Mallorca Golf Open Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated October 14, 2022
6 min read
  • The tournament is the final leg of a three-week Spanish swing
  • Golf Santa Ponsa, a short coastal track, plays host
  • Belgian Thomas Pieters is favorite in an open-looking betting contest  

Mallorca Golf Open Odds

The odds for this tournament are provided by bet365. Click on the odds below to head to bet365 and place a bet.

Player Odds
Thomas Pieters +1600
Laurie Canter +1800
Andrew Johnston +2000
John Catlin +2000
Ryan Fox +2200
Adri Arnaus +2200
Martin Kaymer +2500
Jordan Smith +2500
Alexander Bjork +2800
Adrian Otaegui +3000
Pablo Larrazabal +3000

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Mallorca Golf Open

Mallorca Golf Open Picks

Past and present European Ryder Cup stars are dominating on the European Tour right now and Thomas Pieters can add to the trend. Back him at +1600 for the win.

Ryan Fox showed his mettle with a top four at Valderrama last week and has a far better record by the coast then Jordan Smith. Back the Kiwi over 72 holes at -125 with bet365.

Pablo Larrazabal is a hugely consistent performer on home Spanish soil. After back-to-back top 20s, he can make the top 10 at +320 with bet365.

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Mallorca Golf Open Predictions

The European Tour wraps up its three-week Spanish swing with a trip to the Balearic Islands. The Mallorca Golf Open is the first event played on the island since 2011 and fills the slot vacated by the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco. The tournament takes place at Santa Ponsa, a Folco Nardi design that has been a European Tour host six times previously.

The great Seve Ballesteros won the first of those in 1988 and added another title in 1992. The most recent took place in 1998 and there was another Spanish winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez. The official website gives what will hopefully prove a helpful hint, saying the course has “wide fairways” and that “long hitters will enjoy themselves.”

That said, the course has hardly been a pushover. Although Seve took his two titles with 16-under and 11-under, three of the other four events there were won with single digits under par.

As is always the case with coastal tracks, wind controls score to a large extent so it’s important to check the weather forecast this week.

The latest info suggests pretty modest winds for three of the four days but it could pick up during Friday’s second round.

Jon Rahm dominated the betting at the Open de Espana and the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucia Masters but he’s not here this time. Instead, big-hitting Belgian Thomas Pieters is the odds leader but he’s +1600 so the betting certainly has a wide-open look about it.

Pieters For the Win

Something rather strange has happened since Europe suffered a record defeat in the Ryder Cup. Instead of triumphant American players picking up individual wins, it’s members of Padraig Harrington’s losing side who have been lifting trophies.

Last week, Matt Fitzpatrick hoisted the silverware in Valderrama and later that day Rory McIlroy beat an all-star cast to land the CJ CUP in Las Vegas.

What’s more, past European Ryder Cup players are also coming to the fore, as if to say “look, don’t forget we can play golf too”.

The three European Tour events since the Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits have been won by Danny Willett, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Fitzpatrick. All are current or past European Ryder Cuppers.

So, can the streak continue? Martin Kaymer and Victor Dubuisson could keep it going but the one I’m going to back to maintain that sequence is Thomas Pieters.

The star of Hazeltine – he was the 2016 Ryder Cup’s top scorer – missed the cut in Valderrama last week but that can happen to anyone on that course. Ask Jon Rahm, who crashed out with rounds of 78-74. But last month Pieters had back-to-back ninth places in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth and the Dutch Open so the form is there.

Pieters has four European Tour titles to his name and all have come from August onwards.

He’s one of the class acts of this field so let’s take him for the win at +1600.

Fox Can Outscore Smith

Last week’s 72-hole match was void after Callum Hill was a non-runner.

So let’s try again and go with Ryan Fox to get the better of Jordan Smith. If using the very basic criteria of someone who plays well by the sea and thumps it a mile, Fox’s name lights up.

The Kiwi has had some excellent results in a variety of coastal locations such as the Irish and Scottish Opens and will arrive in Mallorca in fine form.

Fox made the top 25 in the Open de Espana and then did most things well when battling away to finish fourth at Valderrama last week.

Smith has been solid too with tied 20th and tied 15th in the two Spanish events but he doesn’t have that same pedigree in these types of conditions.

Two of his last three missed cuts have come in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the Scottish Open and he seems to do his best work inland.

Their contrasting records by the sea is the deciding factor here so I’ll back Fox at -125 with bet365 to get the better of Smith over 72 holes.

Larrazabal Can Crack the Top 10

Given the record of Spaniards at this venue, I want a local onboard.

Adri Arnaus is a possibility in both the win and side markets but the better value lies with Pablo Larrazabal.

The five-time European Tour winner has dropped down the world rankings in the last couple of seasons but he’s found his form again in recent times.

The 38-year-old finished tied 20th in both the Open de Espana and Andalucia Masters – the last two events – and a few starts earlier he posted tied eighth in the Italian Open. Widening the lens on his form in Spain, Larrazabal has finished tied 26th or better in seven of his last 10 starts on home turf so he rarely has a bad tournament in front of his own fans.

Top 20 is the safer play but he looks on the verge of a breakout week so let’s try the juicier odds available on the next rung-up.

Head to bet365 where Larrazabal is +320 for a top 10.

How to Watch Mallorca Golf Open

Mallorca Golf Open Information
Tournament Mallorca Golf Open
Location Golf Santa Ponsa, Balearic Islands, Spain
Time Thursday October 21 – Sunday October 24
How to Watch Thursday 7.30am-12.30pm (Golf Channel), Friday 7.30am-12.30pm (Golf Channel), Saturday 7.30am-12pm (Golf Channel), Sunday 7am-11.30am (Golf Channel). All 4 days on Sky Sports

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Dave Tindall

Golf Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at and and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Nationality: British
Education: Bachelor of Arts (Psychology and Media)
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
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