The RBC Heritage Predictions: Matt Fitzpatrick Can Repeat

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated April 16, 2024
7 min read
  • The PGA Tour moves to South Carolina 

  • Masters winner Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite

  • This is a no-cut Signature Event with a field of just 69

The RBC Heritage Odds

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PlayerOdds 
Scottie Scheffler+400
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Xander Schauffele+1100
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Ludvig Aberg+1200
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Rory McIlroy+1400
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Patrick Cantlay+1600
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Tommy Fleetwood+1800
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Collin Morikawa+2000
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Matt Fitzpatrick+2200
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Max Homa+2200
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Will Zalatoris+2500
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RBC Heritage 2024 Predictions

The RBC Heritage Profile

RBC Heritage Intro

In years gone by, the RBC Heritage was a gentle wind down from the intensity of the previous week’s Masters.

Most of the top players would pack their bags and fly home, perhaps one or two making the two-and-half-hour drive from Augusta to Hilton Head Island.

But now the RBC Heritage is a Signature Event with a huge $3.6m victory purse and rather than go their separate ways, the best in the game (outside of LIV at least) are gathering once more.  

That means double Masters winner Scottie Scheffler is in town following his dominant Sunday performance at Augusta which saw him claim a second green jacket in three years.

Runner-up Ludvig Aberg lines up too, as do the three third-place finishers from last week: Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa and Collin Morikawa.

Fleetwood’s fellow Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick took glory last year and will hope to follow in the footsteps of Boo Weekly, who won this event back-to-back in 2007-2008.

Fitzpatrick, who used to come to Hilton Head on vacation with his family, ousted 2022 winner Jordan Spieth in a playoff 12 months ago after both had shot 17-under.

Webb Simpson won with 22-under in 2020 but the other six editions since 2007 have seen a winning score between 12-under and 19-under.

With its tight fairways, overhanging trees and small, contoured putting greens, Harbour Town is no easy test.

Six times in the last 14 years, including the last two, the event has gone to a playoff while there will be no cut this time in a field reduced to just 69 players.   

Last 5 Winners of the RBC Heritage

Year Champion, nationality and winning score
2023 Matt Fitzpatrick (England) -17 
2022 Jordan Spieth (United States) -13
2021 Stewart Cink (United States) -19
2020 Webb Simpson (United States) -22
2019 C.T. Pan (Chinese Taipei) -12

Course Notes

  • Harbour Town Golf Links is a par 71 and measures 7,213 yards from the tips

  • The course was designed by Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus

  • In contrast to Augusta, the Bermuda greens here are on the slow side 

  • Webb Simpson (2020) holds the 72-hole record of 262

  • David Frost (1994) and Troy Merritt (2015) hold the 18-hole record with 61

  • Winds could be testing on day one while rain is forecast on the weekend  

Favorites to Win the RBC Heritage

Scottie Scheffler (+400) at BetMGM

After very much looking like the best player in the world last week, Scheffler is the automatic red-hot favorite to follow up here. But is he a smart bet? As well as factoring in some mental let-down from his Masters win, there’s the genuine real-life possibility of him not starting or walking off (something he’s insisted he’ll do) here if heavily pregnant wife Meredith goes into labor. Scheffler was 11th on his Heritage debut last year while his current form is a peak Tiger-esque 1-2-1-1.      

Xander Schauffele (+1100) at BetMGM

After a sticky start, Schauffele got himself into the fringes of contention at The Masters but could never quite get in a blow. Still, eighth place represented his seventh top 10 of an excellent campaign even though he’s yet to find the ‘W’. He didn’t do much here on his first three visits (32-63-64) but shot 66s in rounds two and four to post fourth last year.    

Ludvig Aberg (+1200) at BetMGM

Many expected good things from the Swede on his very first start in a major and he delivered by being a brilliant runner-up on his Masters debut. That’s supposed to be a course where first-timers struggle. He’s new to this event too although his current run of seven straight top 25s which include a pair of seconds suggests he can contend everywhere.   

Back Fitzpatrick for the Win

Matt Fitzpatrick’s Masters bid rather petered out with a 75 but tied 22nd still represents a decent week’s work.

And given the record of course horses here, the 2022 US Open champion has to be a bet at +2500 to challenge seriously again.

As well as winning last year, Fitzpatrick was fourth in 2021 and cracked the top 15 in both 2018 and 2021.

In his last three visits he’s fired a 63 (2023) and a 64 (2021) so can really get it going on this short, twisting track.

Prior to The Masters, the Ryder Cup star was 10th at the Texas Open and fifth in THE PLAYERS Championship on another Pete Dye layout so his overfall form is solid.   

With five top 15s in his last seven starts in South Carolina, back Fitzpatrick to shine at one of his very favorite places on the planet. He’s +2500 at bet365 (each-way 1/4 five places).     

Fleetwood to Beat Morikawa

For this week’s match bet, I’m taking Tommy Fleetwood to beat Collin Morikawa in a 72-hole pick ‘em at -110 with bet365.

On the surface, both had similar weeks at Augusta after tying for third.

But Morikawa, who started Sunday in the final group, was far more under the gun and a closing 74 left a rather sour taste.

Fleetwood was never really in the hunt in terms of winning so arrived at his top three - his best Augusta finish - via a morale-boosting 69, the joint-fourth best score on Masters Sunday. 

In addition, the English golfer has had more good days at Harbour Town than Morikawa.

Fleetwood’s Heritage record shows three top 25s in four visits, the last two 10th in 2022 and 2023’s 15th.

Morikawa was seventh in 2021 but that’s his only top 25 from four attempts and Fleetwood has shot lower than him in the last two editions here.     

Kim to Land Top 10

Tom Kim shot the low round of the day on Masters Sunday, a sparkling 6-under 66 that hoisted him into the top 30.

Already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour at just 21, he looks a good fit for this test and can ride last week’s momentum by finishing in the Top 10 at +400 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

How to Watch the RBC Heritage

  • Tournament: RBC Heritage

  • Location: Hilton Head Island, SC

  • Date: Thursday, April 18 - Sunday, April 21

  • How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 1 p.m-3 p.m (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.

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Dave Tindall

Golf Betting Analyst

Expertise:
Golf
Betting Picks
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Nationality: British
Education: Bachelor of Arts (Psychology and Media)
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience:
25 years
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