Italian Open Predictions, Odds & Picks

  • The Italian Open has been an ever-present on the European Tour
  • First played in 1925, it moves to a new course in 2020 – Chervo Golf Club
  • Englishman Matt Wallace and Germany’s Martin Kaymer head the betting

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Italian Open Championship Odds

Player Odds
Matt Wallace +1000
Martin Kaymer +1100
Victor Perez +1200
Bernd Wiesberger +1400
Lee Westwood +1600
Adri Arnaus +2200
Renato Paratore +2500
Matthias Schwab +2500
Jordan Smith +2500
Wilco Nienaber +2500
Adrian Otaegui +2800


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Italian Open Picks and Predictions

Matthias Schwab looks to have a win in him soon and the classy Austrian has performed strongly on Italian soil. Take him each-way (¼ 1-2-3-4-5) +2500 at bet365.

Martin Kaymer has a strong tournament record and far better current form than defending champ Bernd Wiesberger. He can win their 72-hole match (-120 bet365).

Spain’s Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano is a two-time winner of the Italian Open and can land a top 20 at +550 with DraftKings Sportsbook.


Matthias Schwab +2500 (e/w ¼ 1-2-3-4-5) at bet365

Martin Kaymer to beat Bernd Wiesberger in a 72-hole match-bet -120 at bet365

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to land a top 20 +550 at DraftKings Sportsbook

How to Watch the Italian Open

Italian Open Information
What Italian Open
Where Chervo Golf Club, San Vigilio di Pozzolengo, Brescia, Italy
When Thursday, October 22 – Sunday, October 25
How to Watch Thursday & Friday 6.30am-11.30am ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 7.00am-11.30pm (Golf Channel), Sunday 7.00am-11.30am (Golf Channel). All 4 days on Sky Sports

Italian Open Profile

The Italian Open is a staple of the European Tour. It’s been an ever-present since the Tour’s inception in 1972 while the first edition was staged way back in 1925. Former winners include Francesco Molinari, Greg Norman, Sandy Lyle, Bernhard Langer, and Tony Jacklin and there are some strong names on the show for the 77th edition. Chervo GC – a modern design opened in 2008 – sits next to tourist hotspot Lake Garda and measures in at 7,434 yards.

The course is a conventional par 72 with four par 5s at 4, 6, 11, and 18. It’s the first time the venue has been used on the European Tour although it’s worth noting that the property is just a 25-minute drive from Gardagolf Country Club which hosted two years ago. That event was won by Thorbjorn Olesen, who outlasted then defending champion and local hero, Francesco Molinari, by a shot.

Another player from continental Europe, Austria’s Bernd Wiesberger, hoisted the silverware at Olgiata in Rome last year.

After this week, the European Tour stages two back-to-back events in Cyprus before all eyes turn to The Masters at Augusta National.

Schwab Can Secure First Win

With nine golf players from mainland Europe taking victory in the last 14 editions of the Italian Open, it’s a decent strategy to follow the trend. And after Bernd Wiesberger’s win last year, I’m going for another Austrian here.

Matthias Schwab won the Italian Under 16 Championship a decade ago so has some early positive memories of this part of Europe. And he’s built some more in recent visits with a fourth place in this event last year, a top 20 in the 2018 Sicilian Open, and a T7 in the second tier’s Italian Challenge Open in 2017. The former Vanderbilt product had a crack at the PGA Tour in July and August, showing his class with a top-three finish at the Barracuda Championship.

It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing since but he did shoot bookend 68s in the European Tour’s flagship event – the BMW PGA Championship – last time and looks to be rounding into form again. He gained over 4.5 strokes on Approach at Wentworth and that’s the real test this week as the fairways should be easy to hit.

Schwab played some superb golf at this time last year when fourth in the WGC-HSBC Champions before losing a play-off at the Turkish Airlines Open and, on past feats, Italy looks a likely destination for his overdue first win.

Take the +2500 at bet365.

Kaymer To Outscore Defending Champ

Bernd Wiesberger could do no wrong at last year’s Italian Open. A closing 65 at Olgiata gave him a third win in 13 European Tour starts and made him the favorite to win the Race to Dubai.

Fast forward to the present and the Austrian isn’t finding life as easy. He’s managed just a single top 25 in 13 starts since January and the same spark isn’t there. Adding to that, he has the added pressures of being the defending champion.

In short, he looks vulnerable in a match bet when put up against one of the other leading contenders.

The man I’ll take him on with is Martin Kaymer.

The German could have won back-to-back events at the end of August/start of September when finishing third at the UK Championship and runner-up in the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama.

And after a mini-dip, including a missed cut in the US Open, he came back with T10 in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

There was plenty to like about Kaymer’s numbers in that event – his irons were dialed in and the putter was hot again – and he looks primed for another strong week.

The double major winner has a second, a fifth, an eighth, and a further two top 20s in his seven Italian Open starts, the T8 coming at nearby Gardagolf two years ago.

Kaymer looks to hold the aces here so take the -120 at bet365.

GFC To Land In Top 20

A return to the European Tour has got Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano playing some better golf again.

And the Spaniard heads to Lake Garda on a 4-for-4 streak since the start of September. That includes T14 in the Portugal Masters and T33 in last week’s Scottish Championship. The big change is in his putting and GFC ranked in the top five for SGP in both those above shootouts.

Adding further fuel to the fire is the fact that Fernandez-Castano is a two-time winner of the Italian Open. Those victories came at Castello di Tolcinasco and Royal Park i Roveri and overall he’s made six of his seven cuts in the event. This is a tournament close to his heart.

Take him to finish in the top 20 at an eye-catching +550 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Dave Tindall

Expert on Golf

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at and and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.

Email: [email protected]