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ATP Paris Masters Predictions, Best Bets, Odds

Written by: Andy Schooler
Updated October 31, 2022
12 min read
  • Mannarino can test Hurkacz
  • Wawrinka a tempting underdog
  • Tie-breaks beckon with Isner
  • Medvedev’s title challenge

ATP Paris Masters Picks

Adrian Mannarino (+4.5) to beat Hubert Hurkacz on the game handicap at -125 at bet365

Stan Wawrinka to beat Holger Rune at +175 at bet365

Over 12.5 games in first set of John Isner v Oscar Otte at +162 at bet365

Over 1.5 tie-breaks in John Isner v Oscar Otte at +333 at bet365

Lorenzo Musetti to beat Marin Cilic at +168 at Caesars Sportsbook

Daniil Medvedev to win the Paris Masters at +500 at BetMGM

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ATP Paris Masters

Hubert Hurkacz vs Adrian Mannarino

Hurkacz starts the week in Paris with the pressure on - he knows he must reach the final to stand any chance of qualifying for the season-ending ATP Finals.

He may already be thinking what might have been as he’s failed to grasp several opportunities in recent weeks on the indoor swing. While the Pole has won plenty of matches, he’s been edged out in several big ones.

His last five matches have all gone to a third set, while it’s now six on the spin in which he’s lost at least a set.

Mannarino, who beat Stan Wawrinka and David Goffin in Astana recently, is just under +100 to win a set here which is worth considering, but the way I’m going to side with the home player in this one is to back him on the game handicap in which he gets a 4.5-game start.

With his return game not up to the levels of many of his top-20 peers, Hurkacz has also been playing a lot of tie-breaks of late – he’s played at least one in five of those six matches – and if there’s another here, Mannarino has a good chance of landing this bet.

Notably, the Frenchman thrashed Hurkacz when they last met at January’s Australian Open, winning in straight sets, so he clearly has the ability to trouble his higher-ranked opponent.

Holger Rune vs Stan Wawrinka

While he’s been in fine form, reaching the final in each of his last three tournaments, Rune has played a lot of tennis in recent weeks and it could catch up with him in Paris.

Here he’s facing an opponent who has played well himself during the indoor swing and this first-round match will come just 48 hours after Rune’s final defeat to Felix Auger-Aliassime in Basel.

While conditions will likely be pretty similar, he’ll still have to adapt to the courts and balls and Wawrinka looks temping at +175.

He made the semis in Metz and last week beat Casper Ruud en route to the last eight in Basel; he will surely be out to finish 2022 with a flourish.

In contrast, Rune still has one big outing to come – he’s top seed at next week’s Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan and you wonder whether it might be worth him holding something back for that event given how packed his schedule has been this autumn.

John Isner vs Oscar Otte

He’s not played since the US Open but Isner has made the trip to Europe for this event which will end his season.

That suggests to me that here with a belief he can challenge.

The Palais Omnisports venue has certainly proved a fruitful one for the American in the past – he was runner-up in 2016 and has also been to two other semi-finals.

His big serve works well in conditions and given he’s up against another man whose first-serve points-won figures are also pretty high – they certainly were in qualifying over the weekend - the tie-break markets immediately appeal.

Isner has had a tie-break in the first set of six of his last nine matches and his focus after a long absence will surely be on that aspect of his game in the early stages.

A first-set tie-break is a +162 shot here, while I’m also interested in over 1.5 tie-breaks at +333.

Isner has played over 1.5 tie-breaks in six of his last eight Paris Masters matches and as long as he’s able to shake off the ring rust then his booming delivery can help land this.

Marin Cilic vs Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti is another man who has been in fine form this autumn and he looks to have potential as the underdog in this match.

Yes, Cilic should, in theory, enjoy the conditions on offer here but he arrives after flopping in Basel, blowing two match points in losing his opener and I wonder what the motivation is for the Croatian in what will be his final tournament of the season.

Musetti, on the other hand, has been racking up plenty of wins of late, making semi-finals in Sofia and Florance before winning outdoors in Naples.

Having make a quick switch back indoors, it was perhaps understandable he lost early in Basel last week but I suspect he’ll be keen to returning to winning ways as soon as possible, especially with those Next Gen Finals to come in his homeland next week.

He has the weapons to trouble Cilic in the rallies and looks worth chancing at +168.

Round Two Upsets?

Andrey Rublev holds a miserable 1-4 record at the Paris Masters and also comes in with the pressure on – he’s trying to nail down a berth at those ATP Finals.

An opening match against either John Isner or Oscar Otte seems likely to pose problems in conditions that are probably a bit too fast for the Russian’s liking.

It will also be interesting to see how Rafael Nadal performs in what will be his first singles match since the US Open.

The Spaniard, who has never won the Paris Masters title, opens against either Roberto Bautista Agut or Tommy Paul.

I’m not convinced Nadal has been fully fit all season. The fact he’s managed to achieve so much in spite of that is a testament to the man but he’s never enjoyed this time of year and you have to wonder if his tennis is going to be at a good enough level this week.

Best Futures Pick

Daniil Medvedev played very well in Vienna last week and looks worth backing to reclaim the title he won in 2020.

He enjoys pacy conditions, is playing some his best tennis of the year and will likely feel he has a point to prove following what has been a disappointing season by his standards.

Medvedev hasn’t won a title at this level all year but should fancy his chances of dethroning the only man above him in the betting, Novak Djokovic.

Medvedev came within a couple of points of beating the Serb in Astana recently before injury got he better of him – back the Russian at +500.

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How to Watch ATP Paris Masters

ATP Paris Masters Information
WhatATP Rolex Paris Masters
LocationParis, France
TimeMonday, October 31 to Sunday, November 6
How to WatchTennis Channel
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
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Andy Schooler

70 Articles

Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.

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