With the New York Rangers struggling to create high quality scoring opportunities in front of the crease, the Ottawa Senators will be able to consistently smother their shot attempts and hold them under their team total. On the other side of the ice, positive regression looms large over Ottawa’s offense as the Rangers back line severely underwhelms in coverage, making it easier for the Senators to pressure their net at a high rate.
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With the Detroit Red Wings possessing a three point lead over Ottawa in the Presidents’ Trophy standings, the Senators must take advantage of their favorable matchup against the New York Rangers in order to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive.
Since the start of the regular season, the New York Rangers have been abysmal on offense, ranking near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Their lack of versatility makes it easier for opposing defenses to crowd their coverage in front of the net as only five players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals while no one on their active roster generates more than 3.00 Shots on Goal per game.
Unfortunately for the Rangers, their struggles on offense are poised to persist on Monday night as they face off against the Ottawa Senators who currently lead the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Linus Ullmark projected to get the start in net for Ottawa as the Senators goalie is averaging just 2.77 Goals Against per game. If James Reimer gets the start instead, then reduce the size of your wager.
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After a slow start to the year, the Ottawa Senators front line have been able to get into a groove, ranking above league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.28 Expected Goals per game. Their resurgence on offense has helped them reduce the amount of negative variance in their contests, increasing their chances of pulling away on the scoreboard to secure the win and move up the wildcard standings.
In a favorable matchup against the Rangers, the Senators front line will be able to build on their momentum, exploiting a defense who struggles in coverage per their bottom three mark in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots. Even with Igor Shesterkin playing at a high level, the Rangers inability to face guard will improve the quality of the Senators Shots on Goal, forcing the former Vezina Trophy winner to scramble across the ice which will widen the width of their shooting lanes beside him.
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Brady Tkachuk has helped spark the Senators turnaround on offense, averaging 0.51 Expected Goals and 3.82 Shots on Goal per game. With the Rangers back line struggling to stay in front of the puck, Tkachuk will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal in front of the net, increasing his chances of scoring. For some more exposure, escalator bet Tkachuk’s Anytime Goal Scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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