Premier League 2021 Top Scorer Prediction, Odds and Picks

Premier League Top Scorer

  • Liverpool have struggled this term but Mohamed Salah is as sharp as ever
  • Bruno Fernandes and Harry Kane are within touching distance of the Egyptian
  • Patrick Bamford and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have exceeded expectations this term

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Premier League Top Scorer Odds

Odds taken 1 March 2021 from BetMGM

Player Odds
Mohamed Salah (17 goals) -125
Harry Kane (14 goals) +500
Bruno Fernandes (15 goals) +750
Son Heung-min (13 goals) +1200
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (13 goals) +1400
Jamie Vardy (12 goals) +1400
Patrick Bamford (13 goals) +2200
Raheem Sterling (9 goals) +2500
Marcus Rashford (9 goals) +3300
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (8 goals) +3300

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Premier League Top Scorer Predictions and Picks

Mohamed Salah might be two goals clear in the race for this season’s Golden Boot, but plenty could change between now and the end of the campaign. The Liverpool forward is rightly considered the favorite if he stays fit – which is likely given his track record – but as many as six other players will still fancy their chances of finishing the campaign as the Premier League’s top scorer.

Salah will probably come out on top, but the smart money from a betting perspective is on Harry Kane. The Tottenham Hotspur striker is only three goals behind the Egyptian, which is the type of margin he is capable of making up in a single game. With Spurs likely to create more chances now that Gareth Bale is in the team, back Kane to finish as top scorer.


Harry Kane (+500)

How to Watch Premier League

Premier League Information
What 2020/21 Premier League season
Where England
When Now – 23 May 2021
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Mohamed Salah Out in Front but Harry Kane Is Not Far Behind

Liverpool have struggled this term, with a defensive injury crisis and general fatigue having already ended their hopes of a successful title defense. It is possible to argue that no member of Jurgen Klopp’s squad has performed better this season than last, but Salah perhaps comes closest to matching his 2019/20 levels. His 17 strikes at this stage of the season is more than he had managed at the equivalent stage of last term, which is testament to his continuing prowess as a goal-getter.

If you were simply making a pick for top scorer in a conversation with your friends, it would make sense to back Salah. But with relatively unappealing odds of -125 compared to the +500 DraftKings Sportsbook offer on Harry Kane, it could be worth having a wager on the Tottenham striker coming out on top.

Kane’s role has changed this season. With Jose Mourinho placing an emphasis on the counter-attack, the Tottenham talisman has regularly dropped deep and played passes in behind the opposition’s backline. Kane has 11 assists to his name this season, a tally which no other player in the division can better.

As the business end of the campaign approaches, though, there is reason to believe Kane’s focus will switch back to scoring goals. Bale looks set for a starting role here on in, and Tottenham’s No.10 will get plenty of chances to increase his tally of 14. With just three goals separating him from top spot in the scoring charts, Kane has every chance of overtaking Salah.

Editor’s pick:

Reasons to Doubt Jamie Vardy, Bruno Fernandes, and Son Heung-Min

Kane will also need to climb above Bruno Fernandes if he is to claim the prize. Manchester United’s star man is among the favorites to win the PFA Player of the Year award; it is not an exaggeration to say that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side would not be second in the table without the Portugal international. Fernandes has been superb and is just two goals behind Salah, but his reliance on penalties – a league-high seven of his 15 efforts have come from the spot – makes him a risky pick in this market.

Jamie Vardy is the holder of the Golden Boot after winning it last season, but he is unlikely to repeat that feat this time around. He has found the back of the net 12 times thus far, but the goals have dried up for the Leicester City striker of late. Indeed, Vardy has scored just once in 2021, which does not bode well for his chances of making up the gap.

Son Heung-min is another forward who has experienced a recent dip in his output. Eight of the South Korean’s 13 Premier League goals for Tottenham came in a five-game hot streak earlier in the campaign. He has scored twice this calendar year – once more than Vardy – but his figures are similarly trending in the wrong direction as far as a Golden Boot challenge is concerned.

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Patrick Bamford and Dominic Calvert-Lewin Have Excelled

Two English strikers were not considered in the running last summer, but both are in with a chance of finishing as the Premier League’s top scorer. Many doubted Patrick Bamford’s ability to score goals in the top flight given his patchy record during previous spells in the division, but the Leeds United center-forward has made the net ripple on 12 occasions. The Golden Boot will probably be out of reach – as odds of +2200 suggest – but Bamford can be proud of his efforts to date.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has 13 goals to his name and is listed at the shorter price of +1400. The Everton striker has been exceptional, and if it were not for a spell on the sidelines with an injury he might be even closer to Salah. If you fancy a punt on an outsider, Calvert-Lewin looks like the best bet.

It is interesting to examine the fate of some of those players who were considered candidates before the season got underway. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was joint-favorite at +500 alongside Kane but is now available at +3300 having scored only eight times.

Timo Werner, offered at +1000 before a ball had been kicked, has just five goals for Chelsea and is not even on the market right now. The Blues will hope Werner comes good next season, but he will not be getting anywhere near the Golden Boot in his debut campaign in the Premier League.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]