NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Jalen Johnson, Michael Porter Jr. & More Picks for Wednesday, March 18

On the eve of March Madness, I’ve picked my favorite NBA player props from around the league for Wednesday.

LaMelo Ball dropped 30 points, 13 assists, and six rebounds to lead the Charlotte Hornets on a wild comeback against the Miami Heat, while Julius Randle put up 32 points and seven rebounds to lift the shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves over the visiting Phoenix Suns.

Tonight’s schedule includes a rematch of the NBA Finals a few years ago as the Boston Celtics take on the Golden State Warriors, before the Los Angeles Lakers and the Houston Rockets close out the evening with another crucial battle for seeding in the Western Conference.

Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Wednesday, March 18.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 18

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Draymond Green Over 1.5 Threes (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Betting on Draymond to go over for these odds in years past would be incomprehensible. However, he made 1.5 threes per game this season, and he’s shown much more of a willingness to pull up from deep, attempting a career-high 4.7 threes per game.

Green went under in seven of his last nine games, but he also shot 41.4 percent from range for the year. He attempted five threes in only 19 minutes in a Feb. 19 matchup with Boston, and the Celtics’ glacial pace of play actually sets up for him to find himself alone on the perimeter and with the ball in his hands, while Stephen Curry continues to remain out of the lineup.

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Michael Porter Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (+108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Porter Jr. is an enigma. He averaged 7.1 rebounds per game but only had two in his last outing, while also going for 13 in back-to-back games just before that. He went under this line in four of his last seven, but he averaged 13.3 boards in his three overs.

The Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t as terrible on the boards as they were a couple of years ago, but they’re down to 21st in rebounds allowed per game over the last few weeks. Porter Jr. grabbed nine rebounds when these teams met in OKC last month, and I believe that he can claw his way to another over.

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Jalen Johnson Over 8.5 Assists (+104) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Atlanta Hawks are riding an impressive 10-game winning streak, spurred by more excellent play from the 24-year-old Johnson. He is now averaging 8.1 assists per game for the season, dished out 13 dimes in his last outings, and went over this line in three straight contests.

Although Johnson came up one assist short of an over when he faced the Dallas Mavericks eight days ago, Dallas allowed more average assists than any team in the league over the last few weeks. They also tied for the fourth-most points allowed during that same stretch, meaning the Hawks shouldn’t have any serious trouble putting the ball in the cup.

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Jabari Smith Jr. Under 1.5 Threes (+148) at FanDuel Sportsbook

For all of the concerns about their defensive personnel, the Lakers held their opponents to the fewest made threes per game over their last 15 contests. Smith Jr. felt the effects of that personally when they matched up on Monday night, going 2-8 (25 percent) from beyond the arc.

While Smith Jr.’s recent performance still constituted an over, he went under in five of his last eight games. He was also allowed to take eight threes, two above his season average, due to the absence of Alperen Sengun, who is expected to be back on the floor for tonight’s showdown.

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Isaiah Collier Under 17.5 Points (-132) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nothing about what Collier has done recently screams “sustainable.” He might’ve scored 21 points in his last outing, but he needed 21 field goal attempts, his most in more than a month, to get there, and his minutes dwindled from 33.6 in February to 24.8 in March.

The 21-year-old has shown his playmaking chops, but he’s still only shooting 27.6 percent from three and 71.8 percent from the free-throw line. The Minnesota Timberwolves just need to keep him out of the paint and they should have a great chance of keeping him under this line, just like they did in two of three matchups this season.

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