Nitto ATP Finals: Medvedev to Dominate Russian Battle

• Ruud can keep it close

• Medvedev to dominate Russian battle

• Djokovic in three offers value

• Back Daniil for title glory

Nitto ATP Finals Picks

Casper Ruud (+3.5) to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime on the game handicap at +100 at FanDuel

Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) to beat Andrey Rublev on the set handicap at -110 at PointsBet

Novak Djokovic to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-1 at +320 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Daniil Medvedev to win the ATP Finals at +450 at Caesars Sportsbook

Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (Sunday, 1300 GMT)

Auger-Aliassime is a hot favorite to win the opening match of this year’s ATP Finals following a strong run of form which at one point during the autumn indoor swing reaped 16 successive wins.

However, only one of those matches came against a top-20 player, and while the Canadian looks like he’s ready to step up at this elite level, it’s far from guaranteed.

Notably, Ruud lost just three games when these two met just a few months ago in Montreal and was also a convincing straight-sets winner in Madrid last year.

The Norwegian went unbroken in those matches with another key takeaway being how much success he enjoyed on the Auger-Aliassime second serve, winning 87% and 82% of such points respectively.

Auger-Aliassime has clearly improved since then but Ruud looks a big price and the best bet looks to be to back him on the game handicap in which he’s getting a 3.5 start. 

Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz (Sunday, 2000 GMT)

Fritz beat Nadal in Indian Wells when the Spaniard was clearly carrying an injury. Nadal was also hurt when they met at Wimbledon a few months later but this time he managed to pull victory out of the bag.

With the 22-time Grand Slam champion having played only six matches since that latter meeting due to a variety of injury problems, this could be another contest in which physical issues could play a part.

Nadal spoke on Friday about being confident he could challenge in this company despite his injury problems but over the years we’ve often seen him turn up to this event and struggle – as he admitted to the media, indoor hardcourts are not conditions he likes.

Clearly, Fritz’s big-hitting game has been able to cause Nadal problems in the past and the American’s serve should be a weapon on the Greenset court which was full of pace last year.

However, Nadal’s issues do look to have been taken into account by the market.

Daniil Medvedev v Andrey Rublev (Monday, 1300 GMT)

Let’s keep things simple here.

These two have played on six occasions and Medvedev has won five of them in straight sets. In the other - the most recent in Cincinnati last year - he looked well on course for a similar victory prior to a collision with a cameraman at the back of the court. He went on to lose.

The former world number one has shown some good form of late, pushing Novak Djokovic hard in Astana before winning the title in Vienna with some excellent tennis.

He won this event two years ago in London and last year, when it moved to Turin, made the final, so we know he’s adept in these conditions.

In contrast, Rublev exited both those tournaments in the group stage and may well go onto the court with a troubled mindset given the weight of history against him.

A 2-0 win for Medvedev at just under even money (PointsBet) looks fair.

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Novak Djokovic (Monday, 2000 GMT)

Tournament favorite Djokovic holds a 9-2 winning record over Tsitsipas, including three victories in 2022.

Two of those have come indoors in the last few weeks but look a little deeper and you see this series has not been totally one-sided.

Four of the last six meetings have seen Tsitsipas win at least a set – including the most recent one which came a little over a week ago in Paris - and that could be an angle worth pursuing here.

In the French capital, Djokovic won their semi-final 7-6 in the third, and another 2-1 for the Serb here looks big at +320 (DraftKings Sportsbook).

Tsitsipas has been racking up plenty of wins indoors of late, reaching finals in Astana and Stockholm, and looks capable of keeping this close.

Best futures pick

Daniil Medvedev has been in the last two finals of this tournament and, at the prices, I like his chances of adding to his 2020 crown.

It’s been something of a disappointing year for the Russian but he played some of his best tennis of the season in Vienna, while prior to that in Astana he came within a couple of points of beating Djokovic before injury struck.

He should enjoy the slick conditions in Turin – when he’s serving well, he can be very tough to beat and the court and balls here should only help him achieve that aim.

Djokovic undoubtedly deserves his position as favorite but he’s not invincible, as Holger Rune showed in the Paris Masters final, and looks short enough in the outright betting.

Instead, Medvedev gets the vote at +450 with Caesars Sportsbook.

How to Watch the Nitto ATP Finals

• What: Nitto ATP Finals

• Location: Turin, Italy

• Time: Sunday, November 13 to Sunday, November 20

• How To Watch: Tennis Channel