Tour Championship 2025 Predictions: Scottie Can’t Be Stopped

• This is the climax of the three-tournament FedExCup Playoffs

• Only the top 30 on the standings take part

• In a change to past editions, everyone starts on the same score

Tour Championship 2025 Odds

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Tour Championship 2025 Picks and Predictions

•  Scottie Scheffler to win at +162 with bet365

• Sepp Straka to beat Corey Conners in 72-hole match at -115 with bet365

• Cameron Young for Top 5 at +400 with BetMGM

TOUR Championship 2025 Intro

Trying to find the right format for the FedExCup Playoffs has been a headache for the PGA TOUR.

Since 2019 we’d seen a Starting Strokes system at the concluding Tour Championship.

That meant the FedExCup points leader started the event at -10, two shots better off than his nearest rival and up to 10 better than those ranked 26th-30th in the 30-man field.

That instantly wiped out a large chunk of the chasing pack. It killed much of the drama. 

This time, the handicap system has been scrapped, thus making this a regular 72-hole strokeplay event. Shoot the lowest score after four rounds and you’re the FedExCup champion.

But even that has its flaws.

Scottie Scheffler has been the best golfer this year by far but unless he wins this week, that won’t be reflected.

East Lake in Atlanta hosts this money-spinning season-ender once more and reverts to a par 70 this time. 

The 19th FedExCup champion will be crowned on Sunday evening and he’ll pocket a cool $10m bonus as well as earning a five-year PGA TOUR exemption.

Last 5 Winners of the TOUR Championship

Course Notes/History

• East Lake is a par 70 measuring 7,440 yards from the tips

• Tom Bendelow designed the course that Donald Ross and Rees Jones have updated 

• Tiger Woods holds the 72-hole record of 257 (2007)

• Zach Johnson shot the lowest ever 18-hole score, a 60 (2007)

• The greens are Bermuda and should run at 13.5 on the Stimp

• The weather forecast suggests some rain and peak temperatures of 90 degrees

Favorites to Win the TOUR Championship 2025

Scottie Scheffler (+162) at bet365

Scheffler came from four behind after 54 holes to land last week’s BMW Championship with a closing 67. That means he’s won 50% of his last 10 starts and, remarkably, the World No.1 hasn’t finished outside the top eight in any event since the end of March. Scheffler shot 30-under here (20-under of his own and 10-under via his start) to win the FedExCup by four strokes last year. That was the third best 72-hole score and, if looking for reasons why he could get pipped here, his prior course form was a little mixed although it did include second in 2020. Quite simply, his extremely short odds are hard to argue with. 

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Rory McIlroy (+700) at bet365

Rory has won the FedExCup three times. And if you like pattern spotting, having triumphed in 2016, 2019 and 2022 he’s due again this year! While nothing will top his Masters win, McIlroy has also triumphed at Pebble Beach and Sawgrass this season so his record in elite events is hugely impressive. Last week’s 12th at the BMW Championship could be viewed as a little underwhelming or a marker that he’s ready to go big again.

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Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) at bet365

While Fleetwood’s heartbreaking quest for a first PGA Tour win remains the story whenever he’s discussed, let’s just take a moment to reflect that he’s been one of the stars of the Playoffs so far with third at St. Jude and fourth at the BMW Championship. He’s doing so many things right and looks incredibly close. The Englishman’s East Lake record is solid but lacks a big finish (best of ninth in 2023). 

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Scheffler to Sign off in Style  

Sometimes we have to bow to the inevitable and it’s very hard to see Scottie Scheffler not winning this week.

As well as playing the best golf, he’ll be absolutely determined to make sure that 2025 is remembered as his year.

And because of the new scoring system, he can only do that with a win here. 

With five wins in 10 starts, taking Scheffler at these odds is justified and it’s worth noting that it’s been common to see back-to-back winners in the FedExCup Playoffs. In fact, it’s happened nine times in the last 12 years.

Scheffler doesn’t excite like Tiger Woods did but his numbers are comparable and that’s a remarkable thing to say.   

Back him for the win at +162 with bet365.

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Straka to Beat Conners

We kept our streak of 72-hole match bet winners going last week when Patrick Cantlay edged out Justin Thomas by two shots.

This week the tip is Sepp Straka to get the better of Corey Conners.

Canadian Conners slumped to a final-round 80 in last week’s BMW and that sorry Sunday gives him Playoffs form so far of 50-39.

And he just doesn’t get on with East Lake either.

Remembering that only 30 players take part, when taking out starting strokes Conners has form here of 26-25-17-23.

Straka hasn’t been in the same shape he was earlier in the season but 17th at Caves Valley last week was a decent enough effort.

And in three starts at East Lake, he’s twice posted the sixth best score.

Back Straka to beat Conners at -115 with bet365.

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Young to Land Top 5

We bet Cam Young for a Top 5 last week and he couldn’t quite get there after a slow start.

But 11th place following fifth at St. Jude and a six-shot victory at the Wyndham shows he’s one of the PGA TOUR’s form horses.

The New Yorker needs a huge week to persuade Keegan Bradley to give him a Ryder Cup wildcard and he’s capable of getting it here.

Back Young, who was ninth at halfway on his only East Lake start before finishing 19th, for a top five finish at +400 with BetMGM.

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How to Watch the Tour Championship 2025

• Tournament: TOUR Championship

• Location: East Lake, Atlanta, GA 

• Date: Thursday, August 21 - Sunday, August 24

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 1 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday 1 p.m-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2:30 p.m.-7 p.m. (NBC, Peacock). Sunday 12 p.m.-1:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 1:30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC, Peacock). And all four days on Sky Sports.