Australian Open Predictions and Best Bets: Opening Grand Slam Tournament of the Season

• Sinner can shine again

• Medvedev a worthy back-up

• Sabalenka the woman to beat

Over the years, this event has produced more surprise winners and finalists than the other Slams, probably due to the fact that it comes so early in the season - there have been only two weeks of competitive tennis so far in the 2026 campaign so not everyone is thoroughly prepared.

Madison Keys is one such name on the roll of honour. She was a shock champion 12 months ago - when highlighted on these pages at a huge price.

Keys will look to defend her crown this year but it’s the player she beat in last year’s final, Aryna Sabalenka, who starts favorite. The Belarusian won this title in 2023 and 2024.

On the men’s side, a shock looks less likely with Carlos Alcaraz and defending champion Jannik Sinner having dominated the sport in the past two years. Between them, they’ve won the last eight Grand Slam titles and will again be the ones to beat.

Australian Open Men’s Singles Picks

Most Likely Winner – Jannik Sinner (+100 with BetMGM)

Sinner will be seeking a title hat-trick in Melbourne this year having won in both 2024 and 2025. Loves the hardcourts and is able to hit his powerful groundstrokes with great consistency on this surface. Has battled great rival Carlos Alcaraz for the game’s biggest prizes over the past two years and while he has a relatively poor head-to-head record against the Spaniard, he did end 2025 with a victory over him.

The duo have won the last eight Slams between them but, in Melbourne, Alcaraz has never been beyond the quarter-finals. Sinner looks the one to beat.

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Contender – Daniil Medvedev (+3300 with BetMGM)

After splitting from long-term coach Gilles Cervara and linking up with Thomas Johansson, a former Australian Open champion himself, things have been looking up for Medvedev. The former world number one showed some encouraging signs towards the end of last season, winning in Almaty and making the semis in Shanghai. And he’s already backed that up in 2026, opening his campaign with the title in Brisbane.

He got the speedy courts he prefers up in Queensland and they also play with the same GreenSet surface and Dunlop balls here. Medvedev has finished runner-up at this event on three previous occasions and if Sinner and Alcaraz are to miss out, he looks one of the next in line.

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Outsider – Jakub Mensik (+25000 with FanDuel)

Mensik was one of several young guns who delivered upset wins at Melbourne Park 12 months ago, defeating Casper Ruud. A few weeks later, he produced a serving masterclass to sweep to the Miami Masters title. His progress stuttered somewhat after that, although injuries didn’t help. Still, the Czech is only 20 and is clearly a rising star with a bright future. As we saw in Miami, he’s a player who is hard to stop once into his stride.

He likes a bit of speed in the conditions - he was a quarter-finalist in Shanghai in 2024 and Madrid last year - and his great power seems likely to carry him deep in a major sooner or later. Drawn into what is arguably the weakest quarter (the third), maybe the sooner option is the route to take.

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Potential R1 Upset – Raphael Collignon to Beat Lorenzo Musetti (+360 with FanDuel)

For those seeking a big-priced upset in round one, Collignon is certainly worthy of consideration. Musetti may well fancy his chances of a good run after making the final of the warm-up event in Hong Kong and landing in what looks a soft-ish third quarter of the draw. But the fact is he holds a poor 3-4 record at the Australian Open - by far his worst of the Slams - and avoiding some the big guns only puts more pressure on the Italian.

Collignon really impressed during the second half of 2025, posting wins over top-20 stars Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He reached the semis in Brussels and this year has already defeated Grigor Dimitrov and Denis Shapovalov during a good week in Brisbane. Musetti will need to start strong and if he doesn’t, Collignon will be ready to swoop.

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Australian Open Women’s Singles Picks

Most Likely Winner – Aryna Sabalenka (+240 with BetMGM)

In terms of a potential champion, it’s hard to look beyond Sabalenka. She’s won here twice in the last three years and lost in the final on the other occasion. Across the two hardcourt Slams (the US Open being the other), she’s reached the last six finals, winning four.

Boasting major power in her serve and groundstrokes, Sabalenka’s game is well-suited to this surface and while she’s still prone to the odd blip, such occurrences have lessened in recent years and she’s also become better at dealing with mid-match adversity.

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Contender – Karolina Muchova (+4500 with FanDuel)

Muchova has reached the quarter-finals (or better) of all four Slams, making the semis here in 2021. The fact she’s played the event only twice since says much about a stop-start career which has been hard-hit by injuries.

However, as those major records show, she’s more than capable of living in elite company when fully fit and the Czech caught the eye in her season-opening tournament, the Brisbane International, earlier this month where she made the last four. Has great variety in her game and can disrupt even the very best players. Such court craft could carry her a long way in Melbourne.

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Outsider – Linda Noskova (+12500 with bet365)

Another Czech, Noskova returns to a tournament at which she made a big breakthrough in 2024, reaching the quarter-finals after taking down then-world number one, Iga Swiatek. Was a finalist at the big WTA event in Beijing last autumn, too. Still young and still improving, Noskova looks to have landed in a decent part of the draw - the third quarter headed by Amanda Anisimova - and could go well again at a big price.

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Potential R1 Upset – Peyton Stearns to Beat Sofia Kenin (+155 with FanDuel)

Former champion Kenin looks vulnerable here given her results of the past six months or so. She has won just seven of her last 19 matches, including both so far in 2026 in straight sets. Stearns hasn’t fared much better, to be honest, but she did post a confidence-boosting victory over former Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova in Hobart, prior to coming to Melbourne.

Her forehand is a real weapon and it could account for her fellow American here.

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How to Watch the 2026 Australian Open

• What - Australian Open tennis

• Location - Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

• Time - Sunday, January 18 to Sunday, February 1

• How to Watch - ESPN & Tennis Channel