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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions: Can Kyle Larson Finish Where He’s Likely to Start in Sunday’s Race?

Written by: Reid Spencer
Published June 9, 2023
11 min read
  • Can Kyle Larson finish where he’s likely to start in Sunday’s race?
  • Two obvious contenders—Suarez and Allmendinger—are getting no respect.
  • Denny Hamlin at +4000 is so absurd he’s almost worth a sympathy bet.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.


Tyler Reddick



Kyle Larson



Chase Elliott



William Byron



Ross Chastain



Kyle Busch



Daniel Suarez



AJ Allmendinger



Austin Cindric



Chris Buescher



Kevin Harvick



Our Picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions

Can Kyle Larson Finish Where He’s Likely to Start on Sunday

It’s no secret that Kyle Larson has bodacious speed every time he comes to Sonoma Raceway.

In his last five trips to the track, Larson has started the NASCAR Cup Series race from the pole position. One of those poles was based on metrics. The other four were earned. 

Suffice it to say that Larson can run a blistering lap at the 1.99-mile road course. On only one occasion, however, did Larson convert the pole into a race win. That was in 2021.

We think Larson will be predictably fast in Saturday’s qualifying session for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. He’ll probably lead laps during the race, too.

But we think there are much better values on the board that argue against picking Larson as the race winner at +500 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Read on.

Daniel Suarez and AJ Allmendinger Are Getting No Respect

AJ Allmendinger is generally acknowledged to be the most talented road course racer in the NASCAR garage.

Both his NASCAR Cup Series victories and 11 of his 16 NASCAR Xfinity Series wins have come on road courses.

Daniel Suarez is the defending winner of the Toyota/Save Mart 350, and he triumphed in last year’s race by a 3.849-second margin over runner-up Chris Buescher.

Suarez comes to Sonoma on the strength of a seventh-place finish in last Sunday’s Cup race at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.

It’s easy to argue against Allmendinger. Despite his prowess on almost every other road course, the Dinger has been unable to solve Sonoma. His average finish there is 23.5.

Suarez is another matter. He brings momentum to the track where he picked up his only Cup Series victory. Both Allmendinger and Suarez are offered at +1600 via DraftKings. We’ll take Suarez at that price.

Denny Hamlin Is Grossly Undervalued; So Is Martin Truex Jr.

Other than pre-race favorite Tyler Reddick (+450 DraftKings), Toyota drivers are getting snubbed so thoroughly this week that one has to wonder what they did to annoy the oddsmakers.

Denny Hamlin, who has 49 Cup victories to his credit—third-most among active drivers—is offered at +4000 via DraftKings.

This is the same Denny Hamlin who’s a perennial Championship 4 contender, the same Denny Hamlin who finished second to Tony Stewart at Sonoma in 2016.

Then there’s Martin Truex Jr., Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate. He’s a three-time winner at Sonoma. OK, both Truex and Hamlin had lackluster races in wine country last year, but they’re in top-flight equipment fielded by a top-flight team.

If you’re inclined to take a chance on a couple of long-shots who are proven winners, look no further.

Or simply hedge against Chevrolet dominance by betting on any Toyota driver to win at +300 (DraftKings). That covers Reddick, the overall favorite, as well as the long shots.

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How to Watch the Toyota/Save Mart 350

  • What: Toyota/Save mart 350 NASCAR Cup Series race
  • Where: Sonoma Raceway
  • When: Sunday, June 11, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: FOX
Image for Reid Spencer


Reid Spencer

218 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

More info on Reid Spencer
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