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ATP Vienna & Basel Predictions: Cilic Has Been in Good Form for Much of the Current Season

Written by: Andy Schooler
Updated October 25, 2022
18 min read
  • Miscolic can fire on home soil
  • Tie-break beckons in FAA match
  • Draper can upset Alcaraz
  • Cilic to shine in Basel

ATP Vienna & Basel Picks

Over 0.5 tie-breaks in Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marc-Andrea Huesler at +120 at BetMGM

Filip Misolic to beat Francisco Cerundolo at +220 at bet365

Thiago Monteiro (+3.5) to beat Grigor Dimitrov on the game handicap at -110 at bet365

Jack Draper to beat Carlos Alcaraz at +190 at FanDuel

Over 12.5 games in first set of Maxime Cressy v Dominic Stricker at +180 at FanDuel

Marin Cilic to win the Swiss Indoors at +1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook

ATP Vienna & Basel Predictions

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marc-Andrea Huesler

I like the chances of a tie-break in this match.

Auger-Aliassime arrives off the back of successive titles so is clearly the favorite but a quick change of venue and conditions will require him to refocus and that usually starts with ensuring serve is held with regularity.

That shouldn’t be too tough for an in-form player with a big delivery in what are usually fairly quick conditions in Basel.

I’ve mentioned Huesler here before in recent weeks – he’s been to the semis in Winston-Salem and then won the title at a big price in Sofia – and his success has been built on that serve which has produced some fine numbers.

Playing in front of a home crowd, he should be fully dialled in and capable of holding frequently.

The chances of a tie-break look higher than the odds of +120 suggest.

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Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo

We’ve got two claycourters facing off here but it’s clear that one of them will be relishing playing in Vienna much more than the other.

Austrian Misolic is the home hope, one who certainly delivered when playing on home soil earlier this year.

Handed a wildcard into the Kitzbuhel Open, he duly went all the way to the final.

Now, I’m not for one minute suggesting he’ll repeat that in this loaded tournament but his first-round draw has been kind and certainly offers him a chance of progression.

Cerundolo is very inexperienced on indoor hardcourts – the last few weeks have been his first in these conditions at tour level. He’s gone 2-3 since joining the indoor swing, one you wouldn’t expect him to enjoy too much, given his game style.

He’s only won two of his last 11 matches (all surfaces) and so I’m surprised to see him chalked up at a short price for victory here. Opposing him is the advice.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Thiago Monteiro

I backed Monteiro in this column last week and while he let us down on that occasion, I’m prepared to take another chance on the Brazilian given who he’s up against in round one in Vienna.

Dimitrov is on a really bad run. Winning only three of his last 12 matches and two of those victories came against players ranked outside the top 100.

That immediately makes Monteiro, the world number 66, look a touch of value at around +250.

His serve is under-rated and as long as it’s not too quick (it isn’t usually here) then he should be able to at least keep this competitive.

Monteiro did take in the first set against eventual champion Holger Rune last week before fading.

But Rune is in fine form, Dimitrov is not, and so I’m going to back Monteiro for the second week running on the game handicap.

He’s getting a 3.5-game start.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper

When I saw the Basel draw, this tie immediately looked a tricky one for Alcaraz.

He was pretty poor in defeat to David Goffin in Astana recently and having already qualified for the ATP Finals, you wonder what his motivation is this week, especially with the more lucrative Paris Masters event starting next Monday.

Draper has shown during this breakthrough season that he’s capable of taking the game to the top players – Andrey Rublev was certainly rattled in Madrid with the Briton’s big serve and crunching forehand both serious weapons.

He took a set off Hubert Hurkacz last week as he proved he’s fit again following the injury he picked up at the US Open and I think he can trouble the top seed here.

Maxime Cressy vs Dominic Stricker

These two produced three tie-breaks in three sets when they met on the grass of Stuttgart earlier this season and while conditions will be different in Basel, they should still be quick enough to ensure another serve-dominated battle.

Both men are renowned for their strong serves and hit aces aplenty.

Cressy has lost his serve only six times in six matches since the indoor swing began and was very much in tie-break mode last week in Stockholm when he lost 7-6 7-6 to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Stricker played a first-set tie-break in two of his four matches in Antwerp last week and that’s a nod to where we are heading here.

Over 12.5 games in set one is +180 and that looks worth backing.

Best Futures Pick

Marin Cilic looks to have a good draw in Basel where he’s capable of regaining the title.

The Croatian won here in 2016 and with 10-time champion Roger Federer now retired, he looks capable of another good run in conditions which should suit his big serve and forehand.

Also a semi-finalist at this venue in 2017, Cilic has been in good form for much of the current season and while he’s never been the most reliable of players, I’m not sure he has too much to fear in his half of the draw with Casper Ruud, Roberto Bautista Agut and Alex de Minaur the other seeds.

Up in the top half, Carlos Alcaraz looks an unconvincing favorite given what we saw from him in Astana recently – both he and Ruud have already qualified for the ATP Finals so motivation levels may well be low.

Cilic looks very backable at +1400.

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How to Watch ATP Vienna & Basel

WhatATP Erste Bank Open; ATP Swiss Indoors
LocationVienna, Austria; Basel, Switzerland
TimeMonday October 24 to Sunday October 30
How to WatchTennis Channel
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Andy Schooler

70 Articles

Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.

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