The Mexico Open at Vidanta: Woodland for the ‘W’

• Masters champ Rahm is a hot favorite to win again
• Tony Finau is the only other top 100 player on show
• Vidanta Vallarta is a lengthy 7,456-yard par 71

Mexico Open at Vidanta Odds

Odds taken from BetMGMG

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Mexico Open at Vidanta Picks and Predictions

• Gary Woodland each way in the outright at +2200 with bet365 (1/4 1-2-3-4-5)

• Brandon Wu to bt Robby Shelton over 72 holes at -110 DraftKings Sportsbook

• Lanto Griffin for a Top 20 at +330 with DraftKings Sportsbook

The Mexico Open at Vidanta struggles to attract the big names but they do have an ace up their sleeve this week: Masters champion Jon Rahm.

The Spaniard chose to support this event last year and was rewarded by scoring a one-shot victory over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Brandon Wu.

Finau returns for another crack but that’s it from the world’s top 100. The rest are taking a breather ahead of May’s Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship at Oak Hill.

Punters only have one year of course form to rely on as this event only gained PGA Tour status in 2022.

The clear takeaway from last year is that big hitters dominate and that should be the case once more. 

Course Report

Vidanta Vallarta was designed by Greg Norman and sits close to the coast.

It’s a new venue that opened eight years ago and, like many courses near the seaside, has Paspalum grass on the fairways and greens.

It measures in at a lengthy 7,456 yards, is flat, and has very little rough. The fairways are certainly on the generous side.

The Paspalum greens are undulating while over 100 bunkers are spread around the course.

As for the weather, it looks calm although a familiar pattern here is for it to get a little windier in the afternoon.

The forecast suggests nothing much more than 10mph at worst though.  

The Favorites

How Do You Stop Jon Rahm?

As well as capturing the Masters green jacket earlier this month, he racked up a hat-trick of titles on the West Coast Swing.

Add in two DP World Tour victories at the back end of 2022 and Rahm has a Tiger Woods-esque six wins from his last 14 strokeplay starts.

On those numbers, the +250 is a justifiable bet, especially as he’s already won on this track.

Finau got better each day here last year.

The World No. 16 shot 71, 68, 66, 63 to just miss the chance of taking Rahm to a playoff.

Finau’s latest form is consistent but lacks spark.

Since the calendar flipped he’s not finished worse than 31st but his best is seventh and he hasn’t delivered a top 10 in the last seven events.

Third favorite Wyndham Clark does have lots of recent form thanks to three top sixes in his latest four outings, the last of those in the Zurich Classic pairs event last week.

He could only manage tied 67th on his course debut here in 2022. 

Woodland for the Win

With big hitters looking set to dominate, Gary Woodland comes firmly into the crosshairs. 

And his price of +2200 with bet365 definitely appeals.

Okay, Rahm may be hard to stop but Woodland looks to be one of the few who can do it.

Hopefully he takes the win but backing the 2019 US Open champion each way with bet365 is a smart play.

A top-five finish will bank a profit and Woodland’s latest form points to a big week.

Tied 14th at Augusta National is good but has even more relevance given that’s his best Masters finish ever.

Five of his other 10 Masters appearances have resulted in missed cuts.

Woodland was also ninth in another world-class field at Riviera back in February.

His ball-striking looks strong so the only missing piece of the puzzle is his putting.

But there’s good news there. Woodland has ranked in the top 20 for Strokes Gained: Putting in his last two starts so looks to have found something.     

Wu to Outscore Shelton

For this week’s 72-hole match bet I’ll take Brandon Wu to beat Robbie Shelton.

Wu, as mentioned above, was runner-up here 12 months ago after matching Finau’s flying finish of 66-63.

That added to his fine record when by or close to the sea.

Wu was runner-up at Pebble Beach in January and since then he’s had a pair of top 20s on the Florida Swing including tied 19th at TPC Sawgrass.

Last week he finished tied 26th alongside Joseph Bramlett in the Zurich Classic.

Shelton (with Lee Hodges) missed the cut in that event and he’s now failed to cash in three of his last four starts.

It’s his course debut so, unlike Wu, he’s not proven on this terrain. Shelton has also missed his last two cuts in the other Mexico event: the World Wide Technology Championship. 

Wu gets the vote and is -110 with DraftKings Sportsbook to win his 72-hole match bet pick ‘em.

Griffin to Land Top 20

Lanto Griffin has had his injury problems but I like him for a top 20 this week.

The Californian finished tied 15th in this event last year and he returns after logging top 20s in two of his last three tournaments.

The first was tied 16th in a Korn Ferry event while the second (tied 15th) came at the Texas Open on another course designed by Greg Norman.

That was earlier this month so hopefully everything looks set for another good show here. 

He’s +330 for the Top 20 with bet365.     

How to Watch the Mexico Open at Vidanta

• Tournament: Mexico Open at Vidanta

• Location: Vidanta Vallarta, Vallarta, Mexico

• Date: THURSDAY APR. 27 - SUNDAY APR. 30

• How to watch: THURSDAY-FRIDAY 3.30 p.m.-6.30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). SATURDAY-SUNDAY 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.