Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Jackson Chourio Set for Success Against the Nats

Jackson Chourio broke out in a big way for the Brewers after a cold start to his rookie season. While his average is down in 2025, the 21-year-old is on pace to shatter his other numbers from last season. We believe he’ll take another step towards topping his 2024 home run total tonight with a struggling lefty on the mound.

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Below, we’ll share why we love this bet, as well as two others we are locking in. We’ll be using odds from Caesars Sportsbook for all three of today’s home run props. If you’d like to give Caesars a try, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer.

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Home Run Picks for Friday, July 11

Jackson Chourio Anytime Home Run (+400) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Brewers' young phenom had a forgettable June but has been fantastic over his last 12 games. He is batting .333 with three home runs and 10 RBIs during that span. He came up with some big hits in the Crew’s sweep of the Dodgers to start the week, and tonight’s matchup has us believing that will continue tonight.

Chourio will be facing National’s rookie Shinnosuke Ogasawara (0-1, 13.50 ERA, 2.63 WHIP). He made his MLB debut last weekend but was unable to generate outs. He allowed four earned runs on seven hits over just 2 2/3 innings. While we don’t know the lefty’s ceiling in the big leagues, we know he won’t match up well against Chourio.

The 21-year-old center fielder has been crushing left-handed pitching all season. He owns a .356 average and a .606 slugging percentage over 104 at-bats this season. While he hasn’t hit well when at home this season, we believe his confidence against lefties will fuel him to take the struggling Ogasawara deep. If not, then he’ll have plenty more chances against the bullpen with the highest ERA in the league (5.73).

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Jose Ramirez Anytime Home Run (+290) at Caesars Sportsbook

Jose Ramirez is once again putting his name into the AL MVP conversation. The veteran star dominated in Houston to start the week, going 5-12 at the plate with a home run in each game. He’s gone deep four times in the last week, and also owns the ninth-best average in the league (.301) this season.

Another reason we like this bet is that Sean Burke (4-8, 4.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) will be on the mound for the White Sox. The 25-year-old is supposed to be a big part of the team’s future, but has yet to find any consistency. We saw that in his last start, where he allowed the Blue Jays to hit three home runs over five innings. 

Ramirez hasn’t had a hit in three at-bats against Burke, but that will change as the star’s bat will remain hot.

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Pete Alonso Anytime Home Run (+290) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Mets’ slugger has been heating up over the last week as he continues the best campaign of his career. While his average has dropped since his incredible start to the season, it remains well over his career average. 

Alonso has been a far more dangerous hitter on the road this season. He owns a .305 average and has hit 13 of his 21 home runs outside of Citi Field.

The Royals will have Michael Lorenzen (5-8, 4.61 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) starting tonight’s game. The veteran hasn’t been great for a disappointing Kansas City team, and has the sixth-highest home run total in the league. While Alonso has struggled against the starter in the past, he’ll face a very different version of him tonight.

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