ATP Lyon & Geneva Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

ATP Lyon & Geneva

  • Auger-Aliassime price too big
  • Back Bedene’s better form
  • Harris holds underdog chance

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ATP Lyon and Geneva Picks

Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Lorenzo Musetti at -125 at bet365

Aljaz Bedene to beat Gilles Simon at -150 at William Hill

Lloyd Harris to beat Gael Monfils at +130 at William Hill

Casper Ruud to win ATP Geneva and Stefanos Tsitsipas to win ATP Lyon at +1118 at BetMGM

How to Watch ATP Lyon and Geneva

ATP Lyon and Geneva Information
What ATP Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes and ATP Geneva Open
Location Lyon, France; Geneva, Switzerland
Time Sunday, May 16 to Sunday, May 23
How to Watch Tennis Channel

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti

Player Odds
Felix Auger-Aliassime -152
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Lorenzo Musetti +123
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When Felix Auger-Aliassime announced his link-up with coach Toni Nadal, many anticipated improvements in the young Canadian’s game, especially on clay.

Results were never going to be instant but after more than a month on the European dirt, there are signs of an upward curve from the 20-year-old.

He’s beaten the likes of Diego Schwartzman and Denis Shapovalov in recent weeks, not to mention his first-round opponent in Lyon, Musetti, who is only in the draw following the withdrawal of his fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego.

Auger-Aliassime’s four defeats during the current clay swing have all been to strong opponents – Cristian Garin, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud and Federico Delbonis.


Back at a venue, he’ll have happy memories of – FAA was runner-up here in 2019 – I’m surprised to see him at the price he is for this clash.

Musetti failed to qualify in Madrid and last week struggled against Reilly Opelka’s big serve, failing to create a breakpoint. FAA’s serve is also a strong weapon and he offered few chances on it during the latter half of the pair’s recent clash in Barcelona.

If he starts better here, I can see a comfortable win for the Canadian. Either way, he looks worth backing at -152.

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Aljaz Bedene vs Gilles Simon

Player Odds
Aljaz Bedene -157
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Gilles Simon +125
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Bedene leads the head-to-head 3-1 and although none of those matches took place on clay, I see him being too strong for the ageing Simon.

Neither man has sparkled in recent weeks but Bedene’s efforts of a quarter-final run in Cagliari and a last-16 appearance in Belgrade, where he pushed Aslan Karatsev to 7-6 in the final set, look better from than Simon’s.

The Frenchman has gone 1-3 on the European clay so far and although the 2018 runner-up is back on home soil here (French players have a great record on their own patch) I doubt the tap will be that easy to turn back on.

Bedene’s best results have always come on this surface and his affinity for it makes him worthy of support at -157.

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Gael Monfils v Lloyd Harris

Player Odds
Gael Monfils -167
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Lloyd Harris +135
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This column has had some decent underdog winners so far, including two last week.

Opportunities look thinner on the ground this week but one player who may be worth siding with is Harris (+135) against a rusty Monfils.

The Frenchman played his first match since the Australian Open last week in Rome, losing in three sets to Lorenzo Sonego.

On paper, that’s not a bad effort given Sonego went on to reach the semi-finals, but at the end of the day it was another loss – that’s eight in a row now with Monfils without a win since February 2020.

Harris, who won the pair’s only previous meeting, recently beat Grigor Dimitrov in Madrid (admittedly his big serve was aided by the altitude there) while last week he produced a competitive performance against a real clay specialist in Cristian Garin.

He’ll take heart from those two Masters weeks and has the weapons to test a player still low on confidence, who can’t really remember what the winning line looks like.

Best Outright Picks

This looks like a week for the favourites.

In Geneva, I’m happy to take on the returning Roger Federer on his least-favourite surface – he’s played just two matches since January 2020.

Casper Ruud looks the man to get with. He’s a real expert on the clay and has already made the semis in Monte Carlo, Munich and Madrid this season.

With a decent track record at altitude – they play at around 400m above sea level here – Ruud looks capable of taking a step further this week.

Stefanos Tsitsipas also looks a strong shout to win in Lyon.

The Greek has gone toe to toe with both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in recent weeks, narrowly losing on both occasions, although he did win the Monte Carlo Masters title.

He’s in the much weaker bottom half of the draw and fully deserves favoritism given his form.

Doubling the pair up produces a price of +1118. I wouldn’t put anyone off.

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Andy Schooler

Expert on Tennis

Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.