BMW Championship 2025 Predictions: Look to Ludvig

• This is the second leg of the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup Playoffs

• Caves Valley stages the event for the second time

• Scottie Scheffler ranks No.1 in the FedExCup standings

BMW Championship 2025 Odds

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BMW Championship 2025 Predictions

• Ludvig Aberg each-way (1/4 odds, 5 Places) at +2000 with bet365

• Patrick Cantlay to beat Justin Thomas in 72-hole match at -120 with bet365

• Cameron Young for Top 5 at +500 with BetMGM

BMW Championship 2025 Intro

And then there were 50…

Actually, Sepp Straka has ruined my opening line as the Austrian withdrew on Monday.

So it’s actually the top 49 in the FedExCup standings who contest this week’s BMW Championship at Cave Valley, the middle leg of the three-tournament Playoffs.

If that name rings a bell, it’s because the course was used for the 2021 edition of the event. 

That was won by Patrick Cantlay with a super-low 27-under but there’s no chance of that this week.

One obvious reason why is that par has been cut from 72 to 70 so that’s an eight-shot difference straight off the bat.

The course has also been lengthened to just over 7,600 yards and with the rough longer too, elite drivers off the golf ball should be favored. 

After this week, 20 more players will be eliminated, leaving the top 30 in the standings to battle it out for the jackpot at next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake.  

Last 5 Winners of the BMW Championship 2025

Course Notes/History

• Caves Valley Golf Club is a par 70 now measuring 7,601 yards

• The course was designed by Tom Fazio

• The Bentgrass greens have all been rebuilt

• Bryson DeChambeau shot a 60 at Caves Valley in 2021

• There could be rain on Thursday but it’s hot temperatures/little wind Friday-Sunday

Favorites to Win the BMW Championship 2025

Scottie Scheffler (+280) at bet365

Scheffler looked as if he would make it five wins in nine starts at the FedEx St. Jude Championship but he couldn’t find the necessary acceleration over the back nine and had to settle for third. That was the World No.1’s first start since his Open triumph at Royal Portrush and represented an eighth straight top eight finish. Remarkable. He played here in 2021 and finished 22nd after a slow start but it should be a good course for him and he’s the one to beat. In past editions of this event he’s finished runner-up at Olympia Fields in 2023 and third at Wilmington in 2022.

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Rory McIlroy (+650) at bet365

Rory has his eyes set on the ultimate prize at East Lake next week but will want to cut Scheffler’s lead at the top here. He won this event at Crooked Stick back in 2012 and was fourth at this course in 2021. Since then his BMW form reads 8-4-11 so he normally plays some strong golf at this time of year. He’ll hope taking last week off will freshen him up after a busy fortnight on the links when he followed second place in the Scottish Open with seventh on home soil at Royal Portrush.

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Xander Schauffele (+1800) at bet365

After a pair of top 10s at the Scottish Open and Open, Schauffele was tipped to kick on at the St. Jude Championship and perhaps gain his first win of 2025. He came up short though, finishing 22nd despite a 65-69 finish. The Californian has seven top 25s from eight starts in this event, three of those top fives.The odd one out? A 49th on this week’s course in 2021.

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Aberg Can Claim Victory

Ludvig Aberg was a brilliant winner of the Genesis Invitational in February but, surprisingly, he hasn’t had a top five since.

However, the Swede is showing some ominous signs again and his last three starts show eighth at the Scottish Open, 23rd in the Open Championship and ninth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week.

Aberg is driving the ball exceptionally well (10th for SG: Off The Tee this season) and he’s gained strokes on Approach in each of the last seven tournaments.

His power off the tee will benefit him hugely on this lengthy track (he was 3rd for Driving Distance last week) and he has the calm and composure to get the job done when in contention.    

Back him each-way at +2000 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places) with bet365.

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Cantlay to Beat Thomas

We landed another 72-hole match bet last week when Ben Griffin easily beat US Ryder Cup skipper Keegan Bradley.

This week I’ll tip Patrick Cantlay to get the better of compatriot Justin Thomas.

Cantlay won at this course three years ago and then defended the crown at Wilmington 12 months later.

Add in a second at Medinah in 2019 and six top 15s in seven BMW Championships and this is a special tournament for him. 

Thomas won that Medinah event in 2019 but hasn’t had a top 20 in the last four editions. He was 22nd here in 2021. 

Cantlay’s very latest form is also superior (he was ninth at St. Jude last week) while JT has failed to crack the top 20 in six of his last seven starts.

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Young to Bank Top 5

Cameron Young is another contender in the ‘outright’ market this week. He’s around +2500 for the win.

But if this turns into another Scottie Scheffler masterclass, another way to cash in on the New Yorker is a bet on him finishing in the Top 5 at +500 with BetMGM. 

Young’s elite driving (1st and 2nd for Off The Tee in the last two weeks) makes him a great fit and he’s one of the hottest players in golf after winning the Wyndham Championship by six a fortnight ago and following that with tied fifth at St. Jude on Sunday.

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How to Watch the BMW Championship 2025

• Tournament: BMW Championship 2025

• Location: Caves Valley Golf Club, Owings Mills, MD 

• Date: Thursday, August 14 - Sunday, August 17

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6.p.m. (NBC, Peacock), Sunday 12 p.m.-2 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2 p.m.-6.p.m. (NBC, Peacock). And all four days on Sky Sports