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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, June 22

Written by: Michael Savio
Published June 22, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Bets Today June 22

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Padres -120

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The run line is tempting here, but the Giants are covering 70.3% of games where they are the underdog this season. That is the league's third-best mark and far better than the Padres' 44.2% cover rate as the favorite. The Padres will get the win tonight, but we expect the game to stay close, given their offensive struggles. 

There are a few reasons we love the Padres to get the win, but the biggest is Blake Snell (3-6, 3.48 ERA). The veteran had a tough start to the season but turned things around in April. He has made three starts in June, pitching a total of 19 innings and allowing just 1 run and seven hits. That includes his last start, where he threw six scoreless innings and struck out 12 against the Rays. Snell has also been great in day games, with a 1.96 ERA across four starts. We expect him to shut down the Giants, allowing their offense to do just enough to get the win.

Another big reason we love this bet is that Alex Woods (2-1, 4311 ERA) will be on the mound for the Giants. The starter has been absolutely awful at home this season, with a 6.00 ERA across four starts. He has also been terrible in day games, with an 8.49 ERA across three starts. Those are some ugly numbers that he will need to overcome today. While the Padres' offense may not be able to take full advantage of those struggles, they can tag him for at least a few runs, leading to a low-scoring win.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins

Odds Courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook

My Pick: Pirates +115

At one point, the Pirates looked like they could contend in the NL Central this season. Those hopes seem to be over, as the Pirates went on their longest losing streak (9 games) of the year. They were swept by the Brewers once and the Cubs twice and are now desperate for a series win against the Marlins. Miami has also enjoyed some early season success, but their record has been inflated by playing one of the easiest schedules in baseball. They faced a tougher challenge in Toronto earlier this week and looked more like the team we expected them to be. While Pittsburgh isn’t on Toronto’s level, there are a couple of reasons why we love them to hand Miami another loss tonight.

The first reason is Miami starter Braxton Garrett (3-2, 3.88 ERA). The 25-year-old has looked good this season, but most of that success has come on the road. Garrett owns a 6.35 ERA at home and a 7.36 ERA in night games, and Pittsburgh has the offense to be able to capitalize on that. The Pirates have fared well against lefties this season (.264 BA) and have 42 of their 67 home runs on the road. We love their chances to get to Barrett early, giving their pitching enough of a cushion to lock in a badly needed-win.

Speaking of the Pirates' pitching, starter Mitch Keller is another reason that we love this bet. The veteran has dipped a bit in June but will be facing a Miami offense that has struggled to hit right-handed pitching and has scored three runs over their last two games. Their offensive numbers are solid but inflated by the historic season of Luis Arraez. We like Keller’s chances of cruising through most of this game, able to do just enough to support the offense tonight.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Odds Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

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While the Phillies have begun to turn their season around, they will be facing one of the best teams in baseball today in the Braves. Atlanta has won seven straight games and has yet to lose a series in June. The Phillies have also yet to lose a June series, but that streak will end today. The Phillies' offense has sputtered a bit of late, and they have scored just eight runs over their last three games. Those struggles won’t end today as Philadelphia faces one of the top young arms in the league. 

Bryce Elder (5-1, 2.60 ERA) will be taking the mound for the Braves tonight, which is the biggest reason that we are locking in this bet. The 24-year-old had a 1.72 ERA in May, holding teams to two or fewer runs in all six of his starts. His first two starts in June were rough, but he bounced back last week against the Rockies by allowing one run over six innings. Elder has a 1.76 ERA across five road starts this season, and we love his chances to lower that even more today as he faces a Phillies team with a .234 batting average over the last week.

The Phillies will send Taijuan Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA) to the mound today. He has been fantastic in June, allowing four runs across 24 combined innings. However, Walker does not have a good history against the Braves. This Atlanta lineup has a career .361 batting average against the veteran starter, and now they have one of the most dangerous players in baseball in Ronald Acuna Jr. Expect Walker’s red-hot June to come to a sudden halt today as the Braves cruise to an easy win.

More of Our MLB Picks for Today

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

412 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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