ATP Paris Masters Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks
ATP Paris Masters Predictions
John Millman vs Diego Schwartzman
Court speed has changed rather a lot at the Paris Masters over the years.
In recent years it’s played considerably faster than it did in the first half of the 2010s but evidence from qualifying on Sunday suggested we’re back to a somewhat stodgy GreenSet surface with the balls struggling to cut through the court.
That looks likely to lead to some lengthy rallies in this match with two players capable of keeping the ball in play with some good defensive skills.
However, Schwartzman does most things that bit better than Millman and I’d expect him to wear down the Australian in those rallies.
Schwartzman has had plenty of decent wins of late, reaching the final in Antwerp where it doesn’t play particularly fast. Last week he made the last eight in Vienna.
He posted straight-sets wins over Andy Murray, Brandon Nakashima, Jenson Brooksby and Fabio Fognini across those two events and looks capable of adding another here at -120.
Lloyd Harris vs Alex de Minaur
We’ve opposed De Minaur in this column to winning effect recently but now may be the time to side with the talented Australian.
Yes, he’s been on a bad run but in recent weeks he’s shown flashes of what he’s capable of, beating seed Cristian Garin and taking a set off Stefanos Tsitsipas in Indian Wells before taking down Kevin Anderson in Vienna, eventually losing to eventual champion Alex Zverev, again in a deciding set.
The Anderson victory is of relevance here. De Minaur managed to win fairly comfortably despite Anderson’s ace tally of 19.
The young Aussie actually created 10 breakpoints and gave up only one.
Harris has the big serve, a la Anderson, and while he’ll doubtless serve some aces in Paris, the conditions will blunt that weapon somewhat.
If the South African, who lost in the first round in Vienna to Casper Ruud last week, isn’t able to win cheap points, De Minaur should get some joy in the rallies from the back of the court.
He’s much more mobile and as one of the fastest players on the tour will be difficult to hit winners against.
I’ll take De Minaur as the underdog here.
Round Two Upsets?
This week, the top eight seeds at the Paris Masters all get first-round byes but which of them could find trouble in their opening match?
Carlos Alcaraz could make things tricky for Jannik Sinner if they meet – the Italian arrives off the back of a mind-numbing defeat in Vienna where he managed to lose to Frances Tiafoe from 6-3 5-2 up in the semi-final.
Alcaraz was the other semi-final loser, once again showing his rapid improvement on hardcourts.
The pressure is on Sinner too, given he’s still trying to qualify for the season-ending ATP Finals in Turin – he’ll likely need a decent run this week if he’s going to make it.
Andrey Rublev is another seed who could find himself in a spot of bother.
The Russian’s form has dipped significantly of late and his last three tournaments have brought defeats to Tommy Paul (Indian Wells), Adrian Mannarino (Moscow) and Botic van de Zandschulp (St Petersburg).
Given that disappointing sequence, an early meeting with Taylor Fritz in Paris would be far from ideal.
Fritz finished runner-up in St Petersburg, another venue that is fairly slow, to continue a good run over the last few months which included semi-final runs in Los Cabos, Atlanta and Indian Wells.
He beat Alex Zverev, Matteo Berrettini and Sinner in California and could well add another big-name scalp if he faces Rublev this week.
Best Outright Pick
Novak Djokovic returns to action in Paris but the Serb hasn’t played in seven weeks and admits himself that the lack of match play “can be dangerous”.
That’s not a concern for Alex Zverev and the German looks a much better price at +550.
He added another title to his resume on Sunday by winning in Vienna with a fabulous serving display.
His 140mph bombs will be able to do damage however slow the courts play and last year’s runner-up is in the sort of form to go one better.
Following his victories at the Olympics and in Cincinnati, Zverev has now won 25 of his last 27 matches and should take some stopping this week as looks to maintain his hot streak heading into his final event of the season, the forthcoming ATP Finals in Turin.
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How to Watch ATP Paris Masters
|ATP Paris Masters Information|
|What||ATP Rolex Paris Masters|
|Time||Monday, November 1 to Sunday, November 7|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.