The odds for this tournament are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to Caesars Sportsbook and place a bet.
|Min Woo Lee||+2800
|Rafa Cabrera Bello||+3500
Adri Arnaus is a course horse and usually thrives when back on home soil. Back the Spaniard for the win at +1600 with Caesars Sportsbook.
Thriston Lawrence is a two-time winner this season and can beat out-of-form compatriot Wilco Nienaber in a 72-hole match bet at -125 with bet365.
Santiago Tarrio is another Spaniard with strong form when pegging it up in home-based events. Back him for a top 20 at +300 with BetMGM.
With the UK weather starting to turn chilly, the DP World Tour heads back to southern Europe to seek out some sun.
The next four weeks are spent in Spain and Portugal, starting with this week’s Open de Espana at Club de Campo in Madrid.
It’s the start of a crucial run to home as players battle to claim a place in the top 50 who’ll contend the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.
The Black Course at Club de Campo in Madrid – a 7,112-yard par 71 – plays host to the Open de Espana for the 11th time.
It’s like many classic courses in Spain: a short, tree-lined, parkland track with narrow fairways and small but undulating greens.
A home player, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, took the title last year when shooting 19-under while the current king of Spanish golf, Jon Rahm, fired 22-under to triumph in 2019.
Course form before 2021 and 2019 is a little old, with Charl Schwartzel the previous winner here (with 19-under) back in 2008.
Rahm won by five strokes in 2019, ranking 1st for Driving Distance and 1st for Putting Average.
Scrambling has been a good pointer, as has Greens In Regulation when comparing past editions.
It also seems that course form counts for plenty.
Last year’s winner Cabrera-Bello had finished second to Rahm in 2019 while 2021 runner-up Adri Arnaus had posted fourth two years earlier.
At +230, Rahm is the shortest-priced favorite we’ve seen on the DP World Tour this season. Is it simply the case that he turns up and bullies the field into submission once more?
The weather certainly won’t blow him off course as the forecast for all four days is sunshine (around 70 degrees) and light winds.
True, Rahm cruised to victory in 2019 but last year he had to settle for tied 17th despite opening with a 63.
It shows that nothing is certain and the price of +230 isn’t one to get excited about, even if he did finish runner-up in the BMW Championship at Wentworth on his last start.
Instead, I’m going to back Rahm’s compatriot Adri Arnaus at +1600.
As mentioned, the Spaniard has a fourth and a second in his two appearances at Club de Campo, his round scores across those events 65, 66, 72, 68, 67, 64, 67, 67.
A winner of the Catalunya Championship in May on his last start on home soil, Arnaus was ninth in the European Masters at the end of August.
He had a wobble in September but then bounced back to form with tied 22nd at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last time.
Arnaus had three good days there, opening with a 67 and posting laps of 66 and 68 on the weekend.
But, like many, he was blown off course in the fierce winds on Friday, carding an 80.
With no such gusts this week, he can do what he does best and put on another big display in front of his home fans.
A flick through Arnaus’s results and he has a win, two seconds, two fourths, and an eighth in his last 10 starts in Spain.
We landed last week’s match bet in style as pick Alex Noren finished runner-up and rival Branden Grace missed the cut.
This week, I’m backing South African Thriston Lawrence to take down his fellow South African Wilco Nienaber.
Lawrence is having a stellar campaign, highlighted by two victories.
The first was somewhat fortunate as he needed to play just 36 holes due to bad weather at the Joburg Open. To be fair, he was four clear at that point.
The second came at August’s European Masters at Crans after edging out Matt Wallace in a play-off.
He’s been less consistent in recent times but did log a top 20 at the Open de France two starts ago.
This will be his first start at Club de Campo but there’s plenty of good correlating form on the courses where he’s won and this one.
Nienaber was sixth here last year so deserves respect but he’s gone off the boil in the last month with a trio of missed cuts in Denmark, France, and Scotland.
Back Lawrence at –125 with BetMGM to win their 72-hole match.
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|Tournament||Open de Espana|
|Location||Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid, Spain|
|Time||Thursday, October 06 – Sunday, October 09|
|How to Watch||Thursday & Friday 8am-1pm ET (Golf Channel), Saturday & Sunday 7.30am-12pm (Golf Channel). All 4 days on Sky Sports|
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Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Email: [email protected]More info on Dave Tindall
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