NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread: Primetime Thrillers and a Super Bowl Rematch

• The Colts covered the spread by the highest margin (25 points) in Week 1

• There were no noticeable differences between teams based on venue or as favorites/underdogs

• The Ravens (-11.5) are the largest favorites of the week against the Browns

The 2025 NFL season got off to a bang, as did I, starting with a 57.1 percent success rate with my picks against the spread (and multiple half- or one-point losses).

The biggest shock of the week was the Indianapolis Colts covering the spread by 25 points in a pick’em against the Miami Dolphins. The top two teams against the spread last year, the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions, also failed to cover the first time of asking, one in a win and the other in a loss.

Week 2’s games start off hot with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Commanders in a potential NFC Championship Game preview, and they conclude with a Monday Night Football double-header. Here are my best picks against the spread for NFL Week 2.

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• My 2025 NFL Betting Stats: 8-6-2 (57.1% ATS)

Week 2 Picks ATS

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Commanders vs. Packers - Sept. 11, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +3.5 (-110), Packers -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders +155, Packers -185

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

The Commanders’ offense never got out of second gear against the Giants, yet they covered the second-largest spread of Week 1 with ease. That was largely due to their defense holding an opponent out of the end zone for the first time in one game since 2020, thanks to an utterly dominant display from their front seven. Jayden Daniels and company also figure to get better with more reps now that several players are back from injuries and hold-ins.

The Packers put a beating on the Lions, and now get a short turnaround to back up their status as NFC contenders. Jordan Love made plays through the air, though Green Bay’s offense impressively got to 27 points while only gaining 266 total yards. Their defense held the Lions to a terrible 3.8 yards per play and 13 points, while Micah Parsons got a debut sack.

This has all of the makings of a close game, regardless of how many total points are scored. Both teams can be ultra-aggressive on offense, or they can run the air out of the football and play within the margins. The right team is favored, but the line value makes this a must-bet for the Commanders.

Commanders vs. Packers pick: Commanders +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Bills vs. Jets - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -6.5 (-110), Jets +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills -315, Jets +255

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Bills rallied from 40-25 down to score 16 points in the final four minutes of their Sunday Night classic with the Baltimore Ravens. Getting reps against Lamar Jackson is an excellent way to prepare for Justin Fields, and the Buffalo offense looked like it hadn’t skipped a beat. It’s not surprising to see the Super Bowl favorites as one of the largest favorites of the week.

I got burned by the Jets in a two-point loss to the Steelers when I had the latter -2.5 – such is life. Justin Fields did a nice job utilizing his arm and his legs, although it was a dominant day from Breece Hall that headlined the Jets’ unexpectedly high-scoring day. More importantly, their defense surrendered 34 points, which will prove to be a problem if that becomes standard.

Let’s not overreact to one week. Field has proven his inconsistency, while Allen has proven his excellence, just as recently as Sunday night. I’ll take the proven team with the proven coach and the proven quarterback, even if I’m laying nearly a touchdown on the road.

Bills vs. Jets pick: Bills -6.5 (-110) at bet365

Bears vs. Lions - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears +5 (-110), Lions -5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bears +200, Lions -245

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Of the many words that come to mind to describe the Bears’ epic home loss to the Vikings on Monday Night Football, “disgraceful” feels like the right way to start. Minnesota’s offense had nothing going all game, while Caleb Williams started fast and got a pick-six from his defense to help out. However, Williams missed a ton of throws down the stretch, and Ben Johnson lost the battle of in-game management to Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores.

The Lions weren’t ready for a Week 1 bloodbath against the Packers and were sent licking their wounds following a 27-13 loss. Jared Goff threw an interception in the red zone that changed the complexion of the game, despite the Lions’ defense playing okay. The question is whether the offense without Ben Johnson is toast or if they can make the necessary adjustments to get ready for another divisional opponent.

The Bears won’t win games with Williams’ inconsistency and overall inaccuracy. The Lions didn’t impress, but Dan Campbell has proven his ability to talk to his players and drag them out of tough times. Detroit also gets to go back to its favored home environment, which is a huge advantage for its style of offense.

Bears vs. Lions pick: Lions -5 (-110) at bet365

Browns vs. Ravens - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +12.5 (-110), Ravens -12.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +525, Ravens -750

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Losing to the Week 1 Cincinnati Bengals could arguably be likened to losing to the any-week Browns… so there’s that. Joe Flacco predictably moved the ball down the field but threw two interceptions, while the lead running back, Dylan Sampson, gained 29 total yards. This is a defense-first team that will need everything it can muster against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

John Harbaugh might not ever shake his fourth-quarter demons, but there’s a low likelihood that this is a close game. Jackson and Henry were outstanding against the Bills, and the only way for the defense to go is up. That said, the Browns kept six of the last nine matchups between the two within 10 points.

This is the ultimate thought experiment. The Browns have actually played the Ravens well recently, and Baltimore’s defense looked vulnerable. There’s a chance that the Ravens use this as a revenge game, but there’s also the reality that the Browns aren’t looked at as a credible enough threat to be classified as vengeance, leaving this as a shocking cover for the underdogs. 

Browns vs. Ravens pick: Browns +12.5 (-110) at bet365

Jaguars vs. Bengals - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars +3.5 (-115), Bengals -3.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Jaguars +155, Bengals -185

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

Travis Etienne’s excellent day on the ground headlined the Jaguars’ 26-10 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence didn’t post an amazing box score, although he controlled the game well. It’s tough to get a gauge on the Jags’ defense because of their last opponent, but they will be tested this time around.

The Bengals just can’t start the season on the right foot. They should be at an advantage against the Jags, but their terrible defense looks ready to surrender yards to even a high school team. Ja’Marr Chase was shockingly held in check last week, but that should change.

The 3.5-point line should pull me toward the Jaguars, but I – with reservations – will back the Bengals. Their high-powered offense is still waiting to explode, and I need more evidence that the Jags have a competent defense. It will also take time for the home team to properly figure out usage for Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter together.

Jaguars vs. Bengals pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110) at bet365

Rams vs. Titans - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -5.5 (-110), Titans +5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -250, Titans +205

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

The Rams’ season didn’t get off to a storybook beginning, but it did result in a 14-9 win over the stingy Houston Texans. Matthew Stafford did his job, while the defense only surrendered 265 total yards and the aforementioned nine points. This defense improved every week last year, and the wide receiver pairing of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams will be tough for any team in the league to stop.

Cam Ward made some high-level throws in his NFL debut, but he also struggled to complete passes. The Titans will face problems with their offensive line and receivers, even if their defense did a nice job at shutting down Denver’s momentum. This team has a low ceiling and a low floor overall.

The Rams didn’t look anywhere near their best, but there were mitigating circumstances. Stafford struggled to practice during the offseason due to injuries, and Sean McVay doesn’t play his starters in the preseason. This is a get-right spot for a Rams team that could be good enough to win the conference.

Rams vs. Titans pick: Rams -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Patriots vs. Dolphins - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots +1.5 (-110), Dolphins -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots +105, Dolphins -125

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

It’s easy to be disappointed with the Patriots since they largely looked the same as they did last year. However, an imbalanced run-pass attack against an intelligent coach such as Pete Carroll will do that. The defense has a chance to go against a Dolphins team that only scored eight points and was flat-out horrible in Week 1.

It can’t get worse than it was last week for Miami. Tua Tagovailoa had just 114 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, and the defense got completely outclassed by Daniel Jones. The Dolphins have now only beaten one team with a winning record since Week 16 of the 2023 season.

Both of these teams were supposed to be much better than they were in Week 1. Miami has more top-level talent, but there’s reason to believe the team has completely lost its confidence in coach Mike McDaniel and one another. This is a dangerous pick, but I’d look at the Patriots to pull off a cover on the road.

Patriots vs. Dolphins pick: Patriots +1.5 (-110) at bet365

Giants vs. Cowboys - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +6 (-110), Cowboys -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Giants +210, Cowboys -260

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The Giants had a flat-out horrid performance in Week 1 against the Commanders, and now, they get to turn around and go on the road to face the Cowboys. Russell Wilson got happy feet in the pocket, while the team’s stellar defensive line generated the third-lowest pressure rate of the first week. Malik Nabers looks ready to quit on the team, and Head Coach Brian Daboll is nothing short of a dead man walking.

Dallas defended the run well against the Eagles, and they got 10 days of rest to prepare for the G-Men. They could’ve possibly beaten the Birds if they didn’t fumble in plus territory and if CeeDee Lamb didn’t coat his gloves in butter before taking the field. There are still holes here, and they will have to put up with the Giants’ short game.

The Cowboys were much more impressive than the Giants were in Week 1. It’s easy to use that as a reason to immediately back the Cowboys, although I suspect they will have more success getting after the passer and using short passes to set up deep shots. I’d look for the Giants to cover, most likely in a loss.

Giants vs. Cowboys pick: Giants +6 (-110) at bet365 

Seahawks vs. Steelers - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks +3 (-115), Steelers -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Seahawks +125, Steelers -150

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

The Seahawks’ offense failed to get anything substantial going against a 49ers defense that has talent, but that has also dealt with lots of change. They forced two interceptions but gave two fumbles back to the Niners, which allowed the latter to march down the field for a game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes remaining in a 17-13 win. This team has problems running the ball, and it did not get Cooper Kupp involved at all in Week 1.

The Steelers’ offense probably isn’t as good as it looked, and their defense probably isn’t as bad as it looked. Regression to the mean is on the table for both sides of the ball, but that doesn’t mean they can’t do what they did in Week 1: win their game. Pittsburgh doesn’t have much of a running game, and that could prove to be problematic if they can’t control the clock.

The Seahawks are capable of making this an ugly scrap-fest thanks to Head Coach Mike MacDonald. I’m not high on either Sam Darnold or Aaron Rodgers, so it’s no surprise to see that this game has the lowest projected total of all Week 2 matchups. I’d ride with the Seahawks here because of the line value.

Seahawks vs. Steelers pick: Seahawks +3 (-115) at bet365

49ers vs. Saints - Sept. 14, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers -4.5 (-110), Saints +4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers -220, Saints +180

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The loss of George Kittle is a massive issue for the Niners, particularly with Christian McCaffrey looking like a shell of himself, and the overall receiving options being well below league-average. The defense stepped up against the Seahawks and doesn’t have a tall task with the Saints, but that’s still a lot of pressure to put on one side of the football. The question is whether Brock Purdy can play a clean game, or if he will turn the ball over, if he plays at all.

I said before the year that I believe the Saints will have the first pick in the draft, so I’m reluctant to show them any faith after they only scored 13 points and didn’t cover the spread in Week 1. That said, Spencer Rattler can move the football, even if he’s erratic and inconsistent. The Saints’ defense also got crushed on the ground last week.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I like the Saints against the spread. Rattler and Purdy are similar in terms of their ability to move the ball while still being a turnover risk, but the Niners’ injuries are alarming. The Saints are at home and weren’t that far off from being even with the Cardinals last week.

49ers vs. Saints pick: Saints +4.5 (-110) at bet365

Panthers vs. Cardinals - Sept. 14, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers +6.5 (-110), Cardinals -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Panthers +245, Cardinals -305

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Bryce Young might’ve produced the worst quarterback performance of Week 1, which is a massive concern for the third-year pro and former first-overall pick. The Panthers’ defense was average but will be at a talent disadvantage most times it steps on the field, regardless of the opponent. There simply haven’t been many reasons to expect anything positive from this team in years.

The Cardinals began their season with a win and a narrow cover on the road against the Saints, 20-13. Kyler Murray did a nice job moving the ball, while a balanced running game helped the offense control the time of possession. The defense also held the Saints to just 4.6 yards per play and 5-14 (35.7 percent) efficiency on third down.

Neither of these teams are world beaters. The Cardinals just beat a low-tier NFC South opponent, and they get the chance to do the same, but this time, on their home field. No matter how many weapons the Panthers draft in the first round to help Young, it’s going to be hard for them to overcome his poor play.

Panthers vs. Cardinals pick: Cardinals -6.5 (-110) at bet365

Broncos vs. Colts - Sept. 14, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos -2 (-110), Colts +2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos -125, Colts +105

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

Bo Nix’s sophomore slump either began last week, or his head was still in the offseason. The QB threw two interceptions and was terrible overall, although Denver’s running game surprisingly helped sustain drives and move the ball downfield. Their defense also figures to be around the top five in the league all year and just kept the lowly Titans to 12 total points in Cam Ward’s NFL debut.

The Colts outperformed the spread by a wider margin (25 points) than any team in the league in Week 1 during a resounding 33-8 victory over the Dolphins. Shane Steichen flexed his mental muscle and helped scheme up 272 passing yards and a touchdown for Daniel Jones, as well as 156 combined yards for the running back committee. The biggest story was the surprisingly impressive play of the defense, which figured to be well behind the offense.

I’m far from Nix’s biggest fan, but I have to believe that a coach like Sean Payton won’t let him fail miserably week in and week out. The Colts’ defense played well above its predicted standard, but I’d wait to see them prove themselves again before I start to make that the expectation. Give me the Broncos and their elite defense against a QB who was kicked out of New York, which has one of the worst QB situations in the league.

Broncos vs. Colts pick: Broncos -2 (-110) at bet365

Eagles vs. Chiefs - Sept. 14, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -1 (-110), Chiefs +1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles -115, Chiefs -105

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

The Eagles will certainly hope their Super Bowl rematch will go the same way the Big Game did, when they trounced the Chiefs, 40-22. Their running game was held in check as the Cowboys stuffed the box in Week 1, and Jalen Hurts was totally apprehensive throwing the ball downfield despite finding success as a runner. The biggest source of concern is in the secondary, where Adoree Jackson is expected to make another start at the CB2 slot.

Patrick Mahomes played a solid game in his team’s opening loss to the Chargers, though he didn’t manufacture his usual level of magic. Travis Kelce is a shell of his former self, and the team doesn’t have any semblance of a dependable running game. Their defense also didn’t bother the Chargers, who went 7-13 on third down, 1-1 on fourth down, and didn’t turn the ball over.

Neither one of these teams is as good as they were when they met in February. While that’s to be expected simply because of the time of year, the secondary concerns are a massive problem for a player as intelligent as Mahomes. I strangely feel like the Chiefs will get hit harder by regression, yet I think they’re in a better position for this matchup.

Eagles vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs +1 (-110) at bet365

Falcons vs. Vikings - Sept. 14, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-110), Vikings -4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons +180, Vikings -220

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The Falcons only lost their opener—a game in which Michael Penix Jr. threw for 298 yards and had two total touchdowns—because of a last-minute touchdown from Baker Mayfield to Emeka Egbuka. Their offense looked potent despite Bijan Robinson’s total lack of success on the ground, and their defense performed very well against one of the best offenses in the NFL. The loss was massive for the standings, but it showed that the Falcons can be a competitive team.

Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores proved once again that they are the best offensive and defensive pairing on any coaching staff in the NFL during their Week 1 victory over the Bears. J.J. McCarthy looked horrible early in his first-ever start, but he warmed into the game and made several clutch plays down the stretch. Minnesota has talent everywhere on offense, and the question is now which version of McCarthy is apparent more times than not.

I’m not willing to buy into the Vikings’ first-year QB, despite the comeback victory. He didn’t exert any control of the offense until the fourth quarter and gifted the Bears a pick-six, while Penix Jr. let the ball spin against the Bucs. An improved defense and a better showing from Robinson will give the Falcons a great chance to cover the spread.

Falcons vs. Vikings pick: Falcons +4.5 (-110) at bet365

Buccaneers vs. Texans - Sept. 15, 7:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers +2.5 (-105), Texans -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers +125, Texans -150

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

The Bucs, as mentioned, didn’t play great, but showed up in clutch moments. Their secondary remains suspect, but their offensive talent makes them virtually unguardable for most teams in the league. This will be an excellent test for them against one of the best defenses in football as they figure out their game plan with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.

I’m not concerned, but I’m curious as to what’s going on with the Texans’ offense. C.J. Stroud was limited to 188 yards and an interception against the Rams, getting him off to a start more akin to his pedestrian second season than his outstanding rookie campaign. Houston’s defense kept LA to 14 points and was exceptional last year, and there’s no reason to suspect they can’t continue that moving forward.

This is one of the toughest games to predict of the entire week. Both teams have offenses that should play better than they did in Week 1, although the Bucs were clearly better. At the same time, the Texans’ high-powered defense and home-field advantage should give them an advantage of their own.

Buccaneers vs. Texans pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-105) at bet365

Chargers vs. Raiders - Sept. 15, 10:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers -3.5 (-105), Raiders +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Chargers -185, Raiders +155

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

It was strange to see the Chargers attack the Chiefs downfield, but that’s exactly what happened in Week 1. Omarion Hampton didn’t do much on the ground in his NFL debut, but he’ll get plenty of opportunities in Jim Harbaugh’s system. The defense also did a nice job in key situations, while the team simply looked prepared and unfazed by the dominant Chiefs.

I earmarked the Raiders as a potential surprise team to watch, and they backed that up with an opening-week victory over the Patriots. Ashton Jeanty only averaged 2.0 yards per carry, but Geno Smith let it rip for 362 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a 20-13 win. It’s tough to tell if the defense is significantly better than advertised, or if the Pats’ offense is just behind expectations.

I don’t believe the Chargers’ system will allow them to run up the score against competent teams, and I believe in Smith’s ability to throw his team into close battles with their opponents. Underdogs have found success on the Monday Night Football stage, and a divisional matchup between legendary coaches is reason enough to expect a tight one. Give me the Raiders with the points.

Chargers vs. Raiders pick: Raiders +3.5 (-115) at bet365

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