Can Duke Win Their Sixth Title to Tie Their Arch Rivals?

Regarded as one of the most successful programs in the history of college basketball, Duke sits in fourth place for all-time NCAA Tournament championships with five titles sitting on their mantle. They have fielded plenty of star-powered rosters over the years with this season being one of them.

Sitting above them on the all-time ranking list is North Carolina, the Blue Devils arch nemesis and one of the most storied rivalries in all of sports. By winning it all this season, Duke would be able to tie the Tar Heels with six championships, putting them one step closer to UCLA who leads every program with 11.

A Favorable Matchup to Kick Things Off

Before Duke starts their run to the National Championship, they must first take care of business in the round of 64, facing off against Siena who will be overmatched on both ends of the court. Winners of the MAAC, Siena stamped their ticket to the NCAA Tournament by beating Merrimack 64-54 in the Conference Championship.

Unfortunately for Siena, their run in the NCAA Tournament will be short-lived as they are incapable of slowing down the Blue Devils' high-powered offense. Their defense does not create any sort of Disruptions, ranking outside the top-200 in Steal Percentage and in Block Percentage. With no Havoc to lean on, Duke will be able to consistently break away from their coverage and generate a high volume of shots near the rim.

On the other end, the Blue Devils' defense will have the Saints in flux, consistently contesting their shots at multiple levels of the court. Ranked number one in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Blue Devils have backed their success on defense by suffocating their opponents with their coverage, forcing them to either take an ill-advised shot in the mid range or bodying their bigs in the interior.

With no clear path for success for Siena, the Saints will find themselves quickly behind on the scoreboard with no hope of being able to dig out of their deficit. A tune-up game at best for the Blue Devils, giving themselves the chance to iron out any kinks before the quality of their opponents ramps up in the later rounds.

Can Duke Make a Run

After skating past Siena, Duke will continue on their path to the Final Four with a second-round matchup against the winner of TCU and Ohio State. Two competitive units in their own right, yet the Horned Frogs lack the production that is needed on offense to keep it uncomfortably close on the scoreboard, while the Buckeyes have been abysmal on defense.

More info can be found in our March Madness Final Four predictions and analysis.

In the Sweet Sixteen, the Blue Devils will most likely face off against either St. John’s or Kansas, two contenders who have been plagued by their lack of production on offense this season. While their defense is elite, their inability to score at a consistent rate brings in a high amount of variance into their contests, lowering their chances of generating an upset. Both are also prone to heading home early, potentially making the Blue Devils' path to the Final Four even easier.

In the Elite 8, a few contenders stand above the rest, including Michigan State and UConn who both have flirted with upper-tier status this season. Unfortunately for both teams, they also bring with them serious red flags, holding them back from being a well-rounded unit. While the Spartans' inability to score in half-court sets have been a thorn in their side, the Huskies troubles can be pointed towards their Turnover Percentage.

How to Bet Duke

When it comes to betting on Duke, there are a few different ways you can go about it. For starters, you can take their odds to win the NCAA Championship at +390 offered by the majority of March Madness betting sites, as they are arguably the most well-rounded team in the nation. Even with Caleb Foster out with an injury, their depth will help mask his loss of production, lowering the Blue Devils' chances of falling into a scoring lull.

If you want to focus on them winning the region instead, you can bet Duke at around -125.

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