Best NRFI Bets Today: Paul Skenes is on the Bump

There are only four games on Thursday in Major League Baseball and I have selected two NRFI wagers that have a lot of value. Anytime Paul Skenes takes the mound, the Pirates NRFI is on our betting card.

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Reds vs. Pirates - Brady Singer vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-165) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

The Pirates will battle the Reds in an NL Central matchup on Thursday. Paul Skenes will take the mound against Brady SInger and I expect the game to be low scoring. 

There's no question that Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the game and he keeps improving. He is currently the favorite to bring home the NL Cy Young award.

Skenes has a 2.02 ERA to go with 154 strikeouts in 138 innings. His 154 strikeouts are the eighth most in 2025 and I expect him to keep climbing this season.

The Reds will counter with Singer who is 9-8 with a 4.36 ERA. He started the season very well and has been in a slump recently, but this is a perfect spot to get back on track against Pittsburgh’s offense. 

The Pirates are hitting .233 as a club which is the fifth worst in baseball. Skenes has a bad record because Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been reliable in 2025. 

The Reds haven’t been much better at the plate as they are hitting .246 as a team. I think Skenes will overpower them on Thursday and go deep into the game. 

The total is currently set at 7.5 which is extremely low. These pitchers can deal and they should start the game with authority.

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White Sox vs. Mariners - Shane Smith vs. Logan Gilbert (4:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

The second NRFI on my card is in the White Sox vs Mariners game. Both offenses have been atrocious this season and I think the pitchers will control the pace. 

Shane Smith gets the start for Chicago, and he is 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA. I like Smith in this spot due to his recent two starts where he hasn’t allowed over two runs in either appearance.  

Smith has 85 strikeouts in 91 innings averaging almost one per inning. If Smith limits the walks in the first inning he should shut down Seattle’s offense. 

The Mariners will go with Logan Gilbert, who is 3-4 with a 3.45 ERA. He has elite strikeout pitches as he has fanned 112 batters in 78.1 innings. 

Gilbert is averaging eight strikeouts a game over his last three starts and now faces a bad White Sox offense that hasn’t competed well at the plate. Gilbert has the talent to dominate this contest. 

The White Sox hold the second worst team batting average in baseball hitting just .229 as a club. I think Gilbert will expose this fact on Thursday and keep Chicago off balance. 

I anticipate the first inning, like the game, to be low scoring.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Athletics vs. Nationals - Jacob Lopez vs. Mitchell Parker: These left-handed pitchers have been inconsistent this season and the Athletics have the seventh best team batting average in baseball. 

• Marlins vs Braves - Eury Perez vs. Carlos Carrasco: Miami has the tenth best batting average in baseball and I think the pitchers are in trouble on Thursday.

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