Open de Espana Predictions, Betting Odds, Top Picks

  • The tournament returns to Club de Campo, the host venue in 2019
  • This is the first event of a three-week stint for the European Tour in Spain
  • Jon Rahm is seeking a third straight win in the Open de Espana

Open de Espana Odds

The odds for this tournament are provided by bet365. Click on the odds below to head to bet365 and place a bet.

Player Odds
Jon Rahm +225
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Bernd Wiesberger +2000
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Guido Migliozzi +3300
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Masahiro Kawamura +4000
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Victor Perez +4000
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Adri Arnaus +4000
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Calum Hill +4000
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Nicolai Hojgaard +5000
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Justin Harding +5500
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Sean Crocker +5500
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Matthias Schmid +5500
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Open de Espana Picks

  • World No.1 and local hero Jon Rahm looks in a different league to his rivals here and can win his third straight Open de Espana at +225 with bet365.
  • Justin Harding boasts a strong mix of course and current form and can get the better of John Catlin over 72 holes. Take the South African at -120 with bet365.
  • Jeff Winther was fourth at this venue in 2019 and made the top 15 last week. Back the Dane for a top 20 finish at +320 with bet365.

Our Picks

Jon Rahm for the win at +225 with bet365
Justin Harding to outscore John Catlin in a 72-hole match at -120 with bet365
Jeff Winther to finish in the top 20 at +320 with bet365

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Open de Espana Predictions

After the iconic but chilly setting of St Andrews, the European Tour seeks out some October sun by heading off for a three-week stint in sunny Spain.

We start with the Open de Espana at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid before heading to the 1997 Ryder Cup Valderrama for the Andalucia Masters.

The trilogy is wrapped up at the Mallorca Golf Open at Golf Santa Ponsa.

The good news for the organizers this week is that they can play their ace card.

Yep, Jon Rahm is in the field and the World No.1 isn’t just turning up for the appearance money and to wave to the home fans.

Rahm has won the last two editions (2018 and 2019) of this tournament (2020 was canceled due to the pandemic) so this will be his hat-trick bid.

This week’s venue, Club de Campo, is tree-lined and sits 2,500 feet above sea level.

It’s set on hilly terrain and has plenty of bunkering around the undulating greens.

Rahm fired 22-under when winning in 2019 while Charl Schwartzel shot 19-under there on the previous occasion it was used in 2008.

In other words, the birdie count needs to be high on the short and scorable 7,112-yard par 71.

Rahm absolutely dominates the betting but that’s hardly a surprise given that only a handful of his rivals this week occupy a spot in the world’s top 100.

Rahm just impossible to ignore

It could be a case of man against boys this week and I’m going to keep it simple and go with what the head says: back Jon Rahm at all costs.

Yes, +225 is incredibly short for a player to win a golf tournament but it could look like a steal by Sunday afternoon.

The logic of backing the World No.1 in his home Open seems straightforward but perhaps a little basic.

However, the idea that deeper thought is required soon goes out of the window when delving into Rahm’s record.

Pure and simple, he’s a street ahead of this field and excels whenever he returns to European shores, especially his Spanish home.

Rahm has won the last two editions of this event by a combined seven shots, shooting a combined 42-under in the process.

The most recent of those, his five-shot win with 22-under in 2019, came on this very course when he hoisted up rounds of 66-67-63-66.

After being Europe’s standout star in the Ryder Cup, I expect him to bring that impressive form back to Spain and pick up an easy win.

Take out majors/WGCs and his strike-rate in standard European Tour events is six wins from 16 starts and that becomes two in four when adding in the filter of tournaments played in Spain.

Remarkably, his three-year stroke average on the European Tour is 2.28 shots better than anyone else in the field.

Oh, that’s per round by the way. Over the four days of a tournament, that works out at 9.12 strokes.

Given such superiority, he’s a no-brainer.

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Harding can outscore Catlin

We landed another 72-hole match bet winner in Scotland last week when Martin Kaymer got the better of Laurie Canter.

This week I’ll play South Africa’s Justin Harding to beat American John Catlin.

Harding has pegged it up five times in Spain and finished in the top 15 in four of them.

The first was a tied seventh at this venue in 2019 and that made sense given how well he plays at altitude (remember, we’re 2,500 feet above sea level).

Harding showed that by winning in the thin mountain air of Kenya earlier this year and he’s had a series of top 10s and top 20s since, the most recent a tied ninth in the Dutch Open just two starts ago.

Catlin has some happy memories of Spain too and he’ll defend at Valderrama next week.

But his one start on this course resulted in a modest tied 63rd and he’s managed just a single top 20 in his last 14 worldwide starts since May.

Harding seems to hold the aces so back him at -120 with bet365.

Winther can crack the top 20

It’s something of a gear change to go from Scotland to Spain but Jeff Winther has the skills to cope.

The Dane has been in mixed form but found his mojo again with a tied 14th in last week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

That will give him an added confidence boost for a course where he’s excelled previously.

Winther fired 70-69-69-63 to finish fourth at Club de Campo in 2019 and that’s not his only good finish in Spain.

He was fifth in the second tier’s Challenge de Espana in 2017 and shot 62-64 on the weekend to take third in the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open in April earlier this year.

Back the 33-year-old to finish in the top 20 which is +320 at bet365.

Open de Espana

Open de Espana
What Open de Espana
Location Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Time Thursday, October 07 – Sunday, October 10
How to Watch Thursday 8 am-1 pm (Golf Channel), Friday 8 am-11.30 am (Golf Channel), Saturday 7.30 am-11.30 am (Golf Channel), Sunday 7 am-11.30 am (Golf Channel). All 4 days on Sky Sports

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Dave Tindall

Expert on Golf

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.



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