Best MLB Home Run Props Today: The Astros May Have Found Their Next Star

You may not know Cam Smith’s name quite yet, but the Astros rookie has been making a name for himself over the last month. His average continues to climb, and now he’s flashing some serious power. With a trip to Coors Field on the schedule for today, we love his chances to add another home run tonight. We’ll share why below, along with two other prop bets we love.

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 3

Kyle Stowers Anytime Home Run (+400) at Caesars Sportsbook

We don’t often look to the Marlins for home run prop bets, but we love Kyle Stowers’ chances to go deep today. The 27-year-old has 14 on the season, with four coming over his previous eight games. The outfielder has become a reliable source of power since being traded to Miami last season, and has yet to show signs of cooling off. 

The other reason we like Stowers is that he’ll be facing David Festa (2-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) on the mound. The young Twins starter allowed six home runs over five starts last month as he continues to struggle to adapt to the MLB. While he bounced back to deliver 5 2/3scoreless innings in his previous start, there is no reason to believe that will carry over against the Marlins.

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Cam Smith Anytime Home Run (+380) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Astros may have found a star in rookie Cam Smith. The 22-year-old broke out in June to post a .303 average with four home runs. Two of those deep balls have come over the last six days, and we think he will add another in hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Smith will be facing a struggling Rockies’ starter in Kyle Freeland (1-9, 5.56 ERA, 1.60 WHIP). While his home run total has been low, he is giving hitters plenty of opportunities. He has never faced Smith before, but he has allowed a brutal .340 OBA against right-handed hitters like him in 2025. 

Given the favorable price, Smith’s hot bat, and the game’s location, there is plenty of reason to lock this bet in.

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Jo Adell Anytime Home Run (+350) at Caesars Sportsbook

The 26-year-old Angels slugger has broken out in 2025 and is just two home runs shy of his total from last season. The center fielder’s ability to hit for a higher average has boosted his power numbers, putting him on a path to make the upcoming MLB All-Star game.

Adell has been especially hot over the last month, finishing June with 11 long balls. He hasn’t been able to hit for average on the road, but he’ll be facing a starter who has a .308 OBA at home.

Another reason we are locking in this home run prop bet is Braves’ starter Bryce Elder (2-5, 5.82 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). It seemed the 26-year-old was settling in, but he has allowed 18 earned runs over his last three starts (11 innings). He has allowed five home runs during that span, with three coming in his previous start.

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