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Tokyo Olympic Games Tennis Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

Written by: Andy Schooler
Updated October 14, 2022
12 min read
Tokyo Olympics Tennis
  • Carreno Busta looks a big price
  • Chardy can test Zverev – again

Olympics Tennis Picks

Pablo Carreno Busta to beat Daniil Medvedev at +275 at bet365

Jeremy Chardy (+4.5) to beat Alex Zverev on the game handicap at +105 at William Hill

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How to Watch Tennis at the Olympic Games

Olympic Games Tennis Information
What Olympic Games, tennis
Location Ariake Tennis Park, Tokyo, Japan
Time Saturday July 24 to Sunday August 1
How to Watch Olympic Channel

Pablo Carreno Busta v Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev has spent much of the week complaining about the hot and humid conditions he’s had to play in. “If I die, will the ITF take responsibility?” was his mid-match comment on Wednesday.

However, now organisers have caved to player demands and put back the daily start time to 1500 local.

Whether that will truly satisfy the Russian remains to be seen but it certainly puts extra pressure on him. He’s got what he wants but can he deliver?

The decision means this quarter-final, second on Court One at the Ariake Tennis Park, is due to take place later afternoon/early evening.

It will still be hot and humid – if it does get under way at that time. Thunderstorms are forecast and you can’t help but think there’s a chance organisers will have to return to the morning start time on Friday in order to get the schedule back on track.

Whenever it takes place, I don’t believe Carreno Busta should be out at xxxx for the win.

I was keen on the Spaniard from the start here, believing he could go well on courts which don’t offer the greatest pace – he’s twice reached the semi-finals of the US Open, playing in similar conditions.

Notably, he’s won the pair’s only previous meeting on outdoor hard, also played in the slowish conditions of Indian Wells. Medvedev, however, does lead 3-1 across all surfaces, the most recent clash coming on Mallorca’s grass last month when the Russian won in a deciding set.

On this surface, PCB has a greater chance of dragging Medvedev into the longer rallies in which he’ll fancy his chances. If he manages to do so, that’s when Medvedev’s frustrations about the conditions may well bubble to the surface once again.

In short, Carreno Busta looks worth a small punt at the price.

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Alex Zverev v Jeremy Chardy

Another underdog with more than a puncher’s chance in the quarter-finals is Jeremy Chardy.

Zverev has cruised through to this stage but history shows he’s regularly been tested by the Frenchman, who has also played well in Tokyo.

He took down medal hope Aslan Karatsev in round two and although he dropped a set to Liam Broady on Wednesday, he finished that match strongly and could not have hoped to have played much better than he did in the decider, which he won 6-1.

Chardy didn’t enjoy the clay or the grass but having returned to the hardcourts, he looks back to the sort of form in which he opened the season. He made two ATP semi-finals and two quarter-finals in February and March, defeating a host of top-25 players.

Bagging another here may be asking a lot but there’s certainly an angle to get with the Frenchman.

He this contest trailing 4-1 on the head-to-head but those matches have all been close – Chardy has won at least a set in two of the losses, while their most recent clash ended 7-6 7-6.

With both men serving well in Tokyo – Chardy has been above 80% first-serve points won – I’d expect another closely-fought match here.

The pair have played out four tie-breaks in their last two matches (seven sets in total) and another here would go a long way to securing a win on the game handicap for Chardy.

He gets a 4.5-game start in the market and that looks more than fair, especially when you can get odds-against with some sportsbooks.

Chardy has covered this in four of those five previous meetings and can do so again.

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Andy Schooler

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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.

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