Zags on Alert: Can Gonzaga Finally Get Over the Hump?

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, Gonzaga has been unable to win the National Championship after years of dominance. In their only two title game appearances, the Zags fell just short, losing to North Carolina in 2017 and to Baylor in 2021. Since 2017, Gonzaga has been consistent as Mark Few’s squad is 306-44 while winning eight WCC Conference Tournament championships.

While the WCC titles sit neatly on the mantle, Gonzaga’s sights are set on a National Championship, establishing themselves as one of the best programs in the nation. In order to make a run this year, the Zags must first get past Texas in the second round, a Longhorns squad who is fresh off an impressive win against BYU.

Positive Regression Looms Over the Zags

Even though Gonzaga managed to secure a three seed, this is one of Few’s weakest contenders, lacking the perimeter shooting that is needed to be a well-rounded unit. Gonzaga wasn’t just bad from three this year, they were abysmal, ranking 195th in Three Point Completion Percentage and 340th in Three Point Rate.

Their inability to stretch out the coverage made it easier for their opposition to sag their guards without fear of getting buried, contesting their shots in the middle which lowered their chances of scoring. To make matters worse, Braden Huff suffered a potential season ending injury, losing their second leading scorer and one of their few players who could convert from deep.

Fortunately for the Zags, their offense will have a great opportunity to connect from three at a higher rate against Texas by exploiting a defense who severely underwhelms in coverage, a unit who ranks outside the top-100 in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage. Especially with the Longhorns incapable of disrupting their rhythm, ranking equally as poor in Havoc and in Turnover Percentage.

With the Zags pulling the Longhorns bigs out of the middle, the width of their lanes to the rim will widen, improving the quality of their shot attempts in the middle. The Longhorns inability to play physical without fouling will also lead to an uptick in Gonzaga’s total number of free throws, increasing their chances of scoring at a consistent rate instead of falling into a scoring lull.

A Bumpy Path to the National Championship

Assuming Gonzaga gets past Texas, their path to the National Championship is a rough one, kicking things off with a potential matchup against Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen. While the Boilermakers did underperform this season per their preseason odds to win the title, they are getting hot at just the right time, boasting a dominant win over Michigan in the Big Ten Conference Championship.

After a date with Purdue, the Zags would then most likely match up with Arizona in the Elite 8, one of the few teams in the field who fit the profile to win it all per historic Kenpom metrics. The Wildcats are as well rounded as it gets, ranking in the top-5 in Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. A daunting matchup for Gonzaga, especially with the Wildcats capable of face guarding their guards around the perimeter while anchoring their bigs in the paint.

Should the Zags be able to thwart the Wildcats, then they would be expected to face off against Michigan who spent a majority of the year listed as the number one team in the nation per Net Rating. With Huff out, the Zags would lack the versatility that is needed to open up gaps in the Wolverines coverage, forcing them to rely on low quality shots in the interior which would drastically lower their chances of being able to keep it close on the scoreboard.

How to Bet Gonzaga

With the Zags drawing an unfavorable path, reflected in their odds to win March Madness, it’s best to avoid their futures. Instead, bet the Zags on a per round basis, giving you the ability to assess their matchup. In their second-round game against Texas, Gonzaga will be able to consistently break away from their underwhelming coverage, improving the quality of their shot attempts at multiple levels of the court to help pull away on the scoreboard and clear the over on their team total.

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