Is Due for a Victory at His Home Track

Denny Hamlin won at Bristol earlier this season in a race where his veteran skills proved decisive.

Though we don’t think the tire conservation on the Richmond asphalt will be as big an issue as it was on the Bristol concrete, saving equipment will still be important, and no driver in the Cup Series is better than Hamlin at that discipline.

“It’s definitely a race where you have to manage the car over the long run because it tends to run long and have green-flag pit cycles,” said Hamlin, who has four Richmond wins, the last coming in 2022.

“That always brings in some strategy if you want to pit early or pit late and the risks that come with both of those scenarios. The crew chiefs will definitely have their work cut out for them to figure out the best strategy.

“Overall, it’s a fun race. I feel very confident about our chances this week, but we’ll have to execute and stay in position throughout the race and see what happens.”

We share Hamlin’s confidence and pick him to win on Sunday at +500 via DraftKings.

How to Watch the Toyota Owners 400

  • What: Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

  • Where: Richmond Raceway

  • When: Sunday, March 31, 7 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FOX

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Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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