RBC Heritage - Predictions, Picks & Odds

• A change of equipment could have done the trick for Justin Rose after a third-place last week and he can step up his chase for FedExCup points with a ‘W’ here.
• Five of the last 10 editions of this event have gone to a playoff and the odds for another look way too big, especially given the increase in field quality.
• Webb Simpson has a second-place and five other top 16s here and the course horse can take down Hideki Matsuyama in a 72-hole match bet.

PGA Tour golf made a successful return in Texas last week with Daniel Berger capturing the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.

The revised schedule now moves to South Carolina with the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, a tournament that usually takes place the week after The Masters.

Once more, no fans will be on site although the lack of spectators didn’t seem to have much of an impact at Colonial. The leaderboard was an impressive one, with plenty of the top names challenging for the title and showing that they didn’t need the extra buzz.

The field strongly resembles last week’s, with World No.1 Rory McIlroy leading the betting. Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm also head to the short but picturesque par 71 on Hilton Head Island.

That quartet had mixed fortunes last week with DeChambeau posting tied third, Thomas tied 10th, McIlroy tied 32nd after a final-round slump, and Rahm missing the cut.

RBC Heritage Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rory McIlroy shot a superb 63 in round two at Colonial last week but his ugly finish (Sunday 74) and spiral down the leaderboard means, despite being installed as favorite again, his win odds are out to +1200 from +800 at the Charles Schwab Challenge

Lack of any real course form – he’s played here just once, finishing T58 back in 2009 – also explains the more generous odds.

Bryson DeChambeau’s monster hitting made plenty of headlines last week and he ranked 1st for Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, eventually missing out on the Daniel Berger-Collin Morikawa play-off by a single stroke.

Unlike Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm (debut), he also has some impressive course form with a third (2018) and a fourth (2016).

Check out our latest Wise Kracks episode based around golf betting tips with special guest Cayce Kerr, PGA Tour caddie.

Rose in a Rush; Can Get Back to Winning Ways

Former World No.1 Justin Rose was in a rut before lockdown, a string of mediocre results leaving him in an unfamiliar company at 205th in the FedExCup Standings.

Change was needed and the Englishman did so by switching equipment, the break-in play allowing him to bed in the new clubs.

While the ultimate of a win didn’t quite materialize, Rose fired 14-under last week to finish in a tie for third spot on his return to action in the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Discussing his position in the FedExCup rankings during the event, Rose noted: “I really don’t have any points on the board, so for me, it’s important just to try to get as many points as I can get early. Probably going to play five of the first six events is the way it’s looking. I need to make my run now.” He certainly does and despite rising 82 spots to 123rd he still needs to keep his foot to the pedal.

Short game is the key to success at this week’s course, Harbour Town, and Rose impressed in that area last week, ranking 23rd in Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 6th for SG: Putting.

While he hasn’t played this event for a long time, he does have a tied seventh place to his name here and odds of +3500 look generous for a player of his ability and experience.

Great Value to Be Had in Playoff Market

Regular viewers of this tournament will know that the drama is often extended.

The tight, twisting nature of the course means no-one can overpower it and the field often becomes bunched.

The raw stats show that five of the last 10 editions of the RBC Heritage have gone to a playoff and the +400 for ‘Yes’ with DraftKings’ immediately jumps out given that the numbers (50% in last 10 years) suggest it should be even money.

As well as the historical evidence, current circumstances could offer a helping hand too..

With players coming back after such a long competitive break, everyone had ups and downs at Colonial last week and the result was a tight leaderboard. That tournament also went to extra holes while four players were just one shot shy of the playoff number.

A strong field here again negates the prospect of any single player separating themselves from the field so that playoff price really does appeal.

Simpson Can Outduel Matsuyama

Most of the 72-hole match bets look cleverly compiled but I do like Webb Simpson to take down Hideki Matsuyama.

This one comes down to course form.

Simpson is an experienced hand at Harbour Town. He’s made his last nine cuts at the South Carolina track, finishing runner-up in 2013 and reeling off five other top 16 finishes. That includes a run of 16-5-11 the last three years.

By contrast, Matsuyama has played it just once, firing 71-79 to miss the cut in 2014.

True, Simpson only played 36 holes at Colonial last week but a second-round 69 gave him some momentum and Matsuyama, despite playing well before lockdown, is coming in cold.

It’s a pick ‘em but Simpson at -110 is the call at bet365.

Our Pick

In the outright market, take back-to-form Justin Rose to hoist the trophy at +3500 with DraftKings. Backing a Playoff at +400 could be the bet of the week given that five of the last 10 editions have gone to extra holes. In 72-hole match betting, course horse Webb Simpson (-110) can beat Hideki Matsuyama.