ATP Miami Open Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

• Kyrgios tie-break fancy
• Musetti can repeat trick
• Sinner makes outright appeal

ATP Miami Picks

Over 0.5 tie-breaks in Nick Kyrgios v Adrian Mannarino at +162 at bet365

Lorenzo Musetti to beat Alexei Popyrin 2-0 at +165 at FanDuel

Dominik Koepfer to beat Mackenzie McDonald at +215 at PointsBet

Soonwoo Kwon to beat Brandon Nakashima at +130 at Caesars Sportsbook

Jannik Sinner to win the Miami Open at +3000 at FanDuel

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With his strong serve and relatively poor return game, Kyrgios is a tie-break regular and I think +162 about there being one in this clash is overpriced.

Mannarino, who has seen a tie-break in four of his last seven matches on outdoor hardcourts, has dealt with some of the game’s biggest servers pretty well in the past. For example, he’s forced a tie-break in five of eight meetings with John Isner, four of seven v Sam Querrey and two of four against Milos Raonic.

These two haven’t met before which should only enhance the chances of serve dominating.

Admittedly Kyrgios played rather well in Indian Wells earlier this month with only one of his four matches featuring a breaker, which probably helps explain the price.

Still, +162 looks worth a go.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Popyrin

It’s been a tough season so far for Popyrin, who is just 2-8 in 2022.

His most recent loss came against Musetti at the Phoenix Challenger last week when he won only four games and didn’t break serve.

That’s hardly a good omen for this match in conditions that should favour the Italian more – Popyrin likes it fairly quick but in Miami, the humidity slows things down, while the Laykold court isn’t the fastest either.

Musetti has now won the pair’s last three meetings, all in straight sets, and that looks the bet here at +165.

Mackenzie McDonald vs Dominik Koepfer

Koepfer was competitive against Andrey Rublev in Indian Wells recently and could land an upset blow here.

Level at 1-1 on the head-to-head, the pair’s last meeting went the way of McDonald, who won 7-6 in the third in Cincinnati in 2020.

McDonald is another who prefers a slick court but while he had that in Cincinnati, that won’t be the case this week and Koepfer could benefit at odds of +215.

The American favorite has been rather disappointing so far in 2022 and comes into this clash with a losing record (7-8). He’s also got a track record of struggling (relatively) against left-handers, holding another losing record in his career as a whole.

I just think Koepfer is too big here and worth chancing.

Soonwoo Kwon vs Brandon Nakashima

Like his compatriot McDonald, Nakashima has been something of a let-down so far this season.

He’s won back-to-back matches only once and that was right at the start of the campaign in Australia.

Usually very much at home on the North American hardcourts, Nakashima has gone 3-5 since returning to the US.

The dogged Kwon can take advantage.

The gritty Korean has been solid if unspectacular so far in 2022. He took a set off Andrey Rublev in Dubai and prior to that pushed Denis Shapovalov all the way at the Australian Open.

On current form, he’s more than capable of living with a low-on-confidence Nakashima and looks worthy of support at +130.

Round Two Upsets

The seeds all get a first-round bye at the Miami Open so which of them could be vulnerable in round two?

Karen Khachanov won just three games against Jenson Brooksby in Indian Wells and looks likely to face Tommy Paul, who is fresh from defeating Alex Zverev in the same event. The ever-improving American may well be able to claim another notable scalp.

Taylor Fritz is probably worth opposing if he takes to the court against (probably) Botic van de Zandschulp given the injury issues he had during the latter stages of Indian Wells. His first Masters title will also likely have taken a heavy mental toll.

Having tested Rafael Nadal fully last week, Nick Kyrgios could clearly cause problems for Andrey Rublev, while Denis Shapovalov won’t be relishing a scrap with Lloyd Harris, particularly if the South African is on a good serving day.

Best Outright Pick

Jannik Sinner made the final in Miami last season and he can go one better at a decent price this time around.

With Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal both absent, Daniil Medvedev is the favorite but he’s never been past the last eight of this tournament and would probably admit that conditions here don’t favour his game that well.

Sinner looks a decent alternative at +3000.

He’s won 13 of 15 matches so far this year and should be much happier with the court set-up.

Andrey Rublev, who must put Indian Wells disappointment behind him, and Matteo Berrettini are the higher-ranked seeds in his quarter, with Alex Zverev a potential semi-final foe.

That’s a draw that could have been a lot worse so Sinner gets the thumbs up.

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