Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Predictions: Rory Looks Ready

• This is the second event of the four-tournament Florida Swing

• Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill has hosted every edition since 1979

• Scottie Scheffler seeks a third API win in five years

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Odds

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Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Predictions

• Rory McIlroy to win at +900 with BetMGM

• Fleetwood to beat Schauffele over 72 holes at -134 with bet365

• Jason Day for Top 10 at +550 with BetMGM

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Intro

If Scottie Scheffler wins this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, measure him up for a third Green Jacket.

Why? In both 2022 and 2024, Scheffler won Arnie’s event and then went on to win The Masters a month later.

He likes the even-numbered years it seems so can the World No.1 do it again? He’s a clear favorite to do so.

This is the fourth Signature Event in the last five weeks so we’re getting very used - too much so? - to the PGA TOUR’s elite golfers teeing it up together. 

Bay Hill used to be a course where birdies and eagles flew - in line with other Arnold Palmer tracks.

But it’s been toughened up seriously in recent years. Water lurks on half the holes and fairways and greens are hard to hit.

In fact, Scheffler is the only player to have shot lower than 11-under in the last five editions.

All of those have been won by Americans which is a change as the five before that were an Englishman (Tyrrell Hatton), an Italian (Francesco Molinari), a Northern Irishman (Rory McIlroy) and two Aussies (Jason Day and Marc Leishman).

Arnie passed away in 2016 shortly after Day’s victory but his legacy lives on and it’s still a thrill for any player to slip their arms into the famous winner’s red cardigan - a nod to Palmer’s sartorial elegance. 

Last 5 Winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Course Notes

• Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par 72 measuring 7,466 yards

• Water is in play on nine of the 18 holes

• The slick Bermuda greens are set to run at 13.5 on the Stimpmeter 

• The weather forecast shows sunshine and winds at a max of 12-14mph 

• Payne Stewart (1987) holds the 72-hole record of 264

• There is a 36-hole cut: low 50 plus ties and anyone within 10 shots of the lead

Favorites to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Scottie Scheffler (+350) at BetMGM

As mentioned, Scheffler’s wins here in 2022 and 2024 were portents for Masters success. In other words, if he wins this week, watch out! As well as those two victories at Bay Hill, his other three finishes on the Florida track are 15th (2020), fourth (2023) and 11th (2025). After winning his season opener at The American Express, Scheffler has finished third, fourth and 12th, his hopes of another victory hampered by unusually poor starts each time (73, 72, 74). If he gets it right on Thursday, the World No.1 will be hard to stop.

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Rory McIlroy (+900) at BetMGM

Rory defends his PLAYERS Championship crown next week and his Masters Green Jacket next month. But he’ll want to get a win under his belt before those two huge events and this is an obvious chance. McIlroy’s last victory came at September’s Irish Open and since then he’s had two seconds and two thirds in seven worldwide starts. His strong course history - explained below - is why he could be a great bet this week.

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Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) at BetMGM

Fleetwood ended 2025 on a roll after helping Europe win the Ryder Cup and finally landing his first solo win on American soil - the prestigious TOUR Championship. After a slightly sluggish January, the hugely popular Englishman is finding his best again, placing fourth at Pebble Beach and seventh at Riviera. Fleetwood’s Bay Hill best is third in 2019. That’s one of five top 20s which includes 11th last year.

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Rory Ready to Win Again

After abandoning his experiment to use cavity-back irons, Rory McIlroy’s approach play has taken a positive spike in the last two events.

With his trusty blades back in the bag, he ranked 4th for SG: Approach at Pebble Beach when 14th and 3rd for SGA at The Genesis Invitational a fortnight ago where he finished runner-up by a single shot.

The hints have been dropped. It’s time for McIlroy to get his first ‘W’ of 2026.

The World No.2 has strong history at Bay Hill.

His 2018 victory came in a run of 4-1-6-5 between 2017 and 2020 while he was runner-up in 2023.

Nine of his 11 appearances have resulted in top 15s and he’s never been worse than 27th.

McIlroy won THE PLAYERS Championship on his last start in Florida and knows a win will give him that extra jolt of confidence for next month’s Masters defence.

Rory played a practice round at Augusta National with his father, Gerry, last week so should have a spring in his step here. 

Back him for the win at +900 with BetMGM.

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Fleetwood to Beat Schauffele

We’re 4-for-4 in 72-hole match bets this season after Nicolai edged out Rasmus in the battle of the Hojgaard twins at last week’s Cognizant Classic.

This week, I’ll back Tommy Fleetwood at -134 with bet365 to beat Xander Schauffele.

Schauffele was seventh at Riviera but Bay Hill just doesn’t seem to be his course as he’s failed to crack the top 20 in four attempts.

Fleetwood, as noted above, has five top 20s at Arnie’s place so he’s the one to be on.

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Day for Top 10

The Top 10 market has been a profitable one for us in recent times.

After winners at +500, +450 and +400 at three of the last four events, Shane Lowry added another Top 10 success at +200 with his second place at the Cognizant. 

This week, I’m backing Jason Day for Top 10 at +550 with BetMGM.

A runner-up at The American Express in January, the Aussie is a course horse at Bay Hill with a win and seven top 25s overall.

He cracked the top 10 in 2023 and 2025 and is value to do so again in this limited 72-man field.

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How to Watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026

• Tournament: Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Location: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, FL

• Date: Thursday, March 5 - Sunday, March 8

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 12:30 p.m.-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2:30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC, Peacock). And all four days on Sky Sports.