Can Illinois Win Their First National Championship in the Tournament Era?

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, the National Championship has eluded Illinois since the tournament was first founded in 1939. While the Fighting Illini have flirted with contention when Brad Underwood was hired in 2017, they have consistently come up short, failing to make the Final Four during that span.

Fortunately for Illinois, they will have a great opportunity to make the Final Four for the first time since 2005, facing off against Iowa who will be outmatched on both sides of the court. Listed as a sizable betting favorite to win the contest per the current spread, a victory in the Elite 8 would move Illinois one step closer to the National Championship, putting them on the verge of making history.

Before we get into more details, be sure to check up on the latest NCAA Tournament odds and favorites.

All Eyes on Illinois

After beating Houston in dominant fashion, all eyes are on Illinois who are arguably the closest to dethroning the likes of Duke, Arizona, and Michigan. While their defense has still struggled to give them the production they need to be an elite well-rounded unit, their offense is capable of masking their inefficiencies, ranking second in Adjusted Offensive Rating.

Heading into the Elite 8, the Fighting Illini will be able to continue to thrive, taking advantage of an Iowa defense who ranks near the bottom of the board in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage and in Opposing Three Point Rate. With the Hawkeyes struggling to shift their coverage across the court, Illinois will be able to consistently break away from their assignments and generate higher-quality shot attempts from the perimeter.

Should Illinois be able to convert from deep, this will put Iowa’s defense in flux, forcing them to stretch out their bigs to the perimeter in a desperate attempt to smother their shots. When stretched out, the width of the Fighting Illini’s lanes to the interior will drastically widen, making it easier for their help side scorers to slash through to generate a heavier volume of shots near the rim.

On the other end of the court, Iowa lacks the production on offense that is needed to take advantage of Illinois’ weaknesses on defense, making them vulnerable to falling behind on the scoreboard with little to no hope of clawing out of their deficit. With clear advantages on both sides, expect Illinois to cruise to a victory and stamp their ticket to the Final Four.

Can the Fighting Illini Capitalize on Their Opportunity?

If Illinois can capitalize on their favorable matchup in the Elite 8, then they would just be two wins away from claiming their first National Championship in the NCAA Tournament era. Standing between them and the first title would be a daunting matchup in the Final Four, potentially matching up with either Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State, or UConn. All formidable contenders in their own right who are backed by excellent coaches. 

While Duke and St. John’s fit the mold as a national champion per historic Kenpom metrics (Adjusted Offensive Rating > 112.0, Adjusted Defensive Rating < 94.0), Michigan State and UConn are not too far, making any one of the four a tough matchup for Illinois. Especially if the Fighting Illini revert back to their old habits on defense, bringing in a higher amount of variance into their contests.

Should Illinois be able to take down whoever they play in the Final Four, then they are projected to play either Michigan or Arizona in the title game who are currently the top-2 teams in Net Rating. Their path to the National Championship may look daunting on paper, but the Fighting Illini’s offense is capable of dismantling any defense in their path, making them an intriguing pick to win it all.

How to Bet Illinois

If you do not have any exposure on Illinois, consider placing a wager on them to win the National Championship (+750 at FanDuel) with no intentions of hedging until the title game. Even with Duke expected to be a small favorite in their projected Final Four matchup, the injury to Caleb Foster hurts their versatility, making them easier to defend. If the Blue Devils lose before reaching Illinois, then the Fighting Illini’s path is more favorable, crashing their odds down in the process.

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