Most Likely Upsets March Madness 2026 - Elite 8

The Sweet 16 did not disappoint, setting us up for an incredible Elite 8 this weekend. Three one-seeds remain in contention for the Final Four, while a pair of underdogs in #6 Tennessee and #9 Iowa snuck in. We expect to see four great games, but two stand out as likely upsets we can cash in on.

We’ll share our reasoning behind each and the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbooks. If you are looking to sign up with Caesars to bet on March Madness, be sure to use promo code WSNDYW to claim your welcome offer: Bet $1, Double Your Winning 10x.

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#2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #1 Arizona Wildcats

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbooks. 

No team has looked more impressive than Arizona during this year’s NCAA Tournament. They’ve won all three of their game by double-digits, including an impressive 21-point victory against #4 Arkansas in the Elite 8. Their success stems from a deep, efficient offense, with at least four players scoring 10+ points in each of their three tournament victories.

Purdue has had a far more challenging road to the Elite 8.

The talented Boilermakers crushed #15 Queens University before handling a dangerous #7 Miami team. Things got far more complicated against #11 Texas, which was playing far better than its seed. The Sean Miller-led Longhorns were neck-and-neck with Purdue all game, but the Boilermakers made a crucial shot in the final seconds to earn the win.

While Purdue was a bad bounce away from losing in the Sweet 16, we saw them play with poise and get the job done. Games like that build a lot of character, especially ahead of a matchup like they have tonight.

Arizona has been incredible, but they have not been in a dogfight since the tournament tipped off. Purdue won’t go down big, and their defense will provide far more of a challenge than the Wildcats’ previous opponents. With the game remaining close, Purdue’s rocky path to the Elite 8 will hand them a critical advantage and earn them a trip to the Final Four. 

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#6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. #1 Michigan Wolverines

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbooks. 

We had been anticipating an Elite 8 matchup between Iowa State and Michigan, but the Volunteers ensured that didn’t happen.

Tennessee has had the look of a Final Four team during the tournament. They faced a tough Round of 64 matchup against a 32-2 Miami (Ohio) team before taking out #3 Virginia. 

However, it was the team’s 76-62 win over #2 Iowa State that sold us on their Final Four chances. A big reason for the dominant win was the Volunteers' defense, which held the Cyclones to 39% from the field and 22% from three. That, along with their strong rebounding, allowed them to overcome 17 turnovers forced by Iowa State's fast hands.

The Wolverines offense has been driving their success during March Madness, scoring 90+ points in all three wins. While we already knew they were one of the best offensive teams in the country, they haven’t faced a true defensive team like Tennessee. Given that the Volunteers held Alabama, the nation’s top scoring team, to less than 74 points twice during the regular season.

The combination of an unexpected opponent and elite defense will create an opening for another Tennessee upset, and we believe the Volunteers will capitalize.

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