Image for Brian Zipse Brian Zipse - October 14, 2022

Ohio Derby Predictions, Picks, Betting Odds (Thistledown)

Ohio Derby Odds and Post Position

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Ohio Derby at Thistledown!

PP Horse Odds Jockey Trainer
1 BARESE 9/2
BET HERE
K Carmouche M Maker
2 BRIGADIER GENERAL 12/1
BET HERE
R Gutierrez D Stewart
3 DROPPIN G’S 8/1
BET HERE
M Franklin J Antonuik
4 ETHEREAL ROAD 4/1
BET HERE
R Bejarano D W Lukas
5 WHITE ABARRIO 7/2
BET HERE
T Gaffalione S Joseph Jr
6 PINEAPPLE MAN 10/1
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T D Houghton M Maker
7 TAWNY PORT 3/1
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I Ortiz Jr B Cox
8 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY 6/1
BET HERE
B J Hernandez Jr K McPeek

Ohio Derby Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$5 Trifecta Part Wheel – White Abarrio over Ethereal Road and Tawny Port over Ethereal Road, Tawny Port, Barese and Classic Causeway = $30

$5 Trifecta Part Wheel – White Abarrio over Ethereal Road, Tawny Port, Barese and Classic Causeway over Ethereal Road and Tawny Port = $30

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick White Abarrio (7/2).

Take a look at our Horse Racing Calculator to ensure your bets!

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Ohio Derby Tyler Gaffalione White Abarrio

Tawny Port, White Abarrio and Classic Causeway, who all contested the Kentucky Derby last out, top a strong field of eight sophomore males entered in Saturday’s $500,000 Ohio Derby at Thistledown.

A winner of the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland two starts back, Tawny Port has been named the morning line favorite in the 9 furlong test. In the picture in the stretch, he finished seventh behind Rich Strike six weeks ago at Churchill Downs.

Trained by Brad Cox, the son of Pioneerof the Nile has won three of six starts overall and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. on Saturday

White Abarrio, a troubled 16th in the Kentucky Derby, should also vie for favoritism in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.

Trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr. he was a winner of his two starts before the first Saturday in May, which included the Grade 1 Florida Derby and the Grade 3 Holy Bull, both at Gulfstream Park.

Classic Causeway, who was 11th in the Kentucky Derby, makes his first start since being moved to the barn of Kenny McPeek after being trained by Brian Lynch.

The Giant’s Causeway colt was a winner of two graded stakes at Tampa Bay Downs to begin 2022, including the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.

Ethereal Road, an impressive winner of the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico for trainer D. Wayne Lukas most recently, is another who should attract plenty of attention in the eight-horse field.

Ohio Derby Predictions and Race Analysis

Tawny Port

This one actually ran a very solid race in the Kentucky Derby. Taking advantage of the blistering pace, he rallied up to be in with a shot in mid-stretch. He could not sustain the rally, though, and was beaten by six others.

He once again should get a solid pace in front of him, but this field is anything but easy. A son of Pioneerof the Nile, he has shown nice progression in his career, which includes a solid victory in the Grade 3 Lexington two starts back.

A repeat of his last two makes him an obvious threat here, but I do believe this one is clearly a tougher field than his stakes win at Keeneland. I like him more for second or third on Saturday than I do for the win.

White Abarrio

The only Grade 1 winner in the field, he was beaten early in the Kentucky Derby when crowded and then squeezed back. From there, he had a very wide trip which gave him little chance to recover. Draw a line through the Derby and he becomes the horse to beat on Saturday.

A good looking winner of his two previous starts, he beat good horses in both the Florida Derby and the Holy Bull. With solid tactical speed, look for the son of Race Day to sit a good stalking trip on Saturday and get first run at the leaders.

My only real question with him is whether he is as good away from Gulfstream Park. I am betting he is. He is the top pick.

Ethereal Road

An impressive winner of an Oaklawn Park maiden race five starts back and the listed Sir Barton Stakes most recently, this son of Quality Road was beaten in three graded stakes tries in between.

A narrow loss in the Grade 2 Rebel was followed by a seventh in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and a fourth in the Grade 3 Lexington. As good as he has looked in his wins, he needs to prove he can get it done in graded stakes competition.

I believe he can with the right trip and pace scenario, both of which he can get on Saturday. With speed in here to set the table for his rally, I consider him one of the biggest threats to my top pick.

Barese

One of two New York-breds in the field trained by Mike Maker, this son of Laoban comes in off a disappointing third-place finish last time against fellow state-breds. I am willing to forgive that effort, though, as he was probably less than at his sharpest dropping into a sprint.

Before that, his form was quite solid, winning his first three starts before running a decent race in a very tough edition of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial.

He should be more at home returning to a two-turn race, and while he is not one of my top picks, he is dangerous at his best.

Classic Causeway

After consecutive graded stakes victories at Tampa Bay Downs, this handsome son of Giant’s Causeway has finished 11th in both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. His trip at Churchill Downs was not good, but it inspires little confidence after a poor run at Gulfstream Park.

He has class, though, and perhaps the barn change will be a positive. I do believe he is better than he was when well beaten by White Abarrio, but I’m far from sold on him beating that rival in this spot.

Speed is always dangerous, and he should be out there on Saturday, but the pace is likely to be contested. I respect him, but do like a few others better.

Droppin G’s

Sent off as a big longshot last out in the Grade 3 Matt Winn at Churchill Downs, he was beaten 14 lengths by the battling duo of Cyberknife and Howling Time.

Before that his only two wins came in maiden and allowance company on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Winless on dirt and facing his toughest test yet, I find him hard to recommend here.

Brigadier General

After a poor stretch of races, this son of Street Sense has been pretty solid in his last three starts. The problem is that two of those came in maiden company, and in the last one he could not keep up late in his first try against winners.

His trainer Dallas Stewart is known for live longshots, but a big run here would still be a surprise. One of many here with some early speed, the step up in class is likely to be a little too much for him to handle on Saturday.

Pineapple Man

The other Maker-trained New York-bred, this son of Gormley has shown improvement of late while running against fellow state-breds. Having said that, he failed twice when second in allowance company after breaking his maiden nicely three starts back.

Now he jumps up into solid graded stakes competition as he faces open company for the first time. He has the speed to be competitive early, but I do not like his chances to stick around when the real running begins.

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How to Watch the Ohio Derby

Ohio Derby Race Information
What Ohio Derby (Grade 3)
Location Thistledown
Time Saturday, June 25 — 5:35pm Eastern time
How to Watch TVG
Purse $500,000

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AUTHOR

Brian Zipse

225 Articles

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

Email: [email protected]

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