The Memorial Tournament 2026 Predictions: Fleetwood to Flourish at Jack’s Place

Jack Nicklaus named Muirfield Village after his favorite course.

Muirfield, in Scotland, was where the Golden Bear won the first of his three Open Championships. He also returned there in 1972 to finish runner-up.

Muirfield Village is likely to feature highly on Scottie Scheffler’s list of favorite venues.

For the last two years, tournament host Nicklaus has been waiting behind the 18th green to give Scheffler a warm handshake and congratulatory pat.

Scheffler edged out Collin Morikawa to win by a shot in 2024 and was four clear of runner-up Ben Griffin when hoisting the silverware in 2025.

Muirfield Village is a 7,500+ yard par 72 with fast bentgrass greens that are on the small side.

It rewards elite tee-to-green play and winners usually need to excel in all elements of that metric - off the tee, approach play and around the green.

Americans have won four of the last five but Norway’s Viktor Hovland took the title in 2023 and Spain’s Jon Rahm in 2020.

In truth, Rahm should also have won the 2021 edition but, six shots clear when walking off after round three, he was forced to withdraw after testing positive for Covid.

• Muirfield Village hosts again, as it has done every year since 1976

• This is another Signature Series event, with a limited field of 72  

• Scottie Scheffler seeks a three-peat

The Memorial Tournament 2026 Odds

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The Memorial Tournament 2026 Predictions

• Tommy Fleetwood each-way at +2500 (1/5, 1-2-3-4-5-6) with BetMGM

• Aaron Rai to beat Gary Woodland over 72 holes at -125 with Caesars Sportsbook

• Jordan Spieth for Top 20 at +140 with Caesars Sportsbook

Last 5 Winners of the Memorial Tournament

Course Notes

• The tournament was first played in 1976

• Muirfield Village is a par 72 and measures 7,569 yards from the tips

• It was designed by Jack Nicklaus and is his most famous creation

• Tee to green prowess is more important than wielding a hot putter

• Tom Lehman (1994) holds the 72-hole record of 268 

• John Huston has the 18-hole record of 61 (1996)  

Favorites to Win the Memorial Tournament 2026

Scottie Scheffler (+300) at BetMGM

After going winless - that’s 10 tournaments - since starting his year off with victory in January’s American Express, surely Scottie Scheffler gets it done here. Doesn’t he? Scheffler should already have a three-peat to be honest as before his wins in 2024 and 2025 a stone-cold putter left him third after he’d totally outplayed everyone from tee to green in 2023. With course form of 1-1-3-3 along with three second places and a third in his last five starts, it would be the most obvious thing in the world for the World No.1 to match Tiger Woods’ feat of three straight wins (1999-2001) at Muirfield Village.

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Rory McIlroy (+1000) at BetMGM

Rory has played just twice since winning his second straight Masters Green Jacket, posting 19th at the Truist and seventh in the PGA Championship at Aronimink. He didn’t tee it up here last year but in his 13 visits to Muirfield Village the Northern Irishman has racked up five top 10s (best of fourth) and a further four top 15s. That’s decent but McIlroy has a wish-list of things he still wants to achieve and winning Jack’s event for the first time is surely one of them.

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Ludvig Aberg (+1200) at BetMGM

Aberg’s high-class consistency has to be admired. In his last eight events he’s pieced together five top fives, eighth, 17th and 21st. But for those backing him to win, Aberg has been frustrating, often getting himself into great positions before hitting loose shots under pressure. He’s played Memorial just twice and shown plenty of promise with fifth in 2024 and 16th last year when he closed with a 66. Could this be the week?

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Fleetwood’s Turn at Muirfield Village  

While it’s tempting to play Scheffler at short odds, there’s also logic in looking further down the board given how first prizes in men’s golf are being shared around right now.

After 10 different winners of the last 10 events, Tommy Fleetwood is a good play at +2500 with BetMGM to take the streak to 11.

The Englishman was fifth at the Truist Championship just two starts ago and after posting five top 10s this season, he looks ready to raise his game to the levels which helped him land last year’s TOUR Championship.

Fleetwood has done the groundwork at Muirfield Village with finishes of 16th and 20th in his last two visits and he has the ideal profile for this test.

He’s a straight hitter (9th Driving Accuracy), and has the required short-game magic (6th Around The Green).

With four of the last five winners at Memorial ranking 1st for Greens In Regulation, it’s another big plus that Fleetwood is 9th in that category.

Backing Fleetwood ‘without Scheffler’ at +2000 is another option. 

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Rai to Beat Woodland

Aaron Rai must still be on a high after his brilliant win in the PGA Championship.

But he’s now had a couple of weeks to drink it in and hopefully the Englishman can continue his hot form from May which started with a fifth at Myrtle Beach before his glory week at Aronimink.

Let’s back him at -125 with Caesars Sportsbook to get the better of Gary Woodland in a 72-hole match.

Short game magic and finding fairways are likely to be rewarded this week and that could spell trouble for Woodland, who ranks 104th For Driving Accuracy and 154th (last in the field) for Around The Green.

Rai, who was 26th on his Muirfield Village debut, is 3rd for Driving Accuracy and also above Tour average Around The Green.

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Spieth for Top 20

Perhaps the most solid bet of the week is the +140 for Jordan Spieth to finish in the top 20.

The Texan has hit the top 20 in seven of his last 11 starts, including three of the last four.

And at Muirfield Village, Spieth has recorded five top 20s in his last six visits. That includes seventh last year and fifth in 2023.  

The +140 at Caesars Sportsbook is a great number in this 72-man field.

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How to Watch the Memorial Tournament

• Tournament: The Memorial Tournament

• Location: Muirfield Village, Dublin, OH

• Date: Thursday, June 4 - Sunday, June 7

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 12.30 p.m.-2.30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2.30 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.