Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Marte and Seager Are Heating Up

Arizona’s Ketel Marte and Texas’s Corey Seager have been two of the hottest hitters in the league over the last week. We are going to capitalize on their hot streaks today, betting on both sluggers to go deep. We’ll share why below, as well as one other anytime home run bet we’ll be placing today.

The odds we use for our home run bets are taken from Caesars Sportsbook. Head over to Caesars to create an account with our promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens” offer.

Home Run Picks for Monday, May 12

Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers) 1+ Home Runs (+500) at Caesars

Kerry Carpenter hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties, but he has dominated right-handed pitching throughout his career. In 2025, the 27-year-old is batting .305 with seven home runs against righties. We expect that trend to continue tonight with Tanner Houck (0-2, 6.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) on the mound. 

Houck is a right-handed pitcher who has struggled badly in 2025. His 7.88 ERA in April resulted from his inability to limit baserunners, and it remains a problem in May. In his last start, the Red Sox starter allowed three runs (2 earned) on six hits, two walks, and a home run over 4 ⅔ innings. 

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Josh Smith (Texas Rangers) 1+ Home Runs (+600) at Caesars

Josh Smith has been tearing the cover off the ball over the last week. He is batting .423 with a 1.080 OPS over the last seven days, though he has just one home run. Smith isn’t known for his power, but his red-hot bat and a struggling rookie on the mound make us willing to lock in the longshot bet.

Colorado will have 23-year-old Chase Dollander (2-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) starting tonight. The young righty is one of the team’s top prospects, but it doesn’t look like he’s ready for the big leagues this season. He has been better at preventing late home runs, but allowed eight over his first three starts.

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Ketel Marte (Arizona Diamondbacks) 1+ Home Runs (+450) at Caesars

Ketel Marte returned from the IL to make his season debut on May 2, and he is already starting to heat up. He is 4-10 with three home runs over his last three games, helping Arizona to win some key games in LA. We love his chances to keep that going tonight with an aging star on the mound for the Giants.

Justin Verlander (0-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) will be the first pitcher Marte sees tonight. The 42-year-old is far from the ace he once was, as his numbers have shown. We expect him to struggle against an Arizona lineup that has been hitting well, leading to some mistakes that Marte can take advantage of.

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