Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions: Perfect Scenario for a Veteran to Triumph

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated June 7, 2024
4 min read
  • With waiver in hand, Kyle Larson will be fast at the Sonoma road course.

  • The 2022 Sonoma winner, Daniel Suarez is not a favorite of oddsmakers.

  • Practice may make perfect for repeat Sonoma winner Martin Truex Jr.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Betting Odds

Odds taken from Caesars Sportsbook. Get a $1,000 First Bet on Caesars when you sign up. Click on the links in the table below to head to the sportsbook and place your bets.

Martin Truex Jr.+500
Kyle Larson+675
Christopher Bell+750
William Byron+850
Ty Gibbs+900
Chase Elliott+900
Tyler Reddick+950
Chris Buescher+1000
AJ Allmendinger+1400
Michael McDowell+1500
Denny Hamlin+1800
Austin Cindric+2000

Our Picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

  • Martin Truex Jr. to win the race at +500 (at Caesars)

  • Michael McDowell to finish in the top three at +400 (at DraftKings)

Bet on Martin Truex Jr. to win at Caesars 

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions

With Playoff Eligibility Intact, Kyle Larson Will Bring Speed to Sonoma

Two weeks ago, Kyle Larson’s planned Indianapolis 500/Coca-Cola 600 double ended in disappointment.

A speeding penalty relegated Larson to an 18th-place finish at Indy, and because the race there started four hours late, Larson was unable to make to back to Charlotte in time to run a single lap in the rain-shortened Coke 600.

NASCAR rules require drivers to start every race on the schedule in order to be eligible for the NASCAR Cup championship, so Larson had to depend on a waiver, which NASCAR granted on Tuesday.

Despite spinning into Kyle Busch in last Sunday’s race at Gateway, Larson finished 10th, and he’s almost certain to bring speed in his No. 5 Chevrolet to the Sonoma Raceway road course.  

Larson has won the pole position there for four of his last six starts, and in 2021, he started from the top spot under metric qualifying (when no time trials were held) and won the race.

But Larson started 16th and finished eighth in his last Sonoma start, and we’re shying away from backing him for the win at +675 via Caesars Sportsbook.

Oddsmakers Don’t Like the Chances of 2022 Winner Daniel Suarez

With an impressive run in 2022, Mexican driver Daniel Suarez claimed his first NASCAR Cup Series victory at Sonoma Raceway.

Last year, the driver of the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet turned in another excellent performance on a road course, winning the pole position and finishing third on the Indianapolis Grand Prix Course.

But there’s a reason Suarez is listed at +2800 via Caesars. The Trackhouse Camaros of Suarez and teammate Ross Chastain simply haven’t been as competitive as they were the last two years.

That’s why we’re steering clear of Suarez, even to finish in the top three or top five.

Goodyear Tire Test Has Martin Truex Jr. Primed for Sonoma Raceway

Martin Truex Jr. is the leading active winner at Sonoma Raceway. His four victories are just one shy of NASCAR Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon’s five.

The driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has won three of the last five Sonoma races, including last year’s.

If those statistics aren’t enough, consider that Truex was tapped to participate in a Goodyear tire test on Sonoma’s repaved surface in March. The new asphalt has rendered the course almost three seconds faster than last year’s pace.

Familiarity with the track is a huge bonus for one of the most formidable competitors there. That and his past record are all we need to pick Truex to claim his first win of the season on Sunday at +500 via Caesars.

How to Watch the Toyota/Save Mart 350

  • What: Toyota/Save Mart 350 NASCAR Cup Series Race

  • Where: Sonoma Raceway

  • When: Sunday, June 9, 3:30 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FOX


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Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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