March Madness Tips Off: Can UMBC Recapture the Magic Against Howard?

After beating Vermont in the America East Conference Championship, UMBC has stamped their ticket and are heading back to the NCAA Tournament. The Retrievers famously made headlines back in 2018 when they were the first 16 seed to upset a 1 seed, taking down the Virginia Cavaliers in stunning fashion.

If UMBC wants to make history again, then they must first get past Howard in their first four matchup on Tuesday night. The Bison head into the tournament with some momentum, skating past North Carolina Central in the MEAC Conference Championship.

A Matchup Between Two Feisty Conference Champions

Kicking things off is a matchup between UMBC and Howard, two conference champions who were in a tier above the rest of their competition for the majority of the regular season. Per Kenpom, UMBC finished the year with a Net Ranking of 185th, 55 spots higher than the next team in the American East which was Vermont at 240th.

Even though the Retrievers do not really excel on either end of the court, their well-balanced approach helps limit the amount of variance in their contests, making them not overly reliant on one side having to play flawlessly in order for them to win. Their ability to smother shots without fouling played a major role in their success, ranking in the top-30 in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage and in Free Throw Rate.

While their lack of Havoc is a major cause for concern, UMBC does get the benefit of facing off against a Howard offense who turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the nation. This will allow them to cut into their total number of possessions, leading to a higher volume of scoring opportunities on the other end.

Speaking of scoring opportunities, expect the Retrievers to crash the glass at a heavy rate to generate high-quality shots near the rim, taking advantage of a Bison defense who resides near the bottom of the board in Def Rebound Percentage. With clear advantages on both sides of the court, expect the Retrievers to advance to the first round, setting themselves up for another potential historical matchup.

Will the Dogs Bark Again

In 2018, silence fell over every Virginia watch party when their Cavaliers were the first one seed to lose to a 16 seed. An unfathomable accomplishment at the time that is still just as shocking to watch when looking back at it.

Flash forward to this year and UMBC will need to be near perfect again if they want to be the first program in the history of the tournament to pull it off twice as they would face off against Michigan who sits near the top of the odds to win the NCAA National Championship. Especially when factoring in how well-rounded the Wolverines are, ranking in the top-10 in Adjusted Offensive and in Defensive Net Rating.

If the Retrievers did want to make it uncomfortably close, they would need to slow the game down to their preferred pace of play, a unit who ranks 242nd in Adjusted Tempo. A drastic difference from the Wolverines who prefer to zip up and down the court at a lightning-fast pace. By forcing the Wolverines into more halfcourt sets, their total number of possessions on offense will decline, increasing the likelihood of UMBC being able to keep it close on the scoreboard.

How to Bet on UMBC Retrievers

Unfortunately for UMBC, their chances of capturing lightning in a bottle twice is zero to none as they lack the production that is needed to give the Wolverines fits. Their inability to keep them out of the paint will allow Michigan to abuse the middle, helping them snap out of any scoring lull which will lessen the Retrievers chances of generating an upset.

If you want to do a roll over, place a prediction on UMBC to win outright against Howard on Tuesday (53% at Kalshi at the time of writing) and then place your winnings on Michigan to cover the spread in the next round. You can also wait to place a live wager instead, giving you the ability to see if UMBC can turn their matchup against Michigan into a snail's pace, potentially giving you the opportunity to bet on the Wolverines' moneyline instead at a discount.

Grab a $10 Bonus at Kalshi with Code WSN