Victory Means Something Different for TCU and Duke

When the TCU Horned Frogs and Duke Blue Devils face off at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, SC, in NCAA Tournament second-round action, both will be looking for the same thing: a win. With that win, they’ll get to move on to the Sweet 16 and keep their national title hopes alive.

But while a win will get either team the same thing, a ticket to the next round, it is not going to mean the same thing.

Redemption for the Duke Blue Devils

Despite being ranked No. 1 in the polls, there was not as much excitement surrounding the Blue Devils as there should have been when the regular season ended.

Why not? Because of the losses of Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba to injuries, there were some who doubted whether this Blue Devils team was still a legit contender.

They, of course,  proved they were still the team to beat come Tournament time by winning the ACC Tournament Championship.

But then they had to go and beat Sienna by only 6 points, even though they were favored by 28.5. Head coach Jon Scheyer didn’t hold back when talking about the Sienna game on Friday:

“Our competitive spirit was not there where it needed to be. You have to go into this thing as the aggressors. That’s why we’ve been really good and we’ve had the year that we’ve had.”

He went on to assure fans that the team would be back to where it needed to be on Saturday: “Our talk and energy, I can tell you it will be back on Saturday. I know these guys, and it will be back the way it needs to be.”

TCU Is Looking for a Shot at History

Duke can remind fans of how good they are with a win over TCU on Saturday, but the Horned Frogs will have a shot at making history in a number of different ways.

A win would be a first for the Horned Frogs vs. Duke, and their first win against a No. 1 seed in Tournament play. But it goes a little deeper for TCU, because a win would give them two victories in the same Tournament.

Not only that, but it would give the Horned Frogs a ticket to the Sweet 16 for the first time since the 1970 season. But it will be sweeter than the other four trips (1952,1953, 1959, and 1968) because they earned it.

In the other seasons, the Tournament only had 16 teams.

“We know we have a chance to do something special,” sophomore forward Micah Robinson said. “We’re one game away from making history.”

TCU vs. Duke: Who's it Going to Be?

If you look at the odds, Duke is destined to reassert their dominance with a nice win. With a -800 moneyline (at FanDuel), the Blue Devils have an 88.89% chance of getting the win. They are favored by 11.5 points, down from where it opened at -12.5.

TCU, by comparison, has just a 15.15% chance of winning (+560).

The public has gotten behind the Blue Devils with 92% of moneyline tickets on Duke. But there appears to be more smart money on TCU. Only 8% of tickets are on the Horned Frogs, but 29% of the handle.

As for the spread, 49% of tickets are on TCU, and 51% are on Duke, with the Horned Frogs getting 59% of the handle and the Blue Devils getting 41%.

The public tends to lean towards the favorite. So sportsbooks were likely pleased when seven games were won by underdogs and nine ATS. Of course, most of those moneylines had short odds and little value.

I’m going with Duke to cover at -11.5 (-110 odds at FanDuel). TCU played a good game against a good Ohio State team and won by just two. The Blue Devils are one of, if not the, best teams in the country. They didn’t look like it vs. Sienna, but they’ll be focused and determined to show the world that the Sienna game is the exception to the rule.

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