ATP Miami Open Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

  • Giron can topple American compatriot
  • In-form Chardy to crush Kudla
  • Fognini vulnerable to an early exit

ATP Miami Open Picks

Marcos Giron to beat Tommy Paul at +145 at BetMGM

Jeremy Chardy to beat Denis Kudla 2-0 at +102 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Alex Zverev to win ATP Miami at +700 at BetRivers

How to Watch the ATP Miami Open

ATP Miami Open Information
What ATP Miami Open
Where Miami, Florida
When Wednesday, March 24 to Sunday, April 4
How to Watch Tennis Channel

Marcos Giron v Tommy Paul

Player Odds
Marcos Giron +138
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Tommy Paul -175
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Giron looks a decent underdog in this first-round match-up between two Americans. The older player, who has twice undergone hip surgery, has finally put injury woe behind him and earlier this year hit a career-high in the rankings at the age of 27.

Last month he beat Adrian Mannarino in Melbourne where he also took a set off Alex Zverev during the Australian Open. He also played well against another top-10 star, Andrey Rublev, in Rotterdam recently, losing 7-6 6-3.

OK, the actual results haven’t been outstanding but he’s been playing competitive tennis against some of the world’s best – and it’s also worth remembering at this point that he ended 2020 with hardcourt wins over David Goffin and Matteo Berrettini.

Should he really be +138 against a player who prefers to play on clay, one he leads 2-1 in their head-to-head record? I don’t think so and Giron looks a value call here.

Jeremy Chardy v Denis Kudla

Player Odds
Jeremy Chardy -265
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Denis Kudla +205
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Chardy has been one of the form players of 2021 and deserves more credit than he’s had for a string of impressive wins.

The Frenchman has played six tournaments this season and has made it to the last eight on four occasions. In both Antalya and Melbourne, he pushed on to make the semis.

Fabio Fognini, Ugo Humbert, David Goffin, Alex de Minaur, and Karen Khachanov are all considerable scalps to have claimed during that period and if he continues that form it’s hard to see Kudla being able to stop the Chardy juggernaut.

The world number 123 is only in the field due to the spate of withdrawals the tournament has suffered – and he is only that high due to the ranking changes brought in to deal with the COVID-19 situation. He’s played only two tour-level matches in the past 12 months with his last win in such a company being at the 2019 US Open. And it’s not as if the Challenger Tour has provided solace – Kudla is 1-3 at that level so far this season.

Chardy, who won their only previous meeting, should be much superior here, and backing the straight-sets win at odds-against looks good business.

Round Two Upsets?

All the seeds get byes into the second round in Miami and don’t yet know their opening opponent but it’s worth looking at which might be vulnerable to an early exit.

Benoit Paire, seeded 23, certainly looks to be in the firing line. He’s been complainer-in-chief regarding how COVID has affected the tour and looked disinterested during the recent South American clay swing. If, as expected, he faces rising star Lorenzo Musetti first up (Musetti must first overcome Michael Mmoh) then Paire will look ripe for the picking, pardon the pun.

Musetti made the semis in Acapulco last week, a piece of form which trumps anything Paire has managed in 2021. However, the books may well be clued up so another to consider opposing is Fabio Fognini, the 10th seed. He looks most likely to meet another emerging youngster, Seb Korda, in his first match and if that’s the case the American looks likely to be good value.

He’s already made the final of an ATP event in these humid Florida conditions this season – in Delray Beach. Korda has since won a Challenger Tour event and beaten former US Open champion Marin Cilic on the hardcourts of Acapulco.

The enigmatic Fognini did make the semis in Miami in 2017 when the event was played on Key Biscayne, but aside from that, his record here shows a string of early exits. This year could see another.

Best Outright Pick – ATP Miami

With Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer all missing from the field this year, Alex Zverev looks like the man to get with at the 2021 Miami Open.

The German was an impressive champion in Acapulco last week and has a strong track record for winning back-to-back titles – he’s managed that feat in three of the last four seasons. In short, when he’s on form, Zverev is worth following and he looks a decent price at +700 to go one better than he did in Miami in 2018 when he lost in the final to John Isner.

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Andy Schooler

Expert on Tennis

Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.