Can Dan Hurley Win His Third Championship in a Span of Four Years?

It was as stunning of a win as it can get for UConn, erasing a 19-point deficit with a last-second heave from the perimeter to put away Duke in the Elite 8. With UConn advancing to the Final Four, Dan Hurley is now just two wins away from capturing his third National Championship in a span of four years, cementing himself as one of the greatest coaches in the history of the sport.

Standing in UConn’s way is Illinois who has been dominant throughout the tournament by overwhelming defenses with their high-powered offense. Even with their own defense struggling to give them the production they need to be a well-rounded unit, the Fighting Illini have been able to mask it by setting a scoring pace too fast for their opponents to keep up with.

Before we dive into more details, be sure to check up on the latest NCAA Tournament odds and favorites.

Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Huskies

Even though UConn currently fits the mold as a contender capable of winning it all per historic KenPom metrics (Adjusted Offensive Rating > 112.0, Adjusted Defensive Rating < 94.0), they are severely flawed and have been fortunate to make it the Final Four. UConn has skated their way to the last weekend, needing a late surge in the first round against Furman and a collapse from Michigan State just to get to the Elite 8.

Unfortunately for the Huskies, negative regression looms large in their matchup against Illinois as they lack the production on offense that is needed to match their output. Especially with Turnovers continuing to plague them, ranking outside the top-150 in Havoc Allowed which makes it hard for them to go through their sets.

The Huskies' inability to stretch out the defense with their perimeter shooting will also allow the Fighting Illini to sag their guards to help contest their shots in the interior. With more bodies in the middle, the quality of Tarris Reed Jr’s shot attempts in the paint will harshly decline, forcing him to kick it out at a higher rate which will lead to a decline in their total number of scoring opportunities near the rim.

On the other end, holding opposing offenses into one-and-done possessions has been a constant thorn in the Huskies side, ranking near the bottom of the board in Def Rebound Rate. A major issue in their matchup against Illinois as they excel at using their size and length to prolong their possessions by hauling in Offensive Rebounds, resulting in high-quality shots near the rim.

A Rough Path to the Championship

If UConn can get past Illinois in the Final Four, then their potential matchup in the National Championship will be daunting, drawing the winner of Michigan and Arizona who both sit at the top of the board in Net Rating. The Huskies would find themselves listed as a sizable underdog in either matchup with the best March Madness betting sites having them listed at +5.5 as of writing.

In a matchup perspective, both potential opponents would have clear advantages on both sides of the court. Starting with the Wildcats, their aggression in the interior would give the Huskies fits as they lack the size that is needed to hold them off the glass. With Arizona generating high-quality shots at a consistent rate, the Huskies would need to be near flawless on offense just to keep pace.

In a potential meeting against Michigan, UConn would struggle to break away from their suffocating coverage, facing off against a defense who leads the league in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage. This would make them overly reliant on their perimeter shooting, potentially throwing them off their rhythm which increases their chances of falling into a prolonged scoring lull.

How to Bet UConn

While UConn’s run to the Final Four needs to be applauded, it’s hard to envision them being able to capitalize on their momentum with Michigan and Arizona looming on the other end.

If your book has hypothetical lines up for the National Championship, place a wager on Michigan and Arizona at no higher than -6 with projections having them at -9, securing a good number before potentially ballooning up. If UConn loses to Illinois, then your bet voids.

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