NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread: The 2025 Season Begins With Style

• The Eagles were a league-best 14-7 against the spread last year

• The Titans, meanwhile, were a league-worst 2-15

• The Broncos (-7.5) and Titans have the largest spread of Week 1

An entire offseason spent painfully waiting for football’s return will have all been worth it when the teams take the field for the first time.

The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles will get the new season underway by hosting the Dallas Cowboys in primetime. The Baltimore Ravens, meanwhile, are favored to win the upcoming Super Bowl, but they’ll get a brutal Week 1 test on Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills.

With those headlines and many more percolating, here are my best bets against the spread for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.

NFL Week 1 Predictions and Odds

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Cowboys vs. Eagles - Sept. 4, 8:20 PM ET 

• Spread: Cowboys +7 (-110), Eagles -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys +255, Eagles -315

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

The Cowboys are kicking off the Brian Schottenheimer era with a tough divisional road matchup against the Super Bowl champions. Dak Prescott is returning from a major hamstring injury, but he’ll have the added help of George Pickens outside of the numbers. Their defensive outlook hinges heavily on the situation involving Micah Parsons, who is holding out for a new contract.

The Eagles will roll into the new season on the back of an end-of-year stretch that saw them win 16 of their final 17 games en route to a Lombardi Trophy. They have a young defense and an extra-young secondary that could take time to gel, but they can get after the quarterback and have as much overall talent as any team in the league.

Concerns of a Super Bowl hangover are valid, and it’s worth noting that Philly has yet another new offensive coordinator on the clipboard. Dallas has many holes, and Schottenheimer is a huge question mark, but Prescott can be a great player on his day. This feels like a back-and-forth battle that the Cowboys cover due to the large line.

Cowboys vs. Eagles pick: Cowboys +7 (-110) at bet365 at bet365

See our early odds and picks for the Cowboys vs Eagles matchup in week 1.

Chiefs vs. Chargers - Sept. 5, 8:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115), Chargers +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -140, Chargers +120

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Chiefs were 60 minutes away from becoming the NFL’s first-ever three-peat Super Bowl champions, but the manner in which they were demolished could have lasting effects. Their roster isn’t overly talented on the offensive end, Patrick Mahomes has fallen out of favor with the deep ball, and the defense didn’t make any upgrades during the summer.

On the other side, the Chargers cleaned house on defense despite just finishing fifth in EPA allowed per play. Justin Herbert will have more weapons around him thanks to the additions of Tre Harris, Omarion Hampton, and Najee Harris, which should make the Chargers’ offense more explosive. They’re still looking to beat the Chiefs for the first time in the Harbaugh era after going 0-2 last year.

While KC got the better of the head-to-head matchups in 2024, the Chargers held their rival to just 17 and 19 points scored in their two face-offs. LA’s offense is better equipped, and the Chiefs are old, physically and mentally tired, and didn’t get noticeably better during the offseason. I have a feeling that there’s an upset brewing here, although taking the Chargers on the spread is the safer option.

Chiefs vs. Chargers pick: Chargers +2.5 (-105) at bet365

Read our early predictions for the Chiefs vs Chargers matchup.

Cardinals vs. Saints - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Cardinals -6 (-110), Saints +6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals -245, Saints +200

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

The Cardinals feel like they’ve been the same team for several years now. The potential Marvin Harrison Jr. breakout year is loading, but James Conner appears ready to take a step back in overall workload. The defense was also dealt a blow when rookie defensive tackle Walter Nolen III went down with an injury, and they still need multiple upgrades to become a well-rounded team.

The Saints could easily finish with the worst record in football this season. Tyler Shough, despite playing six years of college football, wasn’t great at Louisville, and is now going against NFL talent. The defense is old and unimpressive overall, and they lost a crucial offensive lineman, Ryan Ramczyk, to retirement.

The Saints will probably be horrible this year. Kyler Murray has his flaws, but he can beat up on a terrible team, particularly if Harrison Jr. is ready to take a leap this season. I’d lay the full six points with the Cardinals purely out of belief that the Saints will be the laughingstock of the league.

Cardinals vs. Saints pick: Cardinals -6 (-110) at bet365

Panthers vs. Jaguars - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Panthers +2.5 (-105), Jaguars -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Panthers +125, Jaguars -150

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Bryce Young finally found his stride toward the end of last season, and he now has 6-foot-5 rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan to make his life easier. Trench play is a concern, but they quietly have a playmaking secondary and some potential solid starters in the linebacking corps. There’s intrigue surrounding this team, though they still haven’t proven anything.

Liam Coen worked wonders with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense and is now in charge of revitalizing Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. The Brian Thomas Jr.-Travis Hunter tandem will be tough for any team to deal with, but Jacksonville’s defense has lots of room for improvement. Having an offensive-minded head coach won’t help either.

There are reasons to like pieces, but not the whole of both teams. Lawrence has a higher floor than Young, but both QBs could reasonably look like new players thanks to the development of their receiver room. This could end up being a high-scoring shootout.

Panthers vs. Jaguars pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-115) at bet365

Bengals vs. Browns - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Bengals -5.5 (-110), Browns +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bengals -240, Browns +190

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

The Bengals will play Joe Burrow and the starters extra reps during the preseason with the hope of negating the slow starts they endured in recent seasons. Cincy’s offense is beyond question, but their defense was abysmal last year and may not have standout pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson. Lou Anarumo was also a solid defensive coordinator, and his replacement, Al Golden, will be a first-timer in the NFL.

The Browns are a bit of a disaster right now, whether it be their stockpiling of quarterbacks, Quinshon Judkins’ uncertain situation, or the strong imbalance between Myles Garrett and the rest of his defensive teammates. Joe Flacco can score points, but he can just as easily turn the ball over.

It’s been easy to fade the Bengals in years past early in the year, but Golden was great at Notre Dame, and the offense will come in having played real reps in the preseason. I’d take the chalk to dominate in Week 1.

Bengals vs. Browns pick: Bengals -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Raiders vs. Patriots - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Raiders +3 (-115), Patriots -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Raiders +130, Patriots -155

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

Pete Carroll has made contact in Las Vegas, where he’ll reunite with Geno Smith and contend for the toughest division title in football. Ashton Jeanty could easily become a top-five running back in the NFL by the end of the year, giving the team a lethal play-action with Brock Bowers as the receiving threat. Their defense is undermanned, but that’s Carroll’s specialty.

The Patriots are also trying to completely reshape their franchise in Mike Vrabel’s first year as their head coach. TreVeyon Henderson is an exciting addition next to Drake Maye, and the Pats paid top dollar to upgrade their defense. Christian Gonzalez was banged up during training camp and is a bit of a question mark here.

Both teams started in similar spots and have similar goals, which are to get to .500 and contend for a Wild Card spot. The Raiders are the more veteran team, but the Pats have the more exciting young talent. This should be a close game, and my pick is dictated by the line value.

Raiders vs. Patriots pick: Raiders +3 (-115) at bet365

Dolphins vs. Colts - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +1 (-120), Colts -1 (+100)

• Moneyline: Dolphins -105, Colts -115

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play poorly when he was under center last year, but the problem was that he was rarely available. Mike McDaniel hasn’t demonstrated an ability to elevate his team against elite competition, but the defense is solid, particularly following the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick. 

On one hand, a quarterback competition between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones likely ends with no winners and two losers. On the other, Shane Steichen is a great offensive mind who can get his team to around .500 with terrible QB play, and anything better could result in a winning season. The secondary added standout Charvarius Ward to bolster what was a glaring weakness in 2024.

Are the Dolphins at the end of the line for this iteration of their team? Tagovailoa is always injured, McDaniel is frustrated, and their best offensive player, Tyreek Hill, is getting older and is causing trouble in the locker room. The Colts will have lots of variance, but they have enough to win this game thanks to their defensive upgrades. The moneyline is the better pick here, but I’d back the home team.

Dolphins vs. Colts pick: Colts -1 (+100) at bet365

Giants vs. Commanders - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Giants +6.5 (-110), Commanders -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Giants +240, Commanders -300

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

Jayden Daniels will look to follow his Rookie of the Year campaign against a Giants team that he found great success against last year. He’ll enjoy the upgraded protection from a refurbished offensive line, while the defense had a ton of movement on the line and in the secondary. The Commanders only beat the Giants by three and five points in their meetings last year.

The G-Men have one of the best top-fives in the NFL and will be a handful on the defensive line thanks to Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Russell Wilson saw the Commanders with the Pittsburgh Steelers last year and gets to team up with the unguardable Malik Nabers. The problem for the G-Men will be finding consistency against a team that seemed to always have answers, no matter the situation, a year ago.

Expectations for the Commanders are much higher than they are for the Giants, but the latter should still be a competitive team. The question here largely hinges on the availability and sharpness of Terry McLaurin, but even if he’s a non-factor, Daniels looked like an NFL MVP candidate in the making. Expect both teams to make plays and for the Commanders to win by at least a touchdown.

Giants vs. Commanders pick: Commanders -6.5 (-110) at bet365

Steelers vs. Jets - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Steelers -3 (-105), Jets +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Steelers -160, Jets +135

• Total: Over/under 38.5 (-110/-110)

The betting public is high on the Steelers’ outlook, but allow me to offer a word of warning. Aaron Rodgers did not play well last year and will soon be 42 years old at the head of an offense that has appeared outdated. DK Metcalf is new to town, but Alex Highsmith is banged up, and Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay are being asked to play large roles for an old defense.

It’s only right that Justin Field and Aaron Rodgers get to seek revenge on their former teams. The Jets will face trouble with first- and second-year tackles going against the Steelers’ hellacious pass-rush, but their defense is still solid. A lot will come down to the play of Fields, who reportedly did not have a strong training camp.

The modern Steelers don’t blow many teams off the field, and Rodgers is greatly diminished compared to the player he once was. That said, the Jets’ offense is going to be in for a long day, especially with a first-year and defensive-minded head coach. I cautiously prefer the Steelers on the spread. 

Steelers vs. Jets pick: Steelers -3 (-105) at bet365

Buccaneers vs. Falcons - Sept. 7, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers -1.5 (-110), Falcons +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers -125, Falcons +105

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

The Buccaneers have all of the tools in place to have the highest-scoring offense in the league, but that will only materialize if new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard can unlock their full potential. The defense will always be able to get after the passer under Todd Bowles, but there are questions about their secondary. Signing Haason Reddick was also a huge gamble that could have enormous consequences in either direction.

Michael Penix Jr. did not show his full potential and arm talent last year. He gets a fresh slate with a talented supporting cast and continuity within the system that is always important for young players. Jalon Walker has the chance to be a terrific pro, but it’s unclear if the team has found a way to fix its woes getting after opposing quarterbacks.

The Falcons have real upside this season, but the Buccaneers are being unfairly discounted. They’re solid all over the field, and they have the better quarterback and better weapons, making them the better pick to kick off the season.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons pick: Buccaneers -1.5 (-110) at bet365

49ers vs. Seahawks - Sept. 7, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: 49ers -2 (-115), Seahawks +2 (-105)

• Moneyline: 49ers -135, Seahawks +115

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

This will be one of the 49ers’ most difficult games of the season, which says a lot about their upcoming schedule. The addition of Mykel Williams could prove to be a game-changer if they can unlock his full potential, though he was inconsistent at Georgia. Brock Purdy also quietly had a strong year last year, but faces uncertainty due to poor offensive line play and recent injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk.

There’s a lot to like about what Mike MacDonald has done since he took over the Seahawks. Partnering Cooper Kupp with Jaxon Smith-Njigba should make the offense unguardable over the middle of the field, and it’s up to Sam Darold to prove that his last year wasn’t a fluke. The defense is young, athletic, and physical, and will be better at bringing pressure thanks to the addition of DeMarcus Lawrence.

The 49ers could win 12 games this year and still not even be a good team purely because of their schedule. This, however, is a tall order for them, as the Seahawks have a tremendous home crowd, and neither team will be in rhythm in Week 1. It’s reasonable to expect an upset here.

49ers vs. Seahawks pick: Seahawks +2 (-105) at bet365

Titans vs. Broncos - Sept. 7, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Titans +7.5 (-110), Broncos -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +310, Broncos -390

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The Titans are entering the Cam Ward era, which means there will be highlight plays, forgettable moments, and growing pains. Their offensive line has a chance to be around league average, and their playmaking group is passable. They also spent money and capital to upgrade their defense and have standouts on the line and in the secondary, but their speed in the middle of the field is in question.

The Broncos didn’t do much to help Bo Nix, which could lead to a potential sophomore slump if the offensive line isn’t as outstanding as it was a year ago. That said, the defense is overwhelmingly talented and added impact players such as Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, and Jahdae Barron just one year after they led the league in EPA allowed per play. That gives them a high floor regardless of who’s on their schedule.

This is a tough call to make. The Broncos’ excellent defense will inevitably present problems for the rookie Ward in his first professional game, but he’s also gutsy enough to make plays that will get the Titans on the board. Although an upset remains unlikely, spotting the Titans more than a touchdown could be a mistake. 

Titans vs. Broncos pick: Titans +7.5 (-110) at bet365

Lions vs. Packers - Sept. 7, 4:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Lions +2 (-110), Packers -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Lions +110, Packers -130

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

Losing both coordinators will be tough to overcome, particularly in Week 1 on the road against a divisional opponent. That said, the Lions probably have the third-most talented roster in the league and have playmakers at every unit on both sides of the ball. They also beat the Packers both times they met last year and will have a sour taste in their mouth after they lost in the playoffs at home as the one seed.

The Packers broke their streak of not drafting a receiver in the first round, but their selection, Matthew Golden, appears to be another of their many receiving options that would play best as the second or third option. Their defense improved significantly under defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley last year, but they’ll have to continue that ascension without Jaire Alexander. Jordan Love also had just one touchdown and one interception against the Lions last season.

It’s too early in the year for Green Bay’s outdoor environment and home-field advantage to play a pivotal role in this matchup. The Lions are the more established and better team, and Dan Campbell will have them ready to roll following last season’s disappointing conclusion. Being able to grab the Lions as an underdog won’t happen often, and it is enticing.

Lions vs. Packers pick: Lions +2 (-110) at bet365

Texans vs. Rams - Sept. 7, 4:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Texans +3 (-120), Rams -3 (+100)

• Moneyline: Texans +125, Rams -150

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Texans are spoiled for options in the receiving game, but they should struggle to run the ball following the loss of Laremy Tunsil and injury to Joe Mixon. Their defense was nightmareish for opposing quarterbacks and added C.J. Gardner-Johnson, which is like pouring gasoline on an open fire. This team will be explosive and won’t give up many easy yards.

One of the biggest surprises of 2024 was the rapid ascension of the Rams’ young defense, which finished the year by playing at a high level. Matthew Stafford is back, and although Kupp isn’t, Davante Adams is now in his place. This is a team with a nice blend of youth and veterans that has a genius head coach pulling the strings. 

The Rams have gotten off to slow starts in recent years and adapted to their strengths and limitations. They have a positive long-term outlook, but the Texans’ explosiveness and ability to hold up against the pass can’t be ignored. This could go either way, but there’s value on the Texans since they’re catching a full field goal.

Texans vs. Rams pick: Texans +3 (-120) at bet365

Ravens vs. Bills - Sept. 7, 8:20 PM ET 

• Spread: Ravens +1 (-105), Bills -1 (-115)

• Moneyline: Ravens +100, Bills -120

• Total: Over/under 52 (-110/-110)

The Ravens are in a two-horse race with the Eagles for the best roster in the NFL. Lamar Jackson played the best of any quarterback last year, the secondary got even better with the additions of Jaire Alexander and Malaki Starks, and they thumped the Bills in Week 4 last year, 35-10. They then fell to them in the playoffs, but they know they can beat them and upgraded their roster this summer.

Offensively, the Bills should just be more of the same, assuming James Cook’s holdout ends before they take the field for the first time. Defensively, they will get Matt Milano back from an injury and added Joey Bosa and rookie corner Maxwell Hairston. They don’t have as many game-winning players as the Ravens, but they are solid everywhere.

The Ravens have a ridiculously high ceiling, while the Bills are as consistent as any team in the league when it comes to winning regular-season games. Both teams have reason to be upset with how their seasons finished last year, and both know their opponent well. This should be nip and tuck the entire way, but Baltimore’s talent advantage makes them a better pick.

Ravens vs. Bills pick: Ravens +1 (-105) at bet365

Vikings vs. Bears - Sept. 8, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Vikings +1 (-115), Bears -1 (-105)

• Moneyline: Vikings -110, Bears -110

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

There seems to be real concern about J.J. McCarthy, and for good reason. He tore his ACL at the start of his rookie season last year and was already a bit of a project, seeing as he wasn’t asked to do much during a national championship-winning season at the University of Michigan. That said, the Vikings are spoiled for riches at every position on offense and ranked fourth in points allowed per game in 2024. 

Caleb Williams has everything to prove this year, and if he fails, the fire under his seat will become a roaring inferno. Ben Johnson’s primary job will be to unlock the best version of Williams, which, if it doesn’t happen with these playmakers and offensive linemen, never will. The defense showed its potential early on last year but fell off a cliff down the stretch.

It’s tough to bet on who is effectively a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut on the road against a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football after tearing his ACL. The Bears are far from a guarantee, but they are the safer pick, despite Kevin O’Connell being a genius head coach.

Vikings vs. Bears pick: Bears -1 (-105) at bet365

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