Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade These Offenses on Thursday

There is a loaded MLB slate on Thursday and I have selected two NRFI bets starting with Royals vs. Mariners. Both offenses have been very bad in 2025 and I am going to trust that trend.

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Royals vs. Mariners - Seth Lugo vs. Bryan Woo (10:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook

My favorite NRFI of the slate is in Seattle where the Mariners will take on the Royals. Seth Lugo is fresh off a Cy Young caliber season in 2024 and he will square off against Bryan Woo who has been unhittable.

Lugo enters this matchup at 5-5 with a 2.74 ERA in 88.2 innings. In his last three starts he has only allowed two earned runs in 18 innings while striking out 24.

Lugo has been the hottest pitcher in the league as of late and I am going to continue to take his side. He has fanned 76 batters and has a 1.08 WHIP.

Woo has been just as impressive with a 7-4 record and a 2.93 ERA this season. He has posted great statistics the past few seasons and is one of the best NRFI pitchers in the league.

Woo is coming off a six-inning shutout against the Rangers where he struck out nine batters. His best attribute is the ability to go deep into games which is great when backing a NRFI wager.

The Royals have struggled hitting with runners in scoring position and it shows as their team batting average ranks towards the bottom of the league. The Mariners have been slightly better, but by no means impressive.

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Brewers vs. Mets - Jose Quintana vs. David Peterson (7:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Mets are 3-14 over their last 17 games as they aren’t hitting well. They host the Brewers on Thursday and I expect this game to be a slugfest.

Jose Quintana will get the start for Milwaukee as he enters this contest with a 6-2 record. In 60 innings he has a 3.3 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

Quintana is not a guy that will light up the radar gun and get a ton of strikeouts, but he is one of the best locators in the game.

New York will go with David Peterson who is 5-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 2025. The Mets have been the worst team in baseball over the last few weeks, but that's mainly because of the lack of offense.

Peterson has struck out 83 batters in 95.1 innings and he is due for a great start. He has been getting hit around the ballpark, but things need to change for the Mets and that starts in this matchup.

The offenses haven’t been the best this season and I trust the starting pitchers to get the job done.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Twins vs. Marlins - David Festa vs. Eury Perez: Both starters have ERAs north of five and give up the long ball. This should be the most popular YRFI on Thursday. 

• White Sox vs Dodgers - Aaron Civale vs. Dustin May: The total for this game is set at nine and is heavily juiced. Both pitchers haven’t been the best and the Dodgers have the strongest offense in baseball.

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