Howard Gets Another Shot at History vs. Michigan (and Might Pull it Off)

It took them five tries, but the Howard Bison got the program’s first NCAA Tournament win when they defeated the UMBC Retrievers Tuesday night. It was a proud moment for fans, players, and head coach Kenneth Blakeney.

Blakeney made his feelings clear in his postgame interview: “I’m so proud of these guys because it’s not about me, it’s about Howard and their student experience.”

They were slight favorites heading into Tuesday night’s game against UMBC at -1.5. But heading into Thursday night’s contest vs. the No. 1-seeded Michigan Wolverines is going to be a much different story.  

The line opened for Michigan vs. Howard with the Wolverines as 30.5-point favorites, but it has already moved to 31.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbooks while moving down to 30.5 at others. Either way, the sentiment is clear: Howard doesn’t stand a chance.

They are destined to lose like almost every other No. 16 seed that has come before them. The keyword there is “almost.” Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds have gone 158-2 in the first round (round of 64).

As Loyd Christmas would say, ”So, you’re saying there’s a chance…”

History in the Making… Again?

Howard has already made history in Tournament play by winning the program’s first Tournament game. A win over Michigan would, of course, be historic on many different levels. 

It would make the Bison the second No. 16 seed to win two games in Tournament play. The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights were the first in 2023 when they beat Texas Southern and then shocked the world by beating No. 1 Purdue in the Round of 64.

A win would make them just the fourth HBCU to advance to the second round (Norfolk State, 2012; Coppin State, 1997; and Southern University, 1993). The game would also go down as the biggest upset in Tournament history, assuming the spread remains relatively close to where it is (31-points).

Farleigh Dickinson currently holds the record for beating Purdue in 2023 despite being 23.5-point underdogs. But as big of a moment as it would be, a win would hold even more significance for Howard and other HBCUs. 

They’ll become the fifth HBCU to beat a Power Conference team in Tournament play and first since Norfolk State (another MEAC team) knocked off Missouri in 2012. A win will also make them the first HCBU to defeat Michigan.

Do They Stand a Chance?

The odds are most certainly stacked against the Bison in this Matchup, according to the March Madness betting sites. The moneyline at +3500 gives them a whopping 2.78% chance of winning. All signs are pointing towards another massive loss for a No. 16-seeded team at the hands of a No. 1 seed.

But it might not happen. There is a road that could take the Bison to victory.

Howard has an effective field goal percentage of 51.9%, so it is possible. To beat Michigan, a hot night from three-point range is a must. Howard shot 35% from behind the line this season and averaged under seven per game.

Against a Michigan defense that is stingy on the perimeter, that will not be good enough. 

However, Howard made 40% or better from three-point range this season in 11 games. Their game highs were 11 vs. Coppin State (March 2) on 25 attempts and 10 three-pointers vs. South Carolina State (10-18, Feb.21), neither of which will likely be enough.

They only take around 20 three-point attempts per game, but against the Wolverines, they’ll need to take closer to 30 (if not more). To create those shots, they’ll need to pick up the tempo and play at a quicker pace than Michigan wants to.

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Michigan Reality

Opponents are shooting right around 30% from three-point range against Michigan. The Wolverines allowed three teams to shoot 40% or better from three-point range and won two of them. 

The Wolverines excel at controlling the tempo and pace in games, and do not give up many open looks at the basket (which Howard will need). It doesn’t look good for Howard. Never say never, but the Bison will need March Madness to live up to the name for them to make history again.