Kentucky Derby 2025: Picks and Betting Odds - Journalism Favored in the First Leg of the Triple Crown

Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds

-Odds by author Brian Zipse.

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My Top 5 Picks to Win the Kentucky Derby

Journalism

The deserving favorite of this year’s Kentucky Derby has methodically marched through his preps in Southern California. While it’s true he has faced short fields in his three straight graded stakes wins starting last December, he has overcome trouble or run down strong speed in each of the three. Trained by Michael McCarthy, who was an assistant to the Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, the handsome son of Curlin has had plenty of time between his races with designs of peaking at just the right time.

His smooth and long stride is that of a very good racehorse and his performances to date appear a cut above his nearest competition in this year’s Run for the Roses. In all of his races, he has been a powerful finisher who looks ideally suited for the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. Anything can happen in a race of 20 horses, but Journalism gives all appearances of being the most likely winner on Saturday. He is my top pick.

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Burnham Square

With a contentious and fast early pace expected from all the speed horses in this edition of the Kentucky Derby, my top picks will share the recurring refrain of being able to do their best running in the later stages. This son of Liam’s Map won two of his three preps this season for veteran trainer Ian Wilkes. Last time out, he surged late to just get up to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass. Still, he should have very attractive odds on Saturday.  

I like the way he has been working over the track since arriving at Churchill Downs and I appreciate his connections in Wilkes and jockey Brian Hernandez. The pair know how to win big races, and they know how to win at Churchill Downs. I have been waiting for Burnham Square to get a fast pace on a track that is not overly speed favoring. That is exactly what he should find here. He is my top longshot.

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Luxor Cafe

The quality of dirt racing in Japan can no longer be underestimated after what we have seen in big races in America the last few years. Forever Young almost won last year, and this impeccably bred son of American Pharoah looks to be of similar class. He has won his last four races in Japan, with the last one being the best yet. He comes to the United States with top connections and should have the talent to continue the good form of Japanese runners here. It would not surprise me if Japan won its first Kentucky Derby on Saturday with Luxor Cafe.

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Sovereignty

Hands down one of the best looking horses in a race filled with handsome colts, this son of Into Mischief ran a big race from off the pace to win with authority last time he was at Churchill Downs. That victory came last fall, but Sovereignty has looked good in his two starts this year, both of which came at the more speed favoring surface at Gulfstream Park. I have little doubt that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will have this Godolphin homebred in great condition to make a strong late run on Saturday.

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Final Gambit

Continuing the trend of liking late runners best in this year’s field, this son of Not This Time is an attractive longshot in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Trained by Louisville native Brad Cox, the handsome gray has finished with a flourish to win his last two starts going away. Those came on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park, but he is bred to handle the main track and Churchill Downs and has looked good training there. This lightly raced colt is moving forward nicely with each race and will be passing horses down the stretch.

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My Picks for the Kentucky Derby - Best Bets to Make 

• $5 Exacta Box (Costs $100 total) - Journalism, Burnham Square, Luxor Café, Sovereignty, Final Gambit 

• $1 Trifecta  Part Wheel (Costs $40 total) - Journalism over Burnham Square, Luxor Café, Sovereignty, Final Gambit over Burnham Square, Luxor Café, Sovereignty, Final Gambit, Rodriguez, Grande, Publisher, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman, Chunk of Gold 

• $1 Trifecta  Part Wheel (Costs $40 total) - Journalism over Burnham Square, Luxor Café, Sovereignty, Final Gambit, Rodriguez, Grande, Publisher, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman, Chunk of Gold over Burnham Square, Luxor Café, Sovereignty, Final Gambit

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